ChainCatcher news, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks said in a television interview with Latvian public broadcaster on Monday that the European Central Bank should lower interest rates next month. He stated, "Of course, there will be discussions, but I firmly believe that given the current state of the European economy, we must lower rates again in December." The European Central Bank has already cut rates three times and is expected to do so again next month. The PMI data released last Friday showed an unexpected contraction in the eurozone's private sector economy, with the market betting that the bank may further cut rates by 50 basis points. However, data expected to be released later this week is anticipated to show that the inflation rate in November will be above the European Central Bank's target of 2%.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro analyst Adam posted on platform X that this week is Thanksgiving, with economic events and data concentrated on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Thursday and Friday, and the recent performance of crypto-related U.S. stocks has been significant, showing a high correlation with crypto, so it’s worth paying close attention.Bitcoin is just one step away from 100,000 USD, needing just a final push. ETH also rebounded significantly last week, driving altcoins to rise across the board, with the crypto market's trend gradually shifting back from Meme to the main market. There was a slight pullback over the weekend, but the market's absorption capacity is very strong, with bulls being very aggressive in the spot bull market. The options market remains relatively stable, and large trades and market interest rates are worth monitoring.Currently, the implied volatility (IV) for major maturities is at a relatively low level, making it a good opportunity to position some mid-to-long-term options with decent cost-effectiveness. The crypto interest rate market, particularly Bitfinex, has been relatively stable recently, and it’s advisable to actively transact when suitable interest rate orders arise, especially during market movements.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed sharply different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level, which is the interest rate that balances the Federal Reserve's various economic goals.Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are."In contrast, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Federal Reserve officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, ECB Vice President Guindos stated that the European Central Bank's interest rates will be further lowered, but due to escalating trade tensions and global conflicts, officials should not act hastily.Previously, the European Central Bank warned in its "Financial Stability Assessment" that trade now poses an additional threat to the economies of the 20 Eurozone countries. Guindos expressed confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target next year and dismissed claims that inflation would fall below this target. With less than four weeks until the last interest rate meeting of the year, investors expect the borrowing costs to be lowered for the fourth time since June. Although further easing of monetary policy seems possible in 2025, the pace and extent of rate cuts remain uncertain, and disputes among policymakers are increasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Out of 106 analysts, 94 believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% in December. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, on the 20th, Hong Yixin, President and CEO of State Street Global Advisors, attended the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit and stated that this year the global stock market has recorded growth, inflation is slowing down, and central banks around the world are cutting interest rates. Therefore, looking ahead to 2025, the global economy is expected to continue its soft landing, and there is optimism about global economic growth.In addition, she expects that the profits of American technology companies will continue to rise. Although U.S. stocks are currently recording growth, there is still room for further increases in the future, so she is very optimistic about the U.S. stock market; she is also optimistic about European and emerging market stocks, as a weaker dollar is a favorable factor for emerging markets. At the same time, she anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, but will lower its forecast for the number of rate cuts in 2025 to three times, with rates possibly dropping to 3.75% by the end of next year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged until December is 40.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.1%.The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 30.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 54.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 15.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "The decision to cut interest rates is an acknowledgment of the growing confidence that the inflation rate is likely to reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target—this confidence is partly based on signs that the labor market and product market have been tending toward balance in recent months," said Kansas City Fed President George in remarks prepared for a speech to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce.He stated that while the progress toward returning to the 2% target means that now is an appropriate time to cut rates, "how much further rates will decline or what they will ultimately settle at remains to be seen." On the current issue of federal government spending, George indicated that because the Federal Reserve will fulfill its responsibility to keep inflation at the established 2% target, large fiscal deficits will not trigger inflation.However, this may mean that "interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period," George said, which is why the Federal Reserve must maintain its independence when formulating monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, boosted by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, gold futures prices have risen. This precious metal has partially rebounded from a significant sell-off following the U.S. presidential election, increasing 3.9% from last Thursday's low.SP Angel analysts noted in a report that gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all saw gains during Monday's trading session, likely reflecting a weakening in dollar trading. Market focus is now shifting to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in December. Given that President-elect Trump's protectionist policies have raised new inflation concerns, the market expects a 35% chance that there will be no interest rate cut at this meeting. SP Angel stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is a negative factor for gold, as higher rates typically diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank Asset Management analyst Johannes Müller stated in a webinar that the decline in inflation in the Eurozone next year should enable the European Central Bank to further cut interest rates.The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Asset Management mentioned that the company expects the European Central Bank to cut rates five more times, once in December, and then four more times before the third quarter of 2025. Deutsche Bank Asset Management predicts that the inflation rate will drop to 2.0% in 2025, down from 2.3% in 2024. However, due to strong wage growth and inflation in service prices, core inflation may still remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the December policy meeting. This makes it the first global brokerage to suggest a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve after Trump's election victory. Nomura Securities now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates twice more in March and June 2025, each by 25 basis points. The brokerage maintains its forecast for the Federal Funds Rate at 4.125% until next year. Nomura Securities expects that after a possible rate cut in June next year, the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts for an extended period until March 2026.The Federal Reserve's benchmark overnight rate is currently in the range of 4.50%-4.75%, having been lowered by 75 basis points so far this year. Meanwhile, other global brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks last week hinted at a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the upcoming meeting. This news has left investors dissatisfied.However, some economists do not believe Powell's comments pose a negative impact on the market. Citigroup's Chief U.S. Economist Andrew Hollenhorst stated, "U.S. Treasury yields rose due to Powell's remarks, but we believe this is more a reflection of Powell keeping all options open rather than intentionally sending a hawkish signal."Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius still expects "the Federal Reserve to cut rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by a rate cut once each quarter in June and September, but it believes the FOMC may slow down the pace of rate cuts more quickly, possibly as early as the meetings in December or January." However, unless the employment or inflation report in November is unexpectedly strong, the likelihood of the FOMC skipping a rate cut in December is low.

ChainCatcher news, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economic and price trends align with forecasts, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise policy interest rates and adjust the level of monetary support. The timing of interest rate hikes will depend on the economic, price, and financial outlook. Vigilance must be maintained regarding various risks, including trends in overseas markets. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder stated that he still expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points in December.Rieder mentioned that the current target range for the federal funds rate of 4.5% to 4.75% is restrictive. After the rate cut in December, the Fed is expected to pause further cuts, and the FOMC will assess the frequency and pace of rate reductions. By 2025, it is anticipated that the Fed will cut rates at least twice, although Rieder did not provide specific timing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that as long as inflation continues to decline towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, interest rates will be significantly lowered in the next 12-18 months.However, Goolsbee agreed with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's view that policymakers are not in a hurry to cut rates. Goolsbee said, "As long as we continue to move towards the 2% inflation target, interest rates will be much lower than they are now in the next 12 to 18 months."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Fed's Goolsbee stated that the Fed will not change its inflation target, and interest rates may need to be lowered in the coming year. The fundamental situation of the economy remains that inflation is declining, and the labor market is gradually cooling to a full employment state. For the Fed, the inflation data in the coming months is crucial; the Fed must achieve the 2% inflation target.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, up from the previously expected 25 basis points.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that due to the strong U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will "carefully observe" to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges. Powell reiterated that the path of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates will depend on upcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He mentioned that the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has not yet reached it.The Federal Reserve will closely monitor core inflation indicators for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. "We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate in the near term, and the path to the Federal Reserve's 2% target may sometimes be bumpy." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until December is 24.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.7% (before the CPI announcement, these were 37.9% and 62.1% respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 16.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 24.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6% respectively).