Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, what will the market do next?

Author: 0xFacai, BlockBeats

After BTC broke through $70,000 on July 29, it began a downward trend, reaching $49,000 on August 5, then rebounding to $65,000 before continuing to decline. On September 6, it formed a double bottom-like structure around $53,000, and on September 19, the Federal Reserve confirmed a rate cut, leading BTC to rise accordingly. During the U.S. trading session on September 26, with a strong rise in U.S. stock indices, BTC had already broken through the previous high of $65,000, disrupting the structure of lower lows and higher highs.

Is this a genuine breakdown of the downward structure or a false breakout of the previous high? How to interpret this from a technical perspective, combined with the depth of contract/spot order books and liquidation maps for future market judgments, and whether the macro environment can support the second half of a bull market, as well as how the market will price the rate cut, are all topics of discussion among trading bloggers.

Technical Analysis Stream

@Crypto_Scient believes that the trend of USDT.D (USDT Dominance) can be used to speculate on the future development of BTC: If USDT.D follows the red path, seizing liquidity in the daily liquidity accumulation area and then retesting the rising trend line before rising, then BTC will show a bearish trend; if USDT.D follows the blue path, breaking the trend and reversing it, then BTC will enter a bullish trend and reach a new historical high. We now need to wait and observe USDT.D for a clear signal before deciding on future trading strategies.

@AltcoinSherpa believes that the price trend here is bearish, and liquidity for BTC at $40,000 needs to be obtained.

@trader_koala thinks that observation is needed here, and has prepared two trading strategies: if the support level retests effectively, buy near the order block; if the support level fails, then buy on a deeper decline. If a daily K candle closes below approximately $59,000, such a deeper decline would target an upward move to $68,000 to $70,000.

@CryptosLaowai believes that BTC has captured liquidity at $65,000, and a sharp drop may occur. The upward trend that BTC has started since $53,000 is in the form of an ascending expanding wedge, and as the wedge approaches its end, a directional choice will occur, most likely downward, targeting a retest of support at $57,000 to $59,000, then capturing liquidity at the rising trend line around $68,000 before dropping.

@0xtaibai believes that BTC is stagnating at the resistance level of the previous high on the 4-hour chart, and the breakout has not been successful, which may lead to consolidation. However, there is no reversal structure for a decline. If a bearish structure appears and the breakout fails, then a short position will be considered. The main observation is the green area, which is a potential range for consolidation. Currently, the overall upward trend has not been broken, and a consolidation or slight pullback is expected before continuing upward.

@goukiller believes that in the weekly level game, the Pivot Point's R3 defense has been successful, and we are still in an upward trend, with subsequent upward targets at R4 $68,100 and R5 $79,000.

Data Analysis Stream

@xiaomo924 believes that BTC has broken through the previous high, but the bullish momentum has not continued. If there is no sustained buying, a consolidation and pullback will be needed in the short term. Attention should be paid to the strength of the retest of the 4-hour EMA20 and 50, to see if support is found there.

In the rising phase, the depth difference of contract orders is greater than that of spot orders, indicating that contract buying volume is greater than spot. If there is no more spot buying volume in the future, there will be a risk of a false breakout.

The long-short ratio has reached a low point, and whales are in a state of closing long positions, so attention should be paid to the pullback after short-term demand is released.

@Xbt886 found from the order book that there are a large number of sell orders between $66,000 and $66,700, and a large number of buy orders between $62,000 and $63,000. Overall, the outlook is bullish, and a pullback can be expected. However, it is also possible that these are just hanging orders attracting attention and will not actually be executed. Do not blindly short between $62,000 and $63,000. Currently, it seems that those who have captured short liquidity and chased high have already been trapped, so it is better to observe conservatively.

Macro Analysis Stream

@Phyrex_Ni believes that it is still uncertain whether a bull market is returning. BTC's on-chain turnover is low, and the greatest possibility for an increase remains due to low liquidity. Yellen's speech highlighted two key points in the macro environment: one is that the U.S. economy is still doing well, with the possibility of a soft landing; secondly, although the labor market is currently stable, it remains relatively fragile, requiring the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates to prevent the labor market from collapsing. In the data on BTC purchases, user sentiment seems to have been somewhat mobilized, with a noticeable increase in purchasing power. There has even been a significant increase in ETF purchases reported in phases, and many investors have started to sell cautiously, even short-term profit-takers are beginning to expect higher prices.

Meanwhile, earlier investors remain indifferent, and the chip accumulation area between $62,500 and $64,000 is still increasing, now exceeding 1.324 million coins, while the support between $64,000 and $69,000 remains in very good condition. The current price changes still depend on whether short-term holders are willing to release their chips.