US non-farm data

4E: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates this week, the "Trump trade" is reversing, and election uncertainty is increasing

ChainCatcher news: The October non-farm data in the U.S. was far below expectations. Excluding the data distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is gradually cooling down. Meanwhile, with the U.S. election results imminent, Trump's chances unexpectedly weakened, reversing the "Trump trade" and adding more uncertainty to the election.According to 4E monitoring, major tech giants released their earnings reports last week. On Friday, despite disappointing earnings from Apple, the weak October non-farm data boosted expectations for interest rate cuts. Coupled with positive earnings from Amazon and Intel, this lifted optimistic sentiment in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%. However, looking at the week as a whole, U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-week rising trend, down 1.5% for the week, the S&P down 1.4%, and the Dow down 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening "Trump trade," and after approaching historical highs at the end of the month, risk aversion increased. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, with a 7-day increase dropping to 1.8%.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar index experienced a V-shaped reversal on "non-farm day," breaking back above 104 and erasing the weekly decline, with a cumulative increase of 0.06% last week. The British pound was the only non-U.S. currency to rise, recovering from the previous two days' sell-off due to the budget proposal, but it has fallen for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in six years. Spot gold saw a slight surge after the non-farm data on Friday, but as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remained strong, it subsequently fell back, ultimately closing down 0.32%, marking the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, U.S. crude oil production reached a new high, and combined with weak economic data such as non-farm payrolls raising demand concerns, international crude oil prices fell from high levels last Friday, with a cumulative drop of over 3% for the week.This week is set to be historic, as the U.S. election will commence final voting on November 5 (Tuesday), with