V-shaped reversal

Greeks.live: The cryptocurrency market has experienced a V-shaped reversal for two consecutive weeks, and the current tight liquidity situation in the market will continue

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that interest rate cuts seem to be a long way off, and some economies are even beginning to explore further rate hikes. The current tight market liquidity situation is expected to persist. There are no significant events in the crypto space that could impact the market, but the FTX claims and several hearings are worth paying attention to. The cryptocurrency market has been relatively weak recently, especially the altcoins represented by ETH.The entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a V-shaped reversal for two consecutive weeks, with volatility significantly decreasing. Dvol has rebounded, and the current short- to medium-term IV has dropped to around 50%, significantly below the average level.Key events this week:5/14 TuesdayFederal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB Governing Council member Knot will jointly attend a meetingOpenAI press conferenceJudicial results of Tornado Cash developer and Samourai Wallet co-founder5/15 WednesdayU.S. April CPIU.S. April retail sales dataFTX opens claims window5/16 ThursdayFederal Reserve Governor Bowman speaksU.S. initial jobless claims for the week5/17 FridaySeveral FOMC voting members speak

Greeks.live: The cryptocurrency market experienced a V-shaped reversal last week, with April becoming the month with the deepest correction in nearly a year

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that there are fewer important macro events and cryptocurrency-related events this week. Last week was a week full of news, and cryptocurrencies indeed experienced significant fluctuations. The characteristic of cryptocurrencies being influenced by various news remains evident. This week there are several macro-related messages, but the impact is limited. Unless something unexpected happens, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the current interest rates for the next few months.The entire cryptocurrency market saw a V-shaped reversal last week, with April becoming the month with the deepest correction in the past year. Dvol has rebounded, and currently, the medium to short-term IV is stabilizing around 55%, which aligns with our judgment from last week. The IV of major term options will gradually move towards a stable state of 55%-60%. In the short term, one can choose terms and prices with lower IV to continue purchasing options, which offers a high cost-performance ratio.In the cryptocurrency interest rate market, Bitfinex spot whales have begun to consistently bottom-fish, and the green leaf interest rate market often encounters orders with annualized rates of 20%. When encountering suitable interest rate orders, one can actively trade, and using high-interest models may yield surprises.
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