ChainCatcher news, after Powell stated that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust interest rates, U.S. short-term interest rate futures continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June and expect a total of 3 rate cuts by 2025. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the non-farm payroll report, U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell. U.S. interest rate futures traders are no longer betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May. Currently, they are betting on the Fed to resume rate cuts in June, still expecting the Fed to cut rates by about 75 basis points this year.

ChainCatcher news, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the impact of President Trump's policies and other factors on the economy may take several months to become clear, indicating that officials may keep interest rates stable at least until late spring.Bostic reiterated that changes in Trump's policies could affect the economy in different ways, increasing economic uncertainty. He mentioned that the new policies of the Trump administration are placing the U.S. economy in "incredible volatility," and he believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to have enough clarity to determine the direction of interest rates before late spring or summer.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that not all tariffs will be passed on to consumers; the current policy of the Federal Reserve remains restrictive, and the Fed can lower interest rates for both positive and negative reasons, still believing that a good outlook for rate cuts exists.Waller stated that he does not see the need for a rate cut in March, and the Federal Reserve may lower rates after March; the median expectation for two rate cuts in 2025 remains reasonable.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank has lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with market expectations, marking the fifth consecutive meeting of rate cuts.The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been reduced from 2.90% and 3.15% to 2.65% and 2.9%, respectively.

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten stated that against the backdrop of increased volatility in the bond market, the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates from 4.5% to 2.65% on Thursday, continuing its easing policy. As the anticipated easing policy approaches, the market is re-pricing the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least three times in 2025.The upcoming easing policy from the European Central Bank will only intensify the trend of global liquidity easing, providing a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.Previous news, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, with two more cuts anticipated within the year.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Securities Times, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated at the economic theme press conference of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress that since last year, the effects of counter-cyclical adjustments in monetary policy have been quite evident. The orientation of monetary policy is a description of the current state. This year, adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates will be made at an opportune time based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions, as well as the situation in the financial markets. Currently, there is still room for a decrease in the reserve requirement ratio.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs stated that it expects the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate to reach 2% by June. It is anticipated that the central bank will not cut interest rates in July, whereas the previous forecast was a 25 basis point cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo stated that if the United States achieves a balanced budget, interest rates will be significantly reduced.

ChainCatcher news, Boston College economics professor Brian Bethune stated that Trump's tariff policy is the biggest shock to the U.S. economy since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Economists generally believe that the act exacerbated the Great Depression by encouraging countries to build trade barriers, leading to a sharp decline in global economic activity. In response to the Trump administration's actions, Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico has stated it will announce countermeasures on Sunday. Bethune warned that the new tariffs will disrupt supply chains, putting U.S. manufacturers operating internationally in a difficult position.The direct impact of the new tariffs will be to suppress growth and raise inflation, creating a "stagflation effect." The U.S. experienced stagflation in the 1970s and 1980s, when economic stagnation coexisted with high inflation. Bethune suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates to address the current situation.

