HashWhale BTC Mining Weekly | Bitcoin Market Volatility Under Macroeconomic Impact, Mining Difficulty Hits All-Time High (4.05-4.11)
This week, driven by macro factors, the Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with overall sentiment strongly influenced by external variables. In terms of mining, current mining revenues are generally below the breakeven point, and most miners are facing profit compression or even losses. Bitcoin completed a new round of difficulty adjustment at block height 891,072, with the difficulty increased by 6.81% to 121.51 T, setting a new historical high and further intensifying the operational pressure on miners.Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey
1. Bitcoin Market
From April 5 to April 11, 2025, the specific trends of Bitcoin are as follows:
April 5: The price of Bitcoin slightly rose from $82,839 to $84,508 in the early morning, then consolidated for a while, fluctuating around $84,000, before gradually declining to around $83,570 and then slightly dropping to $82,642.
April 6: Bitcoin maintained a sideways trend, first crawling up to $83,593, then dropping to $82,252, followed by a sharp plunge to $78,898. This was triggered by the escalation of global trade tensions due to U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, leading to a market chain reaction that caused a collapse in the Bitcoin market by the end of the day.
April 7: After a brief period of sideways movement, the downtrend continued, oscillating down to $77,206, then slightly recovering to $79,115 but failing to stabilize, breaking below the $77,500 support level and dropping to $74,727. Subsequently, it oscillated upward to around $77,500 before surging to $79,454.
April 8: A trend of oscillating upward was observed, starting from $77,776, climbing to $79,022, $79,870, and $80,718. After a short-term pullback, it maintained around $79,800, then quickly dropped to $76,529.
April 9: Continuing the downward trend from the previous day, it oscillated down to $75,005 before starting a recovery trend, slightly oscillating upward to $77,741, then oscillating down to $75,858, and finally recovering to around $77,525.
April 10: Stimulated by news that "Trump may consider canceling some tariffs," market risk appetite temporarily rebounded, driving Bitcoin prices to rise rapidly. During the day, Bitcoin broke through multiple resistance levels from $77,131, strongly rising to $82,555, followed by a slight technical pullback under profit-taking pressure, but bullish momentum continued, and the price surged again to the day's high of $83,428. In the evening, market sentiment weakened, selling pressure increased, and the price quickly fell back to around $78,707 before temporarily stopping the decline, forming an overall "good news-driven surge and pullback" trend.
April 11: After stopping the decline at the end of the previous trading day, Bitcoin's overall trend on April 11 became stable, with market sentiment turning cautious and volatility significantly narrowing. During the day, the price oscillated upward to $79,959, briefly retraced to $78,969, and then regained upward momentum, reaching a high of $80,356. After that, the market continued a narrow range oscillation upward, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin was temporarily reported at $80,751.97, with overall daily fluctuations under control, and the market entering a short-term wait-and-see state.
Summary
This week, the Bitcoin market exhibited high volatility and a wide range downward trend driven by macro news. Affected by negative news, it repeatedly broke through key technical support levels, with multiple instances of "rapid sell-off - weak rebound" trading occurring, leading to an overall bearish market. On April 10, stimulated by news of "Trump possibly canceling some tariffs," market risk aversion temporarily eased, resulting in a significant short-term rebound in Bitcoin, which briefly surged to $83,428. However, due to a lack of sustained buying support, the rebound could not hold and subsequently fell back. Overall, Bitcoin is still in an adjustment cycle dominated by macro uncertainty, with insufficient risk appetite and weak technicals, leading to cautious market sentiment and the possibility of further downward oscillation in the short term.
Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/04/05-2025/04/11)
2. Market Dynamics and Macro Background
Capital Flow
- Exchange Capital Flow Performance:
According to on-chain data statistics from CryptoQuant and Glassnode, the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges significantly shrank this week, dropping from an average daily net outflow of 9,500 coins last month to a low of 2,800 coins this week. Among them:
During the sharp decline from April 6 to 7, some medium- and short-term holders panic-sold, pushing the short-term net inflow to exchanges positive, with on-chain data showing that the average daily net inflow of Bitcoin exceeded 4,200 coins over these two days, reflecting concentrated market panic selling pressure.
