ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that after being severely hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the U.S. rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. Overall, the labor market remains in a state of "employment growth momentum weakening, but the job market itself is not weak," which will provide a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.At the same time, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate cuts in 2025, as decision-makers will become more cautious as interest rates approach neutral levels. One risk in the forecast is the impact of the immigration policy proposed by Trump on the labor market, which currently tends to have a moderate impact, but the possibility of extreme scenarios also needs to be closely monitored. Based on non-farm data, it is believed that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points this month.

ChainCatcher news, Eric Mullis, Managing Director and Co-Head of Global Markets at Citizens, stated that the non-farm payroll report for November showed the expected rebound in hiring, with no major surprises. The slight increase in the unemployment rate and the decline in participation rate should persuade the Federal Reserve to continue its gradual easing path at the December meeting.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, showing little change. Employment in sectors such as healthcare, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance is on the rise. Retail jobs decreased. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, expected to be 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," before the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 72.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.9%.

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi reports, economists expect that the November non-farm payroll report will show that the U.S. created 200,000 jobs in November, while only 12,000 jobs were added in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Compared to the 4.1% unemployment rate in October, the unemployment rate in November may slightly rise to 4.2%. Meanwhile, after a 4.0% increase in October, average hourly wages are expected to grow by 3.9% in November. Powell stated at an event this week that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates, as the economy is still growing, the job market is stable, and inflation remains above the 2% target.TD Securities analysts, in anticipation of the November non-farm report, indicated that as the impact of the two hurricanes gradually fades, 75,000 jobs are expected to return to the average in November. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1% to 4.2%, while the month-on-month wage growth may decrease to 0.2% after a significant increase of 0.4% in October.

ChainCatcher news, BNP Paribas analyst Andrew Hespie stated that U.S. employment in November may rebound, but the non-farm payroll report may be ambiguous enough to merely support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in December. The forecast for new jobs is expected to reach 225,000, higher than the consensus estimate of 214,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.Hespie expects the 12,000 new jobs figure suppressed in October due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike to be revised. Uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections may also have somewhat restrained hiring activity in October. Hespie added that adverse weather may have limited the labor force participation rate in October, and the rebound in November could see the unemployment rate rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, ING analyst Chris Turner stated in a report that the market remains cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release in November, with the dollar holding steady.Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data could disrupt the recent strengthening trend of the dollar since Trump's election victory, although it is unlikely that the dollar will appreciate again for a long time. U.S. employment numbers are expected to rebound after a weak month last time. A growth of fewer than 200,000 jobs may be considered a "bad number," while more than 300,000 is seen as a "good number." ING suggests treating any dollar decline as a buying opportunity. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News: At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released.As of the time of writing, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is currently 71.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks fell into anxiety before the non-farm data release on Thursday, with the market cooling off at high levels, and all three major indices closed lower. The Dow Jones fell by 0.55%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%. Most large tech stocks rose, with Tesla up over 3%, reaching a two-year high.The cryptocurrency market reached a historic high after Trump announced the nomination of a crypto supporter as the chairman of the U.S. SEC, leading to a significant market surge. Bitcoin's price broke through the milestone of $100,000, peaking around $105,000, then pulled back sharply, crashing over 8% this morning, briefly touching $90,500 before quickly rebounding. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $98,240. The Bitcoin flash crash did not affect altcoins, which generally performed strongly, indicating market confidence in altcoins.In the forex commodities sector, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week exceeded expectations, and the "non-farm eve" dollar index fell about 0.6%, showing a volatile downward trend throughout the day, with most non-U.S. currencies rising. OPEC+’s decision to delay the production increase plan until April next year was in line with expectations, leading to profit-taking sell-offs, and international oil prices ultimately fell by over 0.30%. Gold prices dropped on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields strengthened after the weekly jobless claims data was released, with spot gold dipping nearly 1% at its lowest.On Thursday, economic data showed that the U.S. labor market continues to cool steadily, with the market focusing on Friday's non-farm employment data to understand the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts. Currently, the FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 70.1% probability of a rate cut by the Fed this month. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, American bank economists stated that the employment report for November will be released on Friday, and investors should pay attention to the growth rate over the past two months, especially considering the significant risk of revisions to the October data.A Wall Street Journal survey shows that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for November are expected to increase by 214,000, up from 12,000 in October. American banks expect this number to exceed 240,000 due to the impact of hurricanes and the Boeing strike. It is also expected that the labor force participation rate will rebound, causing the unemployment rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%, in line with the Wall Street Journal's expectations. American banks noted that the number of unemployment claims increased due to the impact of hurricanes but has since declined, indicating a rapid economic recovery.

ChainCatcher news, the rise of the "Trump trade" in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, last week all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones increased by 7.5% and the S&P rose by 5.7%, both marking the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq accumulated over 6%. Large tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, achieving its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia accumulating a 179.23% increase this year. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for U.S. stocks.The cryptocurrency market performed impressively in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's rise reached 54%. Altcoins experienced significant gains at the end of the month, with market share continuously expanding; Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a significant average increase in December during the second half of the year, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to strong bullish sentiment in the market.In the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell by 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, with a cumulative increase of 1.72% in November. The "Trump trade" boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward momentum and triggering a sell-off after the election; spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September of last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also become quite nuanced. While the market expects an increased probability of a rate cut in December, the space for cuts in 2025 is continuously decreasing. The "near increase, far decrease" phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about the resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This Thursday's speech by Powell and Friday's non-farm payroll data will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher News: The number of people in the U.S. filing for unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that after a sudden slowdown last month due to hurricanes and strikes, non-farm employment growth in November may rebound. The November non-farm payroll report could determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December.The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending November 16, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased by 6,000 to 213,000. This data covers the Veterans Day holiday, which may introduce some volatility. Although there was a surge in unemployment claims in early October due to disruptions caused by hurricanes "Helen" and "Milton" and strikes by workers at Boeing and another aerospace company, layoffs remain low, alleviating the impact of the hiring slowdown on the labor market. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, strikes and hurricanes have affected this month's non-farm payroll data, with employment growth unexpectedly declining and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Although the Federal Reserve may attribute the weakness in today's data to one-off factors, the weakness in today's data suggests that the Fed will continue its easing cycle at next week's meeting. The data is concerning, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has increased.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, BlackRock portfolio manager Rosenberg stated that today's non-farm payroll report contains a lot of noise, including data revisions and the impact of strikes, but today's data will not affect the Fed's recent trajectory.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000, expected to be 113,000, and the previous value was revised from 254,000 to 223,000.