ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 8.6%, while the probability of keeping it unchanged is 91.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 52.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 44.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.7%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Yonhap News Agency, the Bank of Korea plans to further cut interest rates next year to address higher downside risks.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's median forecast for the 2025 interest rate is only a 50 basis point cut, but the Bank of Canada (BCA) expects more rate cuts. BCA analysts stated in a report that inflation is likely to be lower than the Federal Reserve's 2025 forecast, while the unemployment rate may be higher than the Federal Reserve's 2025 forecast.They stated, "Therefore, a loosening policy of more than 50 basis points will be needed." The Federal Reserve predicts an unemployment rate of 4.3% by the end of 2025, "which requires a significant improvement in the momentum of the labor market, and we believe that such a trend reversal is unlikely to occur."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting indicate that the committee unanimously believes that if the economic and price trends meet expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 54.9%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 41.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.4%.

ChainCatcher news, Shane Oliver, chief economist of AMP Financial Services in Australia, stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to start cutting interest rates in February. He indicated that the money market shows a 69% probability of a rate cut in February.Oliver mentioned that the Reserve Bank of Australia should start cutting rates by May at the latest, with at least three rate cuts expected by 2025. He stated, "It is important to note that while Trump's policies may raise inflation and interest rates in the U.S., these policies have ambiguous or even potentially negative effects on Australia's growth and inflation." Oliver added that the new committee is unlikely to change the interest rate path starting in March. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is only 10.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 89.3%.

ChainCatcher news, HSBC stated that it still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated, my prediction is that the interest rate path in 2025 will be slightly lower.Interest rates may decline significantly in the next 12 to 18 months.

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank released a report on this week's FOMC meeting, stating that the Federal Reserve meeting reinforced our fundamental view that the skip (rate cut) in January may turn into an extended pause (rate cut) in 2025. We continue to believe that the nominal neutral rate is around 3.75%, and the committee needs to maintain a restrictive stance relative to that level. Therefore, we reiterate our view that the federal funds rate may remain above 4% next year, with the baseline being no further rate cuts. The report also noted that some Federal Reserve participants have begun to incorporate the potential economic impact of President-elect Trump's policies into their forecasts, which could lead to higher inflation projections for 2025 and 2026. Regarding the labor market, Powell described it as solid but pointed out that the current level of job creation is below what is needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 53%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.6%.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of England maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, in line with market expectations, with a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, according to the SoSoValue macro sector display, on December 18th, at the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 4.25%-4.50%. For the rate cut pace next year, the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations from "four rate cuts" to "two" through the latest dot plot. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised its expectations for future core PCE inflation and GDP growth, which is consistent with Powell's remarks, all conveying a more "hawkish" signal than the market expected. Data shows that the market risk sentiment VIX index rose to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates).SoSoValue analysts stated that the FOMC proposed an unexpectedly aggressive rate cut plan, coupled with Powell's "hawkish" remarks, led to a shift in market sentiment towards panic, with U.S. Treasuries even overreacting. The U.S. stock market subsequently corrected, while the dollar strengthened. Overall, all risk assets reacted strongly to the FOMC's latest signals. Based on macro data, we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain unchanged, the dollar remains strong, and consensus-driven assets such as cryptocurrencies continue to be a destination for capital inflows. Each market correction driven by sentiment in the game is a good entry point, and we recommend maintaining risk exposure at this time.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley stated that it expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2025, each by 25 basis points, whereas the previous forecast was for three cuts of 25 basis points each.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research released a report stating that not every dip presents a buying opportunity.It indicated that while we expect Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's tone to be slightly hawkish, the Fed's updated median interest rate forecast has unsettled the market, predicting rate hikes not only in 2025 but also in 2026 and 2027. Powell hinted that it may take 1-2 years to return to the 2% inflation target, further reinforcing the hawkish sentiment. The forecasts for the following years are shocking, suggesting that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period.Stocks fell by 3%, and Bitcoin dropped by 4%. Due to a lack of retail trading activity, altcoins have struggled, suffering even greater losses, with many altcoins plummeting by 10% or more. While the impact of Trump's policies remains speculative, weak demand from European economies and China may suppress global growth (and inflation). Meanwhile, a stronger dollar could put pressure on corporate earnings for U.S. companies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Bank of Japan has kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, indicating that the pace of rate cuts will slow down. The U.S. stock market fell, erasing earlier gains.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is set to decline for the 10th consecutive trading day, which would mark the longest streak of daily declines since October 1974, when it fell for 11 consecutive days. All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 are down, with real estate leading the decline.Higher interest rates are generally seen as a drag on the stock market, increasing the attractiveness of lower-risk assets while suppressing companies' ability to grow earnings. (Jin Shi)