At the same time, a large number of high-leverage long positions were liquidated during the decline, further intensifying liquidity pressure, with some funds choosing to flow back into stablecoins for safety.
During the rebound on April 10, although Bitcoin prices rose rapidly, on-chain data indicated that funds did not flow back into exchanges on a large scale, suggesting that the rebound was mainly driven by short-term short covering rather than new capital entering the market.
- On-chain Activity and Whale Behavior:
Whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) remained relatively silent during this week's decline, showing no significant buying or bottom-fishing signs, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among large holders.
Medium-sized holding addresses (10-100 BTC) made some small accumulation moves at low levels, but the scale was too small to reverse the market trend.
The number of active addresses on-chain decreased by over 13% during the week, indicating a significant weakening of user participation, further corroborating that the current market is characterized by a technical rebound under low trading volume.
- Stablecoin Capital Dynamics:
The on-chain activity of USDT and USDC slightly increased this week, indicating that some funds temporarily flowed out of the crypto market and remained in stablecoin status, entering a "wait-and-see accumulation" phase;
However, there was no significant rapid inflow of large amounts of stablecoins back to exchanges for opening positions, indicating that overall funds are still primarily adopting defensive strategies.
Technical Indicator Analysis
1. RSI (14-day)
This week, the RSI indicator briefly fell below 30, entering a severely oversold area; it rebounded to around 45 during the April 10 rebound but did not break through the 50 neutral line, indicating that the market is in a weak recovery phase despite a short-term rebound; the RSI structure shows an initial "bottom divergence" pattern, which may serve as a signal to confirm a phase stop if the market volume increases in the future.
- MACD
The MACD formed a death cross on April 6, with the fast line crossing below the slow line and expanding downward, significantly amplifying the bearish momentum bars; although there was a slight convergence on April 10, no golden cross signal was formed yet; this indicates that the market has not yet seen a trend reversal, and the rebound is of a technical repair nature, with the bearish trend still continuing.
Market Sentiment Analysis
1. Fear & Greed Index
At the beginning of the week, it was in the "neutral" zone (around 27), but rapidly dropped from April 6, hitting a low of "extreme fear" at 17; on April 10, due to news stimulation, it briefly rebounded to "greed" at 60 but could not hold, falling back to the lower end of "neutral" on April 11; overall, this reflects that investor confidence is extremely fragile and highly sensitive to news.
2. Derivatives Market Sentiment
BTC perpetual contract funding rates turned negative multiple times (April 6-8): indicating a dominance of shorts and strong short-selling sentiment;
Options IV (implied volatility) surged: indicating an increase in market expectations for future uncertainty, reflecting heightened demand for hedging;
The long-short position ratio became imbalanced in the short term: longs rapidly deleveraged, and speculative funds significantly flowed out of the market.
This week, Bitcoin market sentiment was strongly influenced by external macro variables, presenting a "fear-driven emotional trading structure." Although there was a short-term warming due to positive news, the overall sentiment remained bearish, and confidence still needs to be repaired. Investors' short-term behavior has become more conservative, mainly focusing on hedging, waiting, or speculating on rebounds, with true emotional repair relying on the resonance of news landing and technical repairs.
Macro Economic Background
U.S. Tariff Policy and Global Trade Tensions
On April 6, Trump announced the possibility of canceling some tariff policies, which briefly boosted the market. However, due to the increasing uncertainty in global trade, risk aversion still dominated the market, leading to significant selling pressure on Bitcoin. The adjustment of Trump's tariff policies did not effectively alleviate market concerns about economic slowdown.
Monetary Policy and Risk Appetite
Expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing policy have strengthened the market's demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, but global economic slowdown and stock market volatility have reduced market risk appetite, leading to a flow of safe-haven funds out of traditional markets, putting pressure on Bitcoin. The strengthening of the dollar further suppressed Bitcoin's upward potential.
