Cryptocurrency Circle 9.4 Seventh Anniversary, Will Bitcoin Definitely Drop in September?

Today is September 4th again, marking exactly 7 years since the "earthquake" in the cryptocurrency market on that date. September 4th is a day that every cryptocurrency enthusiast needs to be constantly vigilant about. The wood that stands out in the forest will be blown down by the wind, let alone those rootless projects and brokers with sweet words and hidden daggers, whose greedy tactics are at play. When rules cannot restrain the devil, heaven will impose penalties, just like on September 4th when the seven ministries of the state issued the "Announcement on Preventing Risks of Token Issuance and Financing," which immediately halted ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings, a method of fundraising in cryptocurrency that allows project parties to raise funds by issuing new tokens to investors), directly classifying them as illegal financial activities. All domestic virtual currency trading platforms were ordered to close within a deadline and stop new user registrations. Prices fell, exchanges and token projects went overseas, the threshold for monetization and new users became higher, and services in mainland China became a restricted area for the cryptocurrency industry, with impacts and significance comparable to a nuclear bomb earthquake.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to end September with a decline. This September, there is also the risk of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, non-farm employment reports, the U.S. elections, and the unpredictable risks of localized wars in regions like Russia, Ukraine, Japan, Israel, and others, which increase the uncertainty of September. Today, influenced by the decline in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin continued to drop from $59,000 last night, accelerating its decline at nine o'clock, reaching a low of $55,600, the lowest since August 8th, with a nearly 24-hour decline exceeding 5%.

What will happen to Bitcoin's trend next? There are significant differences in opinions among institutions and analysts:

Bearish:

Wolfe Research Analyst: Bitcoin may return to the low $50,000 range in the coming weeks.

On September 2nd, Rob Ginsberg, a chart analyst at Wolfe Research, stated that the entire cryptocurrency sector is not optimistic, with Bitcoin in a downward channel, gradually falling from its March highs. A short-term breakout would be beneficial, but the overall trend remains. In the coming weeks, Bitcoin may return to the low $50,000 range. Since peaking in March, Bitcoin's trend has deteriorated, showing a series of lower lows, and unless the trend changes, it will continue to be bearish on Bitcoin's short to mid-term price.

Crypto Analyst Ali: Bitcoin has not yet broken through key resistance levels; short-term holder behavior may determine the trend.

On September 1st, crypto analyst Ali stated on the X platform that Bitcoin is currently facing an important price resistance point. Ali pointed out that the actual entry price for short-term investors is currently around $63,250, and since June 22, Bitcoin has been unable to break through this level.

Ali explained that in a downward trend, this price level is likely to become resistance because when the price falls below the entry point, short-term investors are more likely to sell. The analyst warned that the market may face continued selling pressure until BTC converts this area into a support level.

Bitfinex Analyst: The cost for short-term Bitcoin holders is $63,900; lack of liquidity will persist into September.

On August 30th, a Bitfinex analyst stated that the characteristics of a lack of liquidity may continue into September, making it difficult for Bitcoin to overcome the resistance level of $63,900, as the current price struggles to break through the actual holding cost of short-term holders at $63,900. Additionally, Mt. Gox and the U.S. government still have nearly $15 billion in potential selling pressure. The U.S. government holds over 203,000 Bitcoins, worth $12.1 billion, while Mt. Gox will distribute an additional 46,000 Bitcoins, worth over $2.7 billion.

10x Research: Market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened; each decline becomes deeper, and recoveries weaker.

10x Research stated that while they are optimistic about the mid to long-term prospects of digital assets, caution is needed regarding short-term volatility. The market experienced V-shaped rebounds after declines in May, July, and August, but the market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened, with each decline becoming deeper and recoveries weaker. Recent data suggests that the market may face a turning point in September. Previously, 10x Research indicated in an analysis on August 28th that the Bitcoin market rebound was strategic, with $65,000 being crucial for paper profits. The FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's dovish stance drove the Bitcoin rebound, with potential short squeezes pushing Bitcoin prices higher. Although a 10% increase was predicted, these gains have been completely retraced, and as September approaches, significant risks begin to emerge.

Bullish:

Spot On Chain Analysis: Due to the weakening of major selling forces, Bitcoin may break the "September decline" routine.

Spot On Chain analysis states that although September typically sees declines, this drop is not inevitable, due to factors such as: the elimination of selling pressure from the government of Germany, strong long-term holders, the potential for BTC ETFs to become new buying power, and support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the U.S. elections.

Crypto Analyst Miles Deutscher: Bitcoin shows a recent trend of "Asian buying and American selling," with potential upward stimuli in the coming week.

On August 31st, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out that Bitcoin is showing a trend of "Asian buying and American selling." Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin's returns during Asian trading hours exceeded 5%, while U.S. stocks showed negative returns. Next week, attention will be on the non-farm employment report for August, to be released on September 6th (Friday), which may trigger expectations for interest rate cuts. If September's employment data is weak, it could lead to a 50 basis point rate cut, providing positive stimuli for risk markets. If the report is strong, it may weaken market expectations for loose monetary policy. Regardless of the outcome, the market is likely to experience volatility in the future, with a roughly 50% chance of an upward movement.

CryptoQuant Analyst: On-chain indicators show Bitcoin is approaching "favorable" buying levels, with prices at or near their lows.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu recently released an analysis report indicating that Bitcoin prices are at or near their lows. He stated that there is a close correlation between Bitcoin's hash price and its market price, and the current low hash price may suggest that Bitcoin prices are approaching a bottom. Woominkyu explained that the hash price reflects miners' profitability. He illustrated through charts that historically, when the hash price falls to low levels (marked by blue boxes in the chart), it often corresponds to periods when Bitcoin prices are at or near their lows. This historical pattern indicates that the lows in hash prices often coincide with the moments when Bitcoin prices hit bottom.

Bull markets often mark the beginning of losses for most people, while bear markets still have steadfast value investors buying the dip. Those who can manage asset allocation and execute with integrity find their own certainties in the face of an uncertain market environment. Whether in a downward curse or a bull market rise, Bitcoin continues to attract the attention of a large number of users.