ChainCatcher News, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida hinted in a speech that the benchmark interest rate will continue to be gradually raised, which may quell speculation about an early rate hike. Uchida stated during a speech to business leaders on Wednesday: "If the economic outlook is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise the policy interest rate accordingly and adjust the degree of monetary easing. In this regard, the key point of the outlook is that the central bank expects to achieve the 2% price stability target."Uchida noted that officials will have to monitor the economy's response to each rate hike, as the central bank has raised rates three times in the past 12 months, making it difficult to accurately determine where the neutral rate lies, which is neither restrictive nor stimulative. This comment suggests that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates at two consecutive meetings, including a hike in January followed by another in March. He hinted that, based on a range of estimates, the benchmark interest rate could rise to at least 1% by the end of fiscal year 2026.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, U.S. President Trump has initiated actions to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes that the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation.Recent data reflects that U.S. consumers and businesses are already worried about the economic outlook and are reducing spending. This effect will lead to a significant slowdown in the economy, while the impact of tariffs will cause high inflation, thus the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation. If true, this would be the first time the U.S. has experienced stagflation in 50 years.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows that the U.S. economy may contract by 2.8% in the first quarter. If true, this would be the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. In the face of stagflation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, similar to former Fed Chairman Volcker's aggressive rate hikes in the early 1980s, sacrificing the economy to curb inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, Deutsche Bank's economic team holds the most hawkish view on the Federal Reserve's policy for 2025 on Wall Street, predicting that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year. While this remains the team's official stance, Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of Trump's new tariffs could jeopardize this forecast."You have certainly started to see some negative effects of trade uncertainty in the economic data," Luzzetti said, "If this impact broadens and is reflected in weak labor market data, the Fed may cut rates this year." However, Luzzetti stated that Deutsche Bank wants to see how long the tariffs will last before changing its forecast for the Fed.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analyst Adam Button stated that the current trade environment is tough, and formulating interest rate policies is equally challenging. So far, there have not been many signs of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, but St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized some downside risks facing the economy yesterday, opening the door for the Fed.In addition, every Fed official has made similar "wait-and-see" statements, emphasizing the desire to see a 2% inflation rate before cutting rates. The market did not wait for stronger signals, as it raised the expected easing from the Fed this year from 40 basis points a few weeks ago to 80 basis points. The upcoming March meeting still shows a very low probability of rate cuts, but the probability of a cut in the May meeting has now exceeded 50%. At the longer end of the curve, the terminal rate has decreased by about 50 basis points.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that we are determined to lower interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, State Street Global Advisors analyst Konrad Kleinfeld stated that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, with two more cuts anticipated this year.Data from LSEG shows that the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming European Central Bank decision. Following a 25 basis point cut in January this year, the remaining three cuts will bring the total monetary easing this year to 100 basis points.Kleinfeld stated, "Despite recent developments and Europe's urgent need to increase defense and fiscal spending, we still believe that the European Central Bank will cautiously adjust its interest rate policy in this environment." The current main deposit rate of the European Central Bank is 2.75%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Nir Kaissar, head of asset management company Unison Advisors, believes that President Trump may ultimately find a way to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates: fiscal tightening.Nir Kaissar stated that in recent years, the influence of fiscal policy has been at least comparable to the historic measures taken by the Federal Reserve. Now, fiscal policy and monetary policy may be about to swap roles. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the government aims to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP. This will require Trump's Department of Efficiency (DOGE) to cut spending by $1 trillion. It is still unclear to what extent this goal can be achieved, but the mere threat of spending cuts may already be suppressing market sentiment and hindering economic growth.By cutting spending, Trump may force monetary policy to ease in support of fiscal tightening. Whether Trump's spending cuts lead to an economic slowdown is almost irrelevant. As long as these cuts (or threats of cuts) occur simultaneously with an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve may take action.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Hamak stated that interest rate hikes are not considered in the current outlook. Inflation expectations remain stable.

ChainCatcher news, the Trump administration has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2.ANZ's G3 economist Brian Martin stated that if the impact of the tariffs remains unchanged for the rest of this calendar year, it could keep the U.S. core PCE inflation rate around 2.6%-2.9%, compared to a pre-tariff estimate of 2.4%.He added that these estimates do not account for potential second-round effects or offsets to weak demand. Nevertheless, Martin indicated that the Federal Reserve may remain patient and pay attention to one-time price increases. ANZ maintains that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 75 basis points during this cycle and resume rate cuts in the second half of 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased more than expected last week. The Labor Department stated on Thursday that for the week ending February 22, initial claims rose by 22,000, seasonally adjusted to 242,000, higher than the market expectation of 221,000.A separate federal employee unemployment compensation (UCFE) program shows that the large-scale layoffs of federal government probationary employees have not yet had any impact, most of whom were dismissed by Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) around February 14.As policymakers closely monitor the impact of Trump's fiscal, trade, and immigration policies on the economy, historically low layoffs are maintaining the momentum of economic expansion, providing the Federal Reserve with room to keep interest rates unchanged. Economists believe that the Trump administration's policies will lead to inflation.