Global Financial Market Linkage
Fluctuations in global stock markets have affected the Bitcoin market, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold, causing short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin. Although the tariff news on April 10 prompted a rebound in Bitcoin, overall market sentiment remains cautious, awaiting effective recovery.
3. Hash Rate Changes
From April 5 to April 11, 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate exhibited fluctuations, with the specific situation as follows:
On April 5, the hash rate quickly fell from 1018.82 EH/s to 925.26 EH/s, then rebounded to 1035.81 EH/s but failed to maintain a high level, dropping again to around 950 EH/s during the day, indicating some pressure in the market at high hash rate levels. On April 6, volatility intensified, with the hash rate first sharply declining to 853.38 EH/s, briefly recovering before dropping again to the lowest point of this period at 753.01 EH/s, indicating that some miners might adjust their hash rate input in the short term, followed by a rapid rebound to 907.71 EH/s, reflecting strong hash rate replenishment momentum at low levels.
Entering April 7, the network hash rate briefly stabilized around 930 EH/s but then fell again, touching 825.98 EH/s, indicating that the market had not yet escaped the influence of the volatility range, with a late-day rebound to 911.22 EH/s, showing a certain recovery trend. On April 8, the hash rate's fluctuation range significantly expanded, oscillating rapidly between 958.68 EH/s and 864.75 EH/s throughout the day, peaking at 1019.86 EH/s, and finally closing at 976 EH/s, with the fluctuation range clearly widening, reflecting that miners' hash rate resources were in a state of high-frequency switching.
On April 9, the fluctuation range narrowed significantly, with the hash rate operating overall between 800 EH/s and 900 EH/s, presenting a weak oscillation pattern, first dropping to 814.50 EH/s, then slightly recovering to 874.33 EH/s, and finally falling back to 794.16 EH/s at the end of the day, indicating a cautious market performance. On April 10, the hash rate operation became stable, peaking at 883.89 EH/s, maintaining fluctuations within the narrow range of 800-900 EH/s throughout the day, reflecting that the market's hash rate distribution entered a wait-and-see period in the short term. On April 11, the fluctuation range of the hash rate further converged, overall maintaining around 850 EH/s, marking the end of the previous phase of intense volatility, with miners' hash rate strategies tending toward stable operation.
In summary, this week's Bitcoin network hash rate was influenced by multiple factors, including miners' hash rate adjustments, changes in block reward expectations, and uncertainties in the market environment. Continuous attention is needed on the subsequent price fluctuations' impact on small and medium miners, as well as the upcoming difficulty adjustment rhythm's effect on hash rate stability.
Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data
4. Mining Revenue
According to the latest model estimates from MacroMicro, as of April 9, 2025, the unit production cost of Bitcoin is approximately $89,076.32, while the spot price on that day is about $82,573.95, resulting in a Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio of 1.08. This ratio is significantly above 1, indicating that the current market price is below the average mining cost across the network, with the overall network operating below the breakeven point, and most miners are in a state of profit compression or loss.
This phenomenon reflects that in the current market environment, miners' profit margins are significantly squeezed, especially those with high electricity costs or using low-efficiency equipment, particularly small and medium-sized mining farms relying on the previous generation of ASIC miners, which may have already entered a marginal loss or even a complete loss range. Historical data shows that when the cost-to-price ratio remains above 1, it usually leads to some inefficient hash rates exiting the market, pushing the overall network hash rate down and triggering a downward adjustment in mining difficulty (Difficulty Adjustment Down) to rebalance network operating costs and entry thresholds.
In early April 2025, Bitcoin miners face multiple challenges: market prices below mining costs, compressed profit margins; high mining difficulty and hash rate, intense competition; continued low income per unit hash rate, declining profitability; rising costs of mining machines and policy changes increasing operational uncertainty. Against this backdrop, miners need to closely monitor market dynamics and optimize operational strategies, such as adopting high-efficiency mining machines and choosing low electricity cost areas for hash rate deployment to cope with revenue fluctuations and cost pressures.
