Chapter 1: The Global Crypto Market Landscape in the Post-Bull Market Era

Since the first half of 2025, the crypto market has entered the "post-bull market" phase, exhibiting characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin successfully reached new highs driven by the halving cycle, it soon entered a correction phase. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy not turning to easing as expected and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the crypto market is once again shrouded in the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainty.

The market during this period is not a traditional bear market, nor does it continue the large-scale rise seen in the bull market; rather, it is in a transitional zone after the cycle's peak. Risk appetite has decreased, and capital activity has weakened, but there has not been a systemic liquidity crisis similar to that of 2022. Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum still see institutional demand for increased allocation. On-chain activity has slightly declined but has not significantly worsened. Meanwhile, some new narrative sectors such as AI chains, Restaking, and meme coin ecosystems continue to attract speculative capital, presenting a "strong themes in a weak market" scenario.

From a macro perspective, in the first half of 2025, the global economy is in a complex state of "de-inflation instability and growth pressure." The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance in a high-interest-rate environment, with mixed opinions on whether it will initiate interest rate cuts within the year. The uncertainty of the interest rate path continues to suppress the upward space for risk assets. A new round of trade friction between the U.S. and China over new energy, AI chips, critical rare earths, and digital technology export controls has become a new variable. Although crypto assets are not directly involved, geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and posed additional disturbances to investor sentiment.

However, it is worth noting that the globalization and resilience of the crypto industry have significantly improved compared to the past. Multiple jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE, have successively released supportive policies in 2024, promoting the launch of crypto ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin regulations, and the accelerated operation of Web3 sandboxes, providing clearer compliance pathways for traditional capital. This international support partially offsets the negative impacts brought by tightening U.S. regulations and has led to an overall market ecology characterized by "local stagnation and global balance."

Overall, the "post-bull market" does not signify the end of the bull market but rather a transition into a new phase—where the market places greater emphasis on value judgment, users prioritize practical scenarios, and capital trends towards long-termism. In the short term, macro variables will continue to dominate market expectation fluctuations, but in the medium to long term, the market is in a critical period of transitioning to the next cycle of technology-application resonance. Only by identifying sectors and targets with certain growth within the diverse evolution of the global landscape can one grasp the core logic of the "post-bull market era."

Chapter 2: The Gradual Waning of Trade War Shadows and Macroeconomic Impact

In the first half of 2025, the renewed trade friction between the U.S. and China became a significant disturbance factor in the global market, especially in the context of the approaching U.S. elections and intensified policy games, involving multiple sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, critical rare earths, and digital technology export controls. However, compared to the peak of the trade war from 2018 to 2020, this round of trade disputes is more "symbolic," with relatively mild actual economic impacts and long-term structural effects, showing characteristics of gradual "waning."

On one hand, the intensity of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. is clearly constrained by domestic inflation pressures and voter interests. In a high-interest, high-price environment, significantly raising tariffs on Chinese goods would further increase import prices, weakening the momentum of consumption recovery. Therefore, the Biden administration's use of tariffs in an election year leans more towards tactical "symbolic" operations rather than a comprehensive strategic upgrade. On the Chinese side, a rational and restrained attitude has been maintained, focusing on stabilizing exports and attracting foreign investment, without implementing large-scale reciprocal measures, keeping the overall trade friction in a state of "limited confrontation."

From the perspective of macro data, although the disturbances from U.S.-China trade friction have triggered a temporary rise in risk aversion, they have not led to a systemic risk reassessment in the global financial market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices quickly stabilized after the shock, while the dollar index and gold maintained strong fluctuations, indicating that market participants' broad expectations regarding this round of trade disputes have already been reflected in prices. The crypto market also quickly recovered after a brief decline, showing significantly enhanced resilience compared to the past.

For the crypto market, the indirect impacts of the trade war mainly manifest in three areas:

1. Short-term contraction of risk appetite. Trade tensions can temporarily undermine market confidence, triggering a rise in safe-haven assets (such as gold and U.S. Treasuries), while high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies are more likely to be sold off as a "liquidity reservoir."
2. Transformation of cross-border capital flows. Trade and technology sanctions are often accompanied by increased financial scrutiny and cross-border payment regulations, prompting some funds to begin on-chain transfers via stablecoins and BTC, stimulating an increase in on-chain trading volume and boosting interest in crypto assets in some Asian markets.
3. Strengthening of the medium- to long-term de-dollarization trend. Trade friction has intensified emerging market countries' doubts about the stability of the dollar system, leading more countries to explore cross-border settlement paths for digital currencies and tokenized assets, which indirectly enhances the strategic position of public chains like Ethereum in global financial infrastructure.

