ChainCatcher message, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for February is 151,000, expected to be 160,000, and the previous value has been revised from 143,000 to 125,000. Slightly below expectations.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the dollar is hovering near a four-month low as investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming key U.S. non-farm payroll report. Concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have led the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting recent pressure on the dollar. This means that the employment data will become particularly important.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated in a report that weaker-than-expected employment data could further weaken the dollar. In the worst-case scenario, if job numbers fall below expectations while wage growth exceeds expectations, it would put the Federal Reserve in a position of facing an economic slowdown, but with limited room to provide support.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the U.S. stock market ended February poorly due to weak economic data and the impact of Trump's tariffs, with the Nasdaq leading the decline by nearly 4%, marking the worst monthly performance since April last year. The S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 1.42%, and the Dow Jones by 1.58%. The seven tech giants saw a continuous decline in the first four days of last week, with stock prices plummeting collectively, only rebounding on Friday. For the week, Tesla had the largest drop of 13.27%, followed by Nvidia with a 7.07% decline, resulting in a total market value loss of $2.2 trillion for the seven giants compared to the December peak.The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, plummeting last week due to U.S. tariff policies, weak macro data, the unlocking of SOL institutions, and the largest outflow of spot ETFs for the week. Bitcoin fell to a low of around $78,000, the lowest since November 11 of last year. ETH and SOL crashed, with many altcoins dropping to all-time lows. Amid extreme market panic, Trump personally "called out" on Sunday, advocating for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA to be included in the national cryptocurrency strategic reserves. The market quickly rebounded on the news, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $95,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin rose 8.5% to $92,969, ETH increased 11% to $2,439, SOL surged 20% to $171, ADA skyrocketed 60% to $1.06, and XRP rose 24% to $2.78.In the foreign exchange and commodities sector, the dollar overall trended downward, with a cumulative decline of about 0.8% in February. International oil prices fell after two consecutive months of increase, with a cumulative drop of over 3% in February, marking the largest monthly decline since September last year. Spot gold plummeted over 2.7% this week, but still saw a cumulative increase of over 2.1% in February.Several U.S. economic data points performed poorly, raising investor concerns about the risk of stagflation. Last week, the U.S. January core PCE met expectations, somewhat alleviating inflation worries. This week, key focuses include the U.S. February non-farm payroll report, the Federal Reserve's economic conditions beige book, Powell's speech, and the White House cryptocurrency summit.

ChainCatcher news: After the U.S. inflation data met expectations on Friday, the dollar held near a two-week high, and the argument between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded their strongest start to a year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which approached 4.8% in January, now close to 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% during the day for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks nearly erased their gains for 2025 but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing the losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:Monday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI finalMonday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. January Construction Spending MoMTuesday 21:50: 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaksWednesday 3:20: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks at Bloomberg Investment ForumWednesday 21:15: U.S. February ADP Employment ChangeWednesday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Services PMI finalThursday 1:00: Federal Reserve releases Beige BookThursday 20:30: U.S. February Challenger Job CutsThursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 1Friday 21:30: U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings YoY and MoMFriday 23:45: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participate in a panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business organized U.S. Monetary Policy ForumU.S. February nonfarm payroll data will be released on Friday, which could be a key indicator affecting the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Federal Reserve officials will receive before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep rates steady in this year's second consecutive meeting.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the non-farm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in November, revised up by 49,000 from 212,000; the non-farm payroll employment in December was revised up by 51,000 from 256,000 to 307,000. After the revisions, the total increase in employment for November and December is 100,000 higher than before the revisions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the financial website Forexlive indicates that the January non-farm payrolls are likely to show better-than-expected numbers. Another factor to keep in mind is the wildfires in California in January, which may cause temporary impacts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong job market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payrolls were released, spot gold fell short-term by 13 dollars, currently reported at 2667 dollars/ounce; the dollar index DXY rose more than 50 points in the short term, currently reported at 109.72.

ChainCatcher news, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst expects that the non-farm payrolls in December will only add 120,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. This will remind the market that the labor market has not yet stabilized and continues to weaken. However, she believes that once some of the current instability factors fade, companies will continue to increase their workforce, even at a gradual pace. The overall situation will remain stable, without drastic changes. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, the rise of the "Trump trade" in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, last week all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones increased by 7.5% and the S&P rose by 5.7%, both marking the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq accumulated over 6%. Large tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, achieving its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia accumulating a 179.23% increase this year. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for U.S. stocks.The cryptocurrency market performed impressively in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's rise reached 54%. Altcoins experienced significant gains at the end of the month, with market share continuously expanding; Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a significant average increase in December during the second half of the year, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to strong bullish sentiment in the market.In the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell by 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, with a cumulative increase of 1.72% in November. The "Trump trade" boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward momentum and triggering a sell-off after the election; spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September of last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also become quite nuanced. While the market expects an increased probability of a rate cut in December, the space for cuts in 2025 is continuously decreasing. The "near increase, far decrease" phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about the resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This Thursday's speech by Powell and Friday's non-farm payroll data will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000, expected to be 113,000, and the previous value was revised from 254,000 to 223,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 74.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 23.7%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 1.8%.Before the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 10.2%.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, marking the largest increase since June of this year. The expectation was 160,000, and the previous value was revised from 114,000 to 89,000.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that the U.S. employment report for August, set to be released on Friday, will play a larger role than usual in determining the Fed's rate cut this month.At the Fed's September meeting, the debate will focus on whether to start cutting rates by 25 or 50 basis points to prevent undesirable weakness in the labor market. The August hiring and employment report will be key to this decision. A decent employment report could prompt officials to begin a possible series of rate cuts with a 25 basis point reduction. If hiring is weak or the unemployment rate rises, as it did in July, a larger rate cut will be imminent. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Walter Bloomberg, Citigroup analysts stated in a report to clients on Tuesday that they expect the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 125,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.Citigroup stated, "The shift from inflation to employment has been completed," indicating that the focus of Federal Reserve policy will shift from inflation indicators to employment data. Citigroup's forecast suggests that an increase of 125,000 jobs, combined with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, would be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.The report noted that if the unemployment rate slightly decreases to 4.2%, the Federal Reserve may choose to cut rates by 25 basis points, although this would not change Citigroup's expectations of continued slack in the labor market and an economic slowdown. The volatility in the labor market has become as pronounced as inflation data in recent years.