ChainCatcher news, Investors Edge Market and Research Director John Choong stated that after the release of the non-farm payroll report in November, the market predicts a greater than 90% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month, which has exceeded market expectations. Traders seem to focus on the fact that while the U.S. job market shows no signs of cooling, it also shows no signs of heating up. However, Choong's interpretation of the data is different.He believes that the non-farm payroll data for November indicates that last month's weakness was merely a temporary phenomenon caused by the hurricane, and the U.S. labor market is resilient. The Federal Reserve needs to carefully "thread the needle," as they cannot cut rates too early if inflation remains high. He expects rate cut expectations to be repriced, "because today's strong data challenges the view of a rate cut in December."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that if the progress of inflation decline stalls, it may require the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. If the labor market shows signs of weakness, gradually lowering interest rates would be appropriate. The labor market has rebalanced, overall cooling down, and inflation has made "considerable progress."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The labor market has significantly cooled, and is currently in a balanced state, with no need for further cooling of the labor market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Vanguard's Chief Economist Joe Davis stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, especially if the U.S. non-farm payroll data shows a solid labor market. Tonight's employment report is the last important economic indicator before the Fed makes its decision next week. Despite the impacts of Hurricane Helen and the Boeing strike, the labor market is still expected to maintain a strong foundation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose slightly after the U.S. job openings data was released, as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.The number of job openings in the U.S. for September fell to the lowest level since early 2021, with an increase in layoffs, which is consistent with a slowdown in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that vacancies in August decreased from a downwardly revised 7.86 million in July to 7.44 million.

ChainCatcher news, the CPI report on Thursday showed that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hindering the process of inflation retreat. Another piece of data indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in over a year. The market is increasingly focused on the impact of a slowing labor market, with traders betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 83.3%, while the probability of pausing the rate cut stands at 16.7%.According to 4E monitoring, after the data was released, U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then collectively closed lower again. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.05%. The cryptocurrency market mostly declined, with Bitcoin once again falling below the $60,000 mark, quoted at $60,533 before publication. Non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heating up, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index; oil prices surged over 3.5% after two days of decline, influenced by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton"; expectations for a rate cut provided support for gold prices, with spot gold rising over 0.9% at one point, ending a six-day decline, while spot silver rose over 2.2%, ending a three-day decline.The CPI increase in September exceeded expectations, intensifying discussions in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts. However, the series of statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that employment is the dominant factor in current policy, and the employment data for October will be crucial in determining the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's easing. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America currently expect that when the Federal Reserve meets again in November, it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Previously, they had called for a larger rate cut, but labor market data shows that the U.S. economy is resilient, leading them to abandon their earlier calls.JPMorgan Chase's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli and Bank of America's Economist Aditya Bhave both pointed out that Friday's employment report was the reason for their adjustment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's easing policy path. Considering the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September, they believe that the robust job market is a reason for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the vast majority of Federal Reserve policymakers believe that interest rates will significantly decline in the next 18 months, with some signs indicating that inflation may fall below target levels. Given the current rates remain so restrictive, caution must be exercised. A range of broad data suggests that the labor market is cooling, and if productivity continues to grow, this implies higher economic growth, and the neutral interest rate will also rise.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that he is willing to consider a further 50 basis point rate cut if the labor market shows unexpected weakness. The baseline expectation is for a "orderly" easing of policy, with inflation expected to continue to slow and the labor market to remain stable. Since the core PCE index remains at 2.7%, he does not want to be overly confident about inflation and will closely monitor the upcoming employment data; if job growth is significantly below 100,000 positions, a deeper exploration of the current situation will be necessary.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve seems to expect interest rates to decline further. If we continue down this path, interest rates will eventually fall to neutral levels, hoping that the labor market can remain stable in the event of Federal Reserve action. The labor market and inflation indicate that we are on the path to a soft landing, and we are deeply considering how to enhance liquidity and access the Federal Reserve's discount window.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that I will continue to take a cautious approach to further rate cuts, as the labor market has not shown any obvious signs of weakness. If the labor market weakens, it will support policy adjustments.

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by Jinshi, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that several scenarios will determine the pace of interest rate cuts, which will depend on the data. If the data performs well, it is conceivable to cut rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting or the following two meetings. If the labor market deteriorates, a consideration of a 50 basis point cut may be on the table, and if inflation data shows a reversal, it may support the view of pausing rate cuts.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated: "We are fully focused on our goals. The overall economy is strong, and we are committed to maintaining robust economic growth. Our decision today reflects an increasing confidence that the strong performance of the labor market can be sustained. The Federal Reserve can maintain the strength of the labor market through policy adjustments."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States slightly increased last week, indicating that even as the labor market slows down, the number of layoffs remains low.The U.S. Department of Labor stated on Thursday that for the week ending September 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose slightly by 2,000 to 230,000. However, last week's data collection period included the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The number of initial jobless claims often fluctuates around public holidays.In addition, the number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 31 was 1.85 million, an increase of 5,000. After surging to levels not seen since the end of 2021 in July, continuing jobless claims mostly showed a downward trend in August. This decline is consistent with the drop in the unemployment rate last month.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of new jobs added by U.S. companies last month was the lowest since early 2021, further proving that the labor market is shifting to low-speed growth. ADP data shows that private sector employment increased by 99,000 in August, with last month's increase revised down. The latest data is below all expectations.ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said, "After experiencing two years of significant growth, the downturn in the job market has caused hiring rates to fall below normal levels. Wage growth, which slowed significantly after the pandemic, is now stabilizing." Companies are scaling back hiring to cope with high costs and high interest rates. The latest data adds evidence of a slowdown in labor demand, and Federal Reserve officials have stated that they are now more concerned about risks in the labor market compared to inflation. As price pressures have largely receded from the pandemic peak, the market expects policymakers to begin cutting interest rates this month.Another report released on Thursday showed that as of August, U.S. companies' hiring plans have decreased by 41% compared to the same eight months in 2023. Announced layoff plans fell by 3.7%.

ChainCatcher message, Societe Generale stated in a report that the upcoming U.S. economic data may confirm that the labor market is steadily cooling down, providing support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and for the dollar to weaken. "If the trend is a gradual easing of the labor market, it will point towards rate cuts, but not at the pace currently expected," said a foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale. They noted that this could inject some volatility into the forex market; however, the bank still advises selling the dollar on any rebound unless the labor market completely stops easing. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated in an interview with CNBC that the current policy is the tightest moment of the entire interest rate hike cycle. He supports the Federal Reserve's new focus on the labor market, as inflation is moving towards the 2% target. All the conditions we hope to achieve for rate cuts have been met, and nearly all indicators show that the labor market is cooling down. The Federal Reserve's forecasts indicate broad support for rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Corpay's Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta stated that a key phrase in Powell's speech is that they will "make every effort to support a strong labor market while achieving further progress on price stability."In my opinion, this indeed indicates that Powell acknowledges the growing concerns among policymakers regarding the direction of the labor market. Powell did not put a 50 basis point rate cut on the table for September, which somewhat aligns with market expectations.