It is noteworthy that since Q2 2025, as global inflation gradually recedes and central banks in many Eurasian countries begin to contemplate interest rate cuts, expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance have gradually increased. Coupled with a return to rationality in trade negotiations, the crypto market's sensitivity to geopolitical friction is decreasing. The net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has stabilized, indicating that institutional investors have gradually viewed trade risks as "background fluctuations" rather than decisive variables.

Overall, while this round of trade war has caused temporary disturbances in sentiment, its actual impact on the crypto market has significantly weakened. The global macro environment is transitioning from the "tail end of tightening" to "moderate recovery," and the risk pricing logic of the crypto market is also shifting from "geopolitical tension" to "interest rate inflection point." During this phase, the importance of macro influences cannot be ignored, but the true driving force of the market may quietly return to the internal cycles of technological innovation and on-chain ecological evolution.

Chapter 3: Potential Driving Factors for Market Rebound in the Second Half of the Year

After experiencing suppression in the first half of 2025 due to global macro conditions, trade friction, and crypto regulatory policies, the crypto market is showing a series of rebound signals. The potential for market rebound in the second half of the year mainly stems from several key driving factors, which together create the possibility of recovery for the crypto market.

3.1. Changes in the Interest Rate Cycle and Recovery of Risk Appetite

In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually emerged from the high inflation situation following the pandemic, with major central banks gradually adjusting their monetary policies, particularly the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes. The market generally expects that the interest rate cut cycle may begin in the second half of the year. This trend has particularly profound implications for the crypto market. First, a low-interest-rate environment typically reduces the returns on traditional financial assets, further driving capital towards high-risk, high-return asset classes. Second, interest rate cuts may lead institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to seek higher returns, potentially increasing their allocation to crypto assets, thereby driving up the prices of major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Additionally, as the U.S. government and other global economies strive to stimulate economic vitality through monetary easing policies, the crypto market, as an "alternative investment asset," may become part of the capital market, attracting more institutional funds and retail investors to participate.

3.2. Continuous Innovation and Expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Decentralized finance (DeFi) has undergone a complex market adjustment over the past two years, but with continuous technological maturation and the expansion of application scenarios, the DeFi ecosystem is expected to experience a new breakout point in the second half of 2025. With advancements in Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability, and privacy protection technologies, DeFi has achieved significant improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security, attracting more institutional participants.

Particularly in the fields of decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, the DeFi market is gradually penetrating the "gray areas" of traditional financial markets. For example, through innovations in DeFi protocols, institutional funds can hedge through on-chain derivatives, and investors can participate in the market in a more flexible and cost-effective manner. This development potential will help drive a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.

3.3. Continued Entry of Institutional Investors

The entry of institutional investors is undoubtedly one of the most critical factors in the maturation of the crypto market. From Bitcoin ETFs to ETH futures, and the gradual increase in crypto asset holdings by more institutional funds, the inflow of institutions has brought more capital and robust risk management mechanisms to the market. As the regulatory framework becomes clearer and the capital market gradually opens up, more traditional financial institutions will participate in the investment and custody of crypto assets.

Moreover, some large enterprises (such as payment giants, internet platforms, and investment banks) are gradually recognizing the strategic significance of crypto assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only indicates that the capital pool in the crypto market is continuously expanding but also suggests that the crypto market is gradually moving towards mainstream acceptance in traditional financial markets. In the second half of the year, as more institutions recognize and invest in crypto assets, the momentum for market rebound will be further strengthened.

3.4. Breakthroughs and Maturity in Blockchain Technology Applications

The long-term development of the crypto market relies not only on price fluctuations but also on the practical applications of blockchain technology. In 2025, significant progress has been made in the application of blockchain across various fields such as finance, supply chain, healthcare, and copyright management. Particularly in cross-border payments, smart contracts, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain technology is continuously breaking down barriers in traditional industries, promoting the scaling and maturation of the crypto asset market.

