ChainCatcher News: The number of people in the U.S. filing for unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that after a sudden slowdown last month due to hurricanes and strikes, non-farm employment growth in November may rebound. The November non-farm payroll report could determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December.The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending November 16, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased by 6,000 to 213,000. This data covers the Veterans Day holiday, which may introduce some volatility. Although there was a surge in unemployment claims in early October due to disruptions caused by hurricanes "Helen" and "Milton" and strikes by workers at Boeing and another aerospace company, layoffs remain low, alleviating the impact of the hiring slowdown on the labor market. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, strikes and hurricanes have affected this month's non-farm payroll data, with employment growth unexpectedly declining and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Although the Federal Reserve may attribute the weakness in today's data to one-off factors, the weakness in today's data suggests that the Fed will continue its easing cycle at next week's meeting. The data is concerning, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has increased.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, BlackRock portfolio manager Rosenberg stated that today's non-farm payroll report contains a lot of noise, including data revisions and the impact of strikes, but today's data will not affect the Fed's recent trajectory.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000, expected to be 113,000, and the previous value was revised from 254,000 to 223,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Vanguard's Chief Economist Joe Davis stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, especially if the U.S. non-farm payroll data shows a solid labor market. Tonight's employment report is the last important economic indicator before the Fed makes its decision next week. Despite the impacts of Hurricane Helen and the Boeing strike, the labor market is still expected to maintain a strong foundation.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Thursday local time, U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks collectively falling. Despite the "Tech Seven Sisters" having outstanding revenue and profits, the market was disappointed with their performance guidance considering the current stock prices and valuation levels, leading to a broad sell-off. The Nasdaq fell sharply, closing down 2.76%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in October, ending a two-month rising streak; the Dow Jones closed down 0.90%, with a cumulative drop of 1.34% in October, halting a five-month rising streak; the S&P 500 fell 1.86%, with a cumulative drop of 0.99% in October, also ending a five-month rising streak.The cryptocurrency market fell collectively under the influence of U.S. stocks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, trading at $69,851, down 3.18%, having risen nearly 10% in October due to increased trading activity related to Trump. Ethereum fell 5.1%, trading at $2,516, with a cumulative drop of 4.28% in October.The U.S. dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, closing down 0.2%, but had a cumulative rise of about 3.1% in October. The dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan weakened, with the yen rising 1%, and a cumulative rise of 5.86% in October. Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated beyond expectations in October, strengthening the European Central Bank's cautious rate cut rationale, with the euro strengthening by 0.26%, but a cumulative drop of 2.25% in October. The British pound fell 0.51% against the dollar, with a cumulative drop of 3.55% in October.International crude oil continued its upward trend due to the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil rising over 2% at one point, and Brent crude closing up 1.87%, with a cumulative rise of about 2.38% in October. The demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the U.S. presidential election has driven gold prices to rise for four consecutive months, continuously hitting new highs, with spot gold having a cumulative rise of about 4.2% in October.Latest data shows that the U.S. PCE inflation in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The market is focusing on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October to be released tonight. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will significantly slow down due to temporary unemployment caused by hurricanes and strikes. It is worth mentioning that when the employment report is released this Friday, there will only be four days left until the U.S. presidential election. If the data is extremely weak, it may affect the election and increase market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, on Wednesday local time, the latest data released by the United States showed that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter slightly slowed down and fell short of expectations. The U.S. ADP employment data, known as the "little non-farm," far exceeded expectations, reaching the highest level in over a year. The mixed data reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economy.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks initially rose across the board in early trading but then sharply reversed to close lower. The Nasdaq, after hitting a new intraday high, led the decline with a drop of 0.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.22%, and the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.33%, with most of the "Tech Seven Sisters" and AI concept stocks declining. In the cryptocurrency market, the Trump trade lifted Bitcoin, which approached its historical high before retreating, currently hovering around $72,000. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin was at $72,245, down 0.23%, while Ethereum was at $2,652, up 0.71%.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index briefly rose to an intraday high of 104.44 but then turned lower, ultimately closing down 0.17%. This was due to the market lowering expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in December, with the euro rebounding against the dollar, closing up 0.35%. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and geopolitical instability led the market to favor defensive positions like gold, which continued to receive support, with spot gold hitting a new historical high on Wednesday, ultimately closing up 0.43%. The unexpected decline in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, along with reports that OPEC+ may delay its oil production increase plan, led to a rise in international oil prices on Wednesday, with WTI crude ultimately closing up 2.31% and Brent crude up 2.3%.The latest data shows that U.S. economic growth unexpectedly declined, with inflation and consumption higher than expected. A more comprehensive and closely watched non-farm payroll report for October will be released on Friday, with most in the market expecting that the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts will not change, continuing to cut by 25 basis points at the meeting on November 7-8. Meanwhile, the U.S. election is also entering a heated stage, with the latest polls showing voters leaning towards giving Trump better marks on economic issues. Global investors are also betting that Trump will win in next week's U.S. election, but regardless of the outcome, the market is expected to experience greater volatility as election day approaches. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, Wilmington Trust's bond portfolio manager Wil Stith stated that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday is hotter than anticipated, "I think they can discuss pausing the rate cuts because they have already cut rates by 50 basis points before." LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach also believes that strong job growth could persuade the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in November. However, other observers of the Federal Reserve indicate that the upcoming data on Thursday and Friday is unlikely to change the Fed's rate cut trajectory.Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "No matter what the data says, the Fed is already on a path to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and it is unlikely that the central bank will change this trajectory." Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated, "There is no reason to believe that the Fed won't cut rates by another 25 basis points in November, unless there is a significant surprise in the employment report."Currently, many traders agree with this assessment. As of last Friday, investors expected a greater than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting.