Bitcoin Mining Cost Data
5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency
According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin completed its latest difficulty adjustment at block height 891,072 (Beijing time April 5, 21:50:26), with the difficulty increased by 6.81% to 121.51 T, setting a new historical high. As of the time of writing, the total network hash rate is approximately 899.33 EH/s, and the current mining difficulty has risen to 121.63 T. Based on the current block interval, the next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur in about 8 days, with an estimated increase of +0.10%. As the network difficulty continues to rise, miners' requirements for equipment performance and energy efficiency are also increasing, leading mining operations to gradually adjust towards higher efficiency and energy efficiency, thereby affecting the overall energy consumption structure.
It is worth mentioning that on April 7, multiple on-chain data platforms simultaneously monitored that Bitcoin's hash rate broke through 1 Zetahash per second (i.e., 1,000 EH/s) for the first time in its 16-year development history, marking the network's entry into the "Z era" of hash rate, further highlighting the unprecedented intensity of hash rate and energy input required for current mining.
Meanwhile, from on-chain indicators, the market's short-term sentiment still appears under pressure. According to data released by CryptoQuant on April 8, approximately 25.8% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin (i.e., 5,124,348 BTC) is in a state of unrealized losses, indicating that many investors and some miners are facing potential cost pressures in the current high difficulty and high energy consumption context, especially those operating in regions with high energy costs, whose profit margins are being squeezed.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
6. Policy and Regulatory News
Nigeria Recognizes Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies as Securities
On April 8, news broke that Nigeria recognizes Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as securities.
New Hampshire Passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill, Becoming the Fourth State to Advance Related Legislation
According to Cointelegraph, on April 10, the New Hampshire House of Representatives passed the Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB302 with a vote of 192 to 179, marking the state as the fourth to pass Bitcoin reserve-related legislation after Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma. The bill will allow the state government to explore the possibility of establishing a Bitcoin reserve, which will next be submitted to the Senate for review.
Florida's Bitcoin Reserve Bill Receives Initial Advancement, Taking the First Step in the Legislative Process
Cointelegraph reported that on April 10, the Florida House Insurance and Banking Committee unanimously passed the state's Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB487. The bill aims to promote the state government holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset but still needs to pass through three committee reviews in the House before entering a broader legislative process. This move shows an increasing interest among U.S. states in promoting digital asset reserves.
Related Images
7. Mining News
Opinion: Trump's Tariffs May Lower Bitcoin Mining Machine Prices Outside the U.S.
On April 9, news emerged that the broad tariffs implemented by the Trump administration could lead to a collapse in U.S. demand for Bitcoin mining machines, benefiting mining operations outside the U.S. as manufacturers seek to sell their excess inventory at cheaper prices in markets outside the U.S., according to Hashlabs Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud.
"As prices for machines in the U.S. rise, their prices may paradoxically fall in other parts of the world," Mellerud said in a report on April 8. "The demand for shipping machines to the U.S. is expected to plummet, possibly approaching zero."
"Manufacturers will be left with excess inventory originally intended for the U.S. market. To deal with this surplus, they may need to lower prices to attract buyers from other regions," Mellerud stated, adding that the decline in mining machine prices could allow mining operations outside the U.S. to scale up and capture a larger share of Bitcoin's total hash rate.
Major Listed Mining Companies Mined 3,648 Bitcoins in March
On April 9, news from Farside Investors revealed that all major listed Bitcoin mining companies had announced their production data for March 2025. The data showed that these mining companies mined a total of 3,648 Bitcoins in March, setting a new high since the block halving.
Pakistan Plans to Use Some Surplus Electricity for Bitcoin Mining
On April 10, news emerged that Bilal Bin Saqib, CEO of Pakistan's Cryptocurrency Committee, stated that Pakistan plans to allocate some surplus electricity to Bitcoin mining and AI data centers, adding that discussions have been held with several Bitcoin mining companies, and the specific locations for mining will be determined based on the surplus electricity supply in specific regions.
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8. Bitcoin News
Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week's Statistics)
El Salvador: Increased Bitcoin holdings twice this week, each by 1 coin. Current total holdings reach 6,143.18 BTC, with a total market value of approximately $488 million.
Australia Monochrome: Its spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holdings have risen to 321 BTC, with a market value of approximately $40.14 million.