The success of these technological applications, especially in the fintech and commercial sectors, will further stimulate market demand for crypto assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology continues to achieve breakthroughs, its role in the real economy will become more prominent, aiding the recovery and rebound of the crypto market.

Through the combination of the above factors, the crypto market in the second half of 2025 possesses strong rebound potential driven by multiple favorable factors. The market's recovery may become more pronounced, especially with the support of institutional investors, technological advancements, and the global economy shifting towards monetary easing, the crypto market is expected to welcome broader development space.

Chapter 4: Divergence Trends Among Major Chains and Assets

4.1. Redefining the "Safe-Haven Attributes" of Bitcoin and Ethereum

In this round of macro turmoil, Bitcoin has once again been defined by the market as "digital gold" and an anti-inflation asset. Especially against the backdrop of expanding divergences in global central bank monetary policies and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has demonstrated relative resilience against declines.

Ethereum, on the other hand, is gradually becoming synonymous with "digital financial platforms." With the enhancement of L2 scalability, the maturation of Restaking mechanisms, and the explosion of the DA (data availability) layer, its value logic has shifted from "Gas fee income" to "on-chain economic operation infrastructure." In the future, Bitcoin will possess more attributes of a global reserve asset, while Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovations.

4.2. Solana and the Meme Experiment of "High-Performance Chains"

The Solana chain experienced a boom in meme trends and on-chain innovations from late 2023 to early 2024. High TPS, high user participation, and low Gas fees made it a popular public chain for meme speculation and emerging DApp deployment. However, as the market adjusts, on-chain funds and projects are gradually differentiating, with "substantive ecosystems" like Solana's projects (e.g., Jupiter, Tensor) beginning to distance themselves from purely meme coins, marking Solana's entry into a new phase of ecological depth construction. Similar situations are seen with other public chains like Base, Sui, and Aptos, all facing the ecological sedimentation test after the "peak of speculation."

4.3. Layer 2 and Cross-Chain Technology: Multi-Chain Collaboration Becomes a Trend

Ethereum Layer 2 solutions represented by Arbitrum and Optimism have significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, bringing the on-chain interaction experience close to that of "centralized apps." As ZK Rollup technology matures further (e.g., zkSync, Starknet), the synergistic effects of multi-chain coexistence and cross-chain liquidity protocols (e.g., LayerZero, Wormhole) will continue to strengthen. In the future, users will no longer focus on "which chain" but rather on "whether it is user-friendly, secure, and sufficiently liquid." This presents enormous development space for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and aggregated liquidity protocols.

Overall, in the second half of 2025, the differentiation of assets and chains in the crypto market will become more pronounced. With technological advancements and changing market demands, multiple public chains will competitively occupy market shares, and the application scenarios of various digital assets will become increasingly rich. The trend of differentiation in the crypto market not only promotes the diversified development of different asset classes but also accelerates the overall structure's maturation and improvement.

Chapter 5: Outlook and Strategic Recommendations—Can We Welcome a New Round of Market Trends in the Second Half of the Year?

As 2025 gradually unfolds, after experiencing earlier turbulence and adjustments, market participants' expectations for the future are gradually shifting towards a more positive direction. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, whether the crypto market can welcome a new round of trend rebounds depends on changes in the macro economy, advancements in blockchain technology, market capital liquidity, and adjustments in the policy environment. In this context, we propose the following strategic recommendations to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.

5.1. Key Driving Factors: Macroeconomic Recovery, Technological Advancements, and Capital Flow

To determine whether the crypto market can welcome a new round of trend rebounds, it is essential to clarify several key driving factors:

• Macroeconomic Recovery: As the global economy gradually recovers from the post-pandemic recession, monetary and fiscal policies in various countries may also undergo easing changes. Especially in the U.S. and Europe, easing monetary policies may lead to more capital flowing into the crypto market. Additionally, with increasing uncertainty in global financial markets and heightened volatility in traditional assets, more investors are turning to crypto assets as a safe-haven choice.

• Technological Innovation and Network Upgrades: Continuous innovations in blockchain technology, particularly the technological upgrades of public chains like Ethereum 2.0, Solana, and Polkadot, will bring higher trading efficiency and lower costs to the market, enhancing the attractiveness of crypto assets. Simultaneously, the maturation of Layer 2 technologies, strengthening of cross-chain protocols, and ongoing development of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) may become significant technological forces driving market rebounds.

