ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 3 days until the next FOMC meeting, with a 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January and a 97.9% probability of no change.The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by March is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 27.0%, and the probability of no change is 72.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the market expects the bank to cut rates.TD Securities forex analysts stated that since the data is generally in line with or weaker than the European Central Bank's December forecast, this meeting should directly result in a 25 basis point rate cut. Short-term market dynamics reflect tight positioning and valuations, and we believe this will provide a good entry point for re-engaging in new long positions on the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Joseph Capurso, head of the International and Sustainable Economy Department at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that Japanese central bank officials have made many hints in the media that they might do so (i.e., raise interest rates). They may raise rates again this year, and we believe there could be two more rate hikes this year, but they might decide to wait for a while between the two hikes. Therefore, we think the Bank of Japan may raise rates again around mid-year.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, increasing the target rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. This is the largest rate hike since 2007, bringing the rate to its highest level since October 2008. Since restarting rate hikes in March last year, the Bank of Japan has raised rates three times in less than 12 months.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated in a speech that he will demand an immediate reduction in interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts at a U.S. bank stated in a report that the dollar is likely to remain at a high level in the first half of the year, and then gradually decline from historically high valuation levels.They indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariff policy still suggests a strong dollar in the short term. They also mentioned that due to concerns about the persistence of U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to halt interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States slightly increased last week, indicating that employment may continue to grow steadily in January. The severe cold weather in most parts of the United States and the wildfires in Los Angeles may increase initial claims in the coming weeks.In addition to weather factors, the job market remains stable, keeping economic growth on a normal track. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigration, tax cuts, and tariff plans may lead to inflation, which has also intensified the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy direction.Economists say that large-scale deportations and restrictions on legal immigration could hinder the labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week is not expected to result in an interest rate cut.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs stated that as the UK economy declines, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates 6 times before next year.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, and there is even a possibility of an interest rate hike until Trump's policy direction becomes clear.Ivascyn pointed out that the latest consumer survey shows that inflation expectations have risen, and inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated. He believes that Trump's policies will have a positive impact on economic growth and productivity in the long term, but may bring pressure in the short term. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious until economic data and policy direction become clearer.

ChainCatcher news, according to a CNBC survey, 18 out of 19 economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% this week, the highest level since 2008.Economists indicate that the public statements of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as well as the remarks made by Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to business leaders last week, suggest that the Bank of Japan intends to raise interest rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Kyodo News, the Bank of Japan is moving towards raising interest rates at this week's meeting.

ChainCatcher news, citing a report from Kyodo News, the Bank of Japan is moving towards raising interest rates at this week's meeting.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. economy is in a "sweet spot," but the market may be overly pessimistic about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius stated in a new report released on Monday that the key issue for monetary policy is how strongly the Trump administration implements its import tariff agenda.Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year, in June and December, and will cut rates again in 2026.Jan Hatzius said, "But the risks around this forecast are generally tilted toward further easing, partly because even if the economy performs well, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may decide to cut rates before June, and partly because while a significant rate cut by the FOMC in the event of a sharp deterioration in economic data or risk sentiment is unlikely, it is far from out of reach."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America stated that as the global market approaches Donald Trump's inauguration, the U.S. economy remains resilient. The previously released employment data is strong, retail sales data is also robust, and the core inflation rate is at 3.2%, still at a high level within the range. The cyclical and structural dynamics of the U.S. economy are consistent with the natural interest rate, which is quite close to the current Federal Reserve funds rate, but inflation remains stubbornly above the target. Based on this alone, the Federal Reserve has reason to end the easing cycle. The impact of Trump 2.0 in the U.S. and other parts of the world carries significant uncertainty, and protectionist policies may affect inflation expectations. More concerning is that excessive fiscal stimulus could impact the potential for economic performance. Contrary to market pricing, Bank of America believes that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate cuts.

ChainCatcher News: Japanese government bond yields fell on Monday as traders prepared for potential volatility ahead of Trump's inauguration. The market could be impacted not only by Trump's inaugural speech but also by the approximately 100 executive orders he plans to implement on his first day in office. Bank of Japan policymakers will closely monitor Trump's actions and investor reactions, as they have strongly hinted that they will raise rates to 0.5% on Friday if there is no market volatility.However, Mizuho Securities' chief market economist Yasunari Ueno believes that a prolonged pause is likely after this week's rate hike, which is one reason for the continued low bond yields. Ueno stated that the Bank of Japan's view is that "the closer the policy rate is to 'neutral', the more necessary it is to adjust further in a more gradual manner." "Therefore, market participants may have ample reason to believe that the interval between this week's rate hike and further normalization measures will be longer than the approximately six-month interval between the rate hike in July last year and this week's hike, especially considering that the House of Councillors election will be held in July 2025." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a group of stubborn bond traders are betting against the Federal Reserve, believing that the next move will be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. This bet emerged after the U.S. released a booming employment report on January 10, contrasting sharply with Wall Street's consensus that there will be at least one rate cut this year.Despite the mild inflation report released on Wednesday reinforcing the Fed's dovish stance and causing U.S. Treasury yields to retreat from multi-year highs, this counter-bet still exists. An institutional analysis shows that based on options related to the secured overnight financing rate, traders currently believe there is about a 25% chance the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year. Before the CPI data was released, these bets were as high as 30%. Until just over a week ago, a rate hike wasn't even being considered. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle expects the Fed to raise rates in September, stating, "This is not a crazy viewpoint."

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Among 102 economists, 65 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two times or less this year (compared to 41 out of 97 economists who had the same expectation last December). (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Jinshi, multiple sources indicate that most members of the Bank of Japan's policy committee may be inclined to raise interest rates again at the monetary policy meeting held next Thursday and Friday, which would raise the Bank of Japan's policy rate to 0.5%, a new high in 17 years.Sources say that some of the 9 committee members are cautious, and the final decision will need to be made after U.S. President-elect Trump is inaugurated and makes a statement on Monday, which could impact the market. However, sources estimate that a majority of committee members will support further tightening of monetary policy by the central bank.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Friday's overnight index swaps show that the likelihood of the Bank of Japan taking action at the meeting on January 23-24 has risen to 99%, a significant increase from 71% on Wednesday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda strengthened market expectations on Wednesday, and his comments pushed the yen higher.He stated that the central bank will make a decision on interest rate hikes next week and expressed growing confidence in wage growth. On Thursday, this signal became even more apparent. Foreign media reported that unless Trump's entry into the White House brings excessive surprises, officials at the Bank of Japan believe that the likelihood of an interest rate hike is very high. The yen is experiencing its largest weekly gain since the end of November last year. Japanese government bond yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year bond yield, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, reaching its highest level since 2008 on Wednesday.Yukio Ishizuki, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo, stated: "It is now almost certain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week; the final obstacle is Trump's policies, but I believe the market will not become extremely volatile due to his inauguration speech."