inflation

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that if inflation does not fall back to the 2% target level, interest rates will need to be raised.He is open to the possibility of inflation starting to decline and is willing to accept that the current inflation issue stems from supply shocks that are about to fade, but he hopes to see evidence that this shock is indeed fading.

Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that the Fed's mission is to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target. Inflation remains too high and is not solely due to oil price factors.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in the September meeting, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that what truly deserves attention is the comprehensive hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance. All 12 officials rarely supported the decision unanimously, and the dot plot clearly indicates another rate hike within the year, with tightening becoming a consensus.The core message conveyed by the meeting is that the Federal Reserve is determined to rebuild its credibility against inflation at all costs. The economic forecast summary raised growth expectations and lowered the unemployment rate, reflecting confidence in a soft landing; however, the path for core inflation to decline has been significantly delayed, indicating that the higher-ups have accepted the reality of "higher for longer." Chairman Waller's statement is particularly crucial, placing anti-inflation efforts as an absolute priority. Even though the current economic fundamentals are robust and oil price fluctuations are supply-side factors, the Fed still chooses to respond with a tightening stance. This "better to be too tight than too loose" position has temporarily pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while suppressing gold.For the cryptocurrency market, uncertainty has actually decreased. A clearer policy path helps compress risk premiums, which is not a bad thing for risk assets in the medium to long term. The key going forward lies in data validation: if employment and growth remain strong, rate hikes may continue but at a slower pace; if the economy shows cracks, there is still room for a policy shift. Overall, the Federal Reserve is trading short-term pain for long-term policy credibility.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The latest dot plot shows that 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike by 2026, with the median rate expectations for 2027 and 2026 both at 4.1%.Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that recent data shows the U.S. economy is performing strongly, and the labor market remains resilient, but inflation is too high and has persisted for too long. The FOMC is currently not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He mentioned that the main issue for the current economy is not growth, but inflation. Waller also noted that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy, increased capital competition, and geopolitical factors.From the announcement of the decision to Waller's press conference, spot gold briefly fell by about $100, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 40 points and broke through the 100 mark, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield rose by about 5 basis points, with U.S. stocks turning lower across the board. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an additional rate hike of about 33 basis points this year and expect a cumulative increase of about 75 basis points by June next year.

Bitcoin Magazine released a discussion video featuring Peter Schiff, Grace Remington, and Sean Hagan. Schiff stated in the program that the bond market did not just collapse recently, but had already collapsed in 2020, and the subsequent trend is merely a slow unwinding process. He connected topics such as the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, and central banks around the world buying gold, believing that the Federal Reserve has already lost the war against inflation.Schiff also warned that if rising interest rates trigger a stock market sell-off, it would be deeply bearish for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, while Washington's political capital has shifted to opposing crypto assets. He mentioned that the dollar crisis may be in its early stages and questioned the credibility of the symbolic interest rate hikes that the Federal Reserve might undertake. He also discussed how long the bear market in U.S. Treasuries might last, as well as the combination of fiscal spending cuts and higher interest rates that he believes is truly needed to lower inflation.At the end of the program, Schiff and the host debated whether Bitcoin has actual asset backing, comparing the differences between tokenized gold and Bitcoin in terms of counterparty risk and monetary endorsement. Schiff believes that gold has risen to $5,500 while Bitcoin has retraced 23% from its historical high, suggesting that Bitcoin priced in gold may have peaked in 2021.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that potential economic growth is higher, but the issue lies with inflation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that the summer data did not indicate to him that the inflation situation has improved.

In the preview of the press conference with Waller, the market is focused on whether he can rectify the communication mishap from July and clearly explain the logic behind interest rate hikes.Analysts from the French Foreign Trade Bank expect Waller to view interest rate hikes as a necessary measure to ensure inflation returns to target. In addition, the market will pay attention to Waller's views on inflationary pressures caused by energy and tariffs, as well as how he responds to Trump's calls for rate cuts, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, respectively, compared to the June expectations of 3.3%, 2.5%, and 2.1%.

The Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections show that the median PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, which is a slight adjustment compared to the June expectations of 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%.

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement pointed out that inflation remains high.

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that interest rate hikes will support inflation's return to the 2% target "more promptly."

In the preview of the press conference with Waller, the market is focused on whether he can clearly explain the policy decisions and avoid the communication mishap from July. Analysts at French Foreign Trade Bank expect Waller to explain the interest rate hike as a necessary measure to control inflation.If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as scheduled, the market will pay attention to Waller's views on inflationary pressures. Reuters points out that Waller needs to respond to Trump's demands for interest rate cuts in a sensitive political environment and emphasize the independence of the Federal Reserve.