• Capital Liquidity and Institutional Participation: As institutional investors gradually enter the crypto market, the liquidity of market capital will also improve. The participation of institutional funds not only provides deeper market liquidity but also enhances market stability and maturity. Especially with the launch of ETFs and futures, more traditional investors are beginning to participate, injecting new vitality into the crypto market.

5.2. Key Factors for Rebound in the Second Half of the Year

Although the outlook for the crypto market is promising, whether it can welcome a new round of trend rebounds in the second half of the year still depends on the interplay of several key factors:

• Clarification of Policies: Currently, there remains uncertainty regarding regulatory policies for the crypto market globally. While some countries have begun to provide clear regulatory frameworks for the crypto market, others are still in a wait-and-see mode. Further clarification of regulatory policies, especially regarding stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs, will have a profound impact on the market. If major economies like the U.S., Europe, and Asia introduce more friendly policies and positively guide crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflows will significantly improve.

• Improvement of Market Sentiment: In the second half of 2025, the warming of sentiment in the crypto market will be a crucial prerequisite for market rebounds. Compared to 2024, market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimism to neutrality, with investors increasingly recognizing crypto assets. As the macroeconomic environment improves and more investors join, market sentiment is expected to further improve, potentially triggering capital inflows. This process may gradually be realized with the support of technological innovations and policies, ultimately driving market prices upward.

• Large Capital Involvement: The involvement of large capital, especially institutional investors, will be another key factor for the rebound of the crypto market. In the second half of 2025, as more financial institutions and large capital participate, market liquidity and flow scale will significantly increase. Particularly with the booming development of ETFs, futures, and other derivative markets, market volatility may decrease, and capital inflows and market stability will be further enhanced.

• Maturity of Decentralized Finance (DeFi): As an important component of the crypto market, DeFi may experience further development in the second half of 2025. Improvements in the security, liquidity, and user experience of DeFi protocols will attract more investors and developers to participate. The expansion of DeFi platforms and decentralized financial services will bring new momentum to the entire crypto market, especially in the fields of cross-chain trading and DeFi derivatives innovation.

5.3. Strategic Recommendations

In light of the potential rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025, investors should formulate corresponding investment strategies based on market potential and risks. Here are several feasible strategic recommendations:

• Stick to Long-Term Investment in Mainstream Assets: Despite the presence of numerous emerging chains and assets in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the "main forces" in the crypto market. Bitcoin, as digital gold, will not easily lose its status as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to dominate the development of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum remains a sound strategy, especially when market sentiment improves, as the return potential of mainstream assets remains considerable.

• Focus on Innovative Chains and Emerging Assets: For investors with a higher risk appetite, it may be worthwhile to consider investing in public chains and assets that possess technological innovation and high growth potential. For example, chains like Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot are attracting increasing attention from developers and investors. These chains offer different technological solutions compared to Ethereum, boasting higher trading efficiency and lower transaction costs, thus their market performance may exceed expectations, particularly in applications within DeFi and NFTs.

• Strengthen Allocation in Stablecoins and DeFi Assets: Stablecoins and DeFi assets, as important components of the crypto market, also provide new investment opportunities for investors. The application scenarios of stablecoins will further expand, becoming important mediums for cross-chain trading and decentralized finance. Meanwhile, DeFi protocols and assets may become new growth points in the market, and investors can consider allocating some high-quality DeFi tokens to share in the growth dividends of the DeFi ecosystem.

• Monitor Policy Dynamics and Regulatory Risks: Investors should always pay attention to policy changes in the global crypto market, especially regarding regulations on stablecoins, DeFi, and NFTs. Support and constraints from policies will directly affect capital inflows and the development direction of the market. Actively monitoring regulatory progress and swiftly adjusting investment strategies once policies are clarified will help mitigate policy risks and seize potential investment opportunities.

In summary, the potential for a rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025 remains significant, but whether a new round of trends can be welcomed depends on the interplay of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery, technological advancements, capital liquidity to policy clarification, all factors are providing momentum for the recovery of the crypto market. In this context, investors should flexibly adjust their strategies and continuously monitor market changes and potential opportunities.