Canada Neptune Digital Assets: Announced this week an increase in Bitcoin holdings to 401 BTC, with an average purchase price of $31,564 per coin.
Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": The Current Market Crash Has Arrived, Advises Investing in Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver
On April 5, Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," stated on social media that the largest stock market crash he warned about in his book "Rich Dad's Prophecy" has arrived, and the current economy has entered a recession and may fall into depression. He advises investors to focus on non-Wall Street assets, particularly physical gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Kiyosaki pointed out that after the crash of paper asset markets, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may go into overdrive printing money, at which point the value of gold, silver, and Bitcoin will rise. He emphasized that the price increases of these assets actually reflect the decline in the value of the dollar, leading to rising prices of necessities such as food, housing, and energy, i.e., inflation.
U.S. Treasury Secretary: Bitcoin is Becoming a Store of Value Tool
On April 5, news from Coingape reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Tucker Carlson that Bitcoin is becoming an "emerging store of value tool." He compared Bitcoin to gold, emphasizing that both have value storage properties.
Analysts: Bitcoin's Current Decline is More Resilient than During Previous Crises
On April 8, Bernstein analysts noted that Bitcoin's current decline is more resilient than during previous crises. Analysts cited historical data indicating that during past crises (such as the market panic triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rate shocks, etc.), Bitcoin experienced declines of 50% to 70%. "The current price trend (down 26%) indicates that Bitcoin demand is coming from more resilient capital."
Analysts believe that Bitcoin's price, as a leading indicator of risk appetite, will not undermine its long-term excellent performance as a means of value storage in the digital realm. From a time scale perspective, Bitcoin is probabilistically "gold," with its trading nature being more volatile and liquid than gold.
Opinion: The Global Banking Industry is Actively Promoting Bitcoin as Regulatory Bodies Accept Cryptocurrencies
On April 9, Eric Turner, CEO of Messari, and Thomas Eichenberger, co-founder of Sygnum Bank, stated during a panel discussion at Paris Blockchain Week that they expect significant changes in the banking industry's participation in cryptocurrencies in the second half of this year.
According to the executives, the global banking industry is actively promoting Bitcoin as regulatory bodies accept cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins and banks' crypto services, with significant potential for crypto services in the second half of 2025.
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Cardano Founder: Bitcoin May Rise to $250,000 by the End of This Year
On April 10, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson stated in an interview with CNBC that as tech giants like Microsoft and Apple enter the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin could reach $250,000 as early as this year.
Charles Hoskinson stated, "The tariffs may ultimately be more noise than substance, and people will realize that most countries in the world are willing to negotiate. The market will stabilize slightly and gradually adapt to the new normal, and then the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, at which point a large amount of capital will flow in, and this capital will ultimately flood into the crypto market. I believe Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of this year or next year."
Grayscale: Tariffs and Trade Tensions May Have a Positive Impact on Bitcoin's Mid-term Adoption
On April 10, asset management company Grayscale released a research report stating that in the medium term, tariffs and trade tensions may ultimately have a positive impact on the adoption of Bitcoin (BTC). The report pointed out that tariffs lead to stagflation, where economic growth stagnates alongside inflation, which is unfavorable for traditional assets but beneficial for scarce commodities like gold; trade tensions may put pressure on the demand for dollar reserves, leaving room for competitive assets including other fiat currencies, gold, and Bitcoin; historical precedents suggest that a weak dollar and above-average inflation may persist, and Bitcoin may benefit from such macro backgrounds; "With the support of changes in U.S. government policies, the market structure is rapidly improving," which may help expand Bitcoin's investor base.
Adam Back: Bitcoin Will Welcome Larger Institutional Allocations
On April 11, Adam Back, an early Bitcoin developer and CEO of Blockstream, stated that recent regulatory progress in the U.S. (such as the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs) has provided a clear compliance investment path for large institutional investors globally. He noted that the current entry of institutional funds is "just the beginning," and as traditional financial infrastructure (such as custody and derivatives) improves, Bitcoin will welcome larger institutional allocations.