ChainCatcher news, this week is a busy week for economic data. The Fed's favored inflation indicator PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the Q3 earnings reports from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the market direction at the start of November.According to 4E monitoring, last week the three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed performances. Tesla's stock price surged, pushing the Nasdaq up about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and just a step away from its historical high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, and the Dow Jones dropped 2.6%, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines last week, with Bitcoin priced at $67,668, down 2.18% over the past seven days, and Ethereum at $2,490, nearly 10% lower over the same period.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar index approached a three-month high on Friday, rising 0.8% last week and marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, while political uncertainty led to a 1.9% decline in the yen last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the U.S. election, along with global central bank rate cut expectations, spot gold reached a historical high for three consecutive days last week before giving back some gains, but still ended the week up over 0.9%, marking its sixth consecutive week of increases. The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices up over 4% for the week.Recently, the market has increasingly anticipated a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and this week's series of economic data will test investors' bets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Q3 GDP estimate will be released, followed by the September PCE data on Thursday, and the October non-farm report on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have once again entered their routine blackout period, and the market widely believes there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut. The influx of data combined with the approaching U.S. election will intensify market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Tim Horan, Chief Investment Officer of the Fixed Income Department at Chilton Trust, stated that strong job creation confirms the Federal Reserve's actions and indicates that a soft landing is imminent.Tim Horan mentioned that the unexpectedly high 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September "allows the Federal Reserve to be absolutely pragmatic," even considering pausing (rate cuts) in November "to digest the election results without having to worry about falling behind the curve." With the job market performing quite well, the Federal Reserve can calmly adjust monetary policy, understanding how elected officials plan to handle government spending.Tim Horan stated that although officials avoid commenting on fiscal policy, "the Federal Reserve has to worry" about the continuously expanding national debt.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 74.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 23.7%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 1.8%.Before the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 10.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the non-farm payroll data for September shows that the U.S. job market added 254,000 jobs last month, and U.S. stock index futures rose. The S&P 500 futures increased by 0.7%, higher than the approximately 0.3% before the data was released. Traders are weighing the positive signals of economic strength in the report, as well as the possibility that strong job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000, expected 140,000, and the previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000.

ChainCatcher message, the interest rate strategist at Deutsche Bank stated that as long as the non-farm data generally aligns with a soft landing, the Federal Reserve does not seem to face pressure to cut rates by another 50 basis points. The strong demand for safe-haven assets due to recent geopolitical tensions has also subsided.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. September non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.The U.S. September unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for September is expected to be 140,000.

ChainCatcher news, on Wednesday local time, the ADP employment report, known as the "little non-farm," was released, showing employment data exceeding expectations and a significant improvement compared to the previous month. This indicates that despite some signs of weakness in the overall U.S. employment, it remains generally stable, and the market continues to accept the logic that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant interest rate cuts next time. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, increasing market concerns.According to 4E observations, U.S. stocks opened lower and then fluctuated slightly upward, with the Dow closing up 0.09%, the Nasdaq up 0.08%, and the S&P 500 up 0.01%. Continuing to be affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk appetite was suppressed, and Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, currently reported at $61,000, while Ethereum dropped over 4.3%, falling below $2,400 to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.In the forex and commodities market, non-U.S. currencies fell broadly, and the U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive days this week, hitting its highest level in nearly three weeks; spot gold experienced significant volatility, with prices initially dropping sharply before rebounding. Although the "little non-farm" ADP data stimulated the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, the tensions in the Middle East provided support for gold prices. The market is concerned about Israel's strikes on Iran's oil industry, with oil prices rising nearly 4% at one point.