U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order to officially implement the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all trading partners, with additional higher tariffs on over 60 countries/regions. This policy has triggered significant fluctuations in global markets, causing turmoil in Wall Street stock markets and pushing gold prices to historic highs. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was also affected, with Bitcoin prices experiencing significant volatility.

The relationship between global liquidity and BTC prices is gradually weakening, and native drivers of cryptocurrency may become key indicators.

In the past week, market sentiment has clearly stabilized, and risk assets have shown signs of recovery after experiencing several weeks of intense selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's recent rhetoric and actions have also been relatively moderate. However, Trump stated in a conversation in the Oval Office last Friday that the United States is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), which will impose retaliatory equivalent tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the U.S.

Last week, the asset market experienced another rollercoaster of volatility. However, with various technical indicators (such as the CBOE put-call ratio rising to its highest level since last summer) showing extreme oversold conditions, the market saw a nice rebound on Thursday/Friday. With no new tariff or geopolitical news, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown alleviated, and U.S. stocks being in an extremely oversold state, this provided...

For readers unfamiliar with the term, "FAFO" is an abbreviation for "F— around and find out," which may be the most fitting description of the current global situation. President Trump's second term has started tumultuously, perhaps even beyond the expectations of his most loyal supporters. Investor sentiment is affected by his extreme tariff and military negotiation strategies with former and current U.S. allies, leading to continued turbulence in the U.S. asset markets...

The market environment information is chaotic, and it's hard to know where to start. First, regarding cryptocurrencies, the price of BTC plummeted to $78,000 last week. According to Coinglass, over $3 billion in futures long positions were liquidated, and BTC is set to face its worst monthly performance since June 2022. At the same time, ETFs also experienced the largest monthly outflow in history (with $2.5 billion flowing out just last week).

This week's focus will be on CPI and earnings reports, with the market currently having relatively positive expectations for both. Overall, CPI is expected to remain below 3%, and the breakeven inflation rate remains stable. However, the preliminary rise in inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, combined with strong wage growth, may tilt the risk balance upward, which is extremely unfavorable for current market sentiment.

The end of 2024 is approaching, and the last few trading days of this year are more important than expected.

Last week's disappointing non-farm payroll data once again raised concerns in the market about an impending economic recession, and the market increasingly believes that the Federal Reserve is falling behind the yield curve...