The United States continues to engage in confrontations with the world over tariff edge policies. Trump recently claimed to have conducted "over 200" trade negotiations and stated that he recently had a call with China. However, this claim was quickly refuted by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, which stated that "there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariff issues" and emphasized that "the U.S. should stop creating confusion."

Trump's second term is about to reach one hundred days, but the geopolitical situation has undergone tremendous changes compared to a few months ago. The question is no longer whether the United States will decouple from the world, but rather "how" it will decouple; and the United States' "exorbitant privilege" in the global reserve currency system is also facing substantial challenges.

Since the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market has entered the "post-bull market" phase, exhibiting characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin successfully reached a new high driven by the halving cycle, it soon entered a correction phase. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy did not shift to easing as expected, and the intensifying trade tensions between the U.S. and China have once again cast a shadow of macroeconomic uncertainty over the cryptocurrency market.

After a whole week of intense geopolitical offensives by the United States against other countries, the market finally welcomed a positive conclusion. President Trump seems to have made significant concessions, announcing that smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices will be excluded from the reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection also subsequently stated that these products will be excluded from the 10% global tariff imposed on most countries.

Macroeconomic assets have plummeted across the board, with the Nasdaq index retreating nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks dropping 4%, and the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets plunging 9% this morning, showing signs of a modern-day "Black Monday." The recent wave of sell-offs was triggered by China's retaliatory measures against the U.S. (such as restrictions on rare earth exports), but no domestic stimulus measures have been introduced to offset the impact.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order to officially implement the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all trading partners, with additional higher tariffs on over 60 countries/regions. This policy has triggered significant fluctuations in global markets, causing turmoil in Wall Street stock markets and pushing gold prices to historic highs. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin prices experiencing significant volatility.

The relationship between global liquidity and BTC prices is gradually weakening, and native drivers of cryptocurrency may become key indicators.

In the past week, market sentiment has clearly stabilized, and risk assets have shown signs of recovery after experiencing several weeks of intense selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's recent rhetoric and actions have also been relatively moderate. However, Trump stated in a conversation in the Oval Office last Friday that the United States is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), which will impose retaliatory equivalent tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the U.S.

Last week, the asset market experienced another rollercoaster of volatility. However, with various technical indicators (such as the CBOE put-call ratio rising to its highest level since last summer) showing extreme oversold conditions, the market saw a nice rebound on Thursday/Friday. With no new tariff or geopolitical news, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown alleviated, and U.S. stocks being in an extremely oversold state, this provided...

For readers unfamiliar with the term, "FAFO" is an abbreviation for "F— around and find out," which may be the most fitting description of the current global situation. President Trump's second term has started tumultuously, perhaps even beyond the expectations of his most loyal supporters. Investor sentiment is affected by his extreme tariff and military negotiation strategies with former and current U.S. allies, leading to continued turbulence in the U.S. asset markets...

The market environment information is chaotic, and it's hard to know where to start. First, regarding cryptocurrencies, the price of BTC plummeted to $78,000 last week. According to Coinglass, over $3 billion in futures long positions were liquidated, and BTC is set to face its worst monthly performance since June 2022. At the same time, ETFs also experienced the largest monthly outflow in history (with $2.5 billion flowing out just last week).

This week's focus will be on CPI and earnings reports, with the market currently having relatively positive expectations for both. Overall, CPI is expected to remain below 3%, and the breakeven inflation rate remains stable. However, the preliminary rise in inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, combined with strong wage growth, may tilt the risk balance upward, which is extremely unfavorable for current market sentiment.

The end of 2024 is approaching, and the last few trading days of this year are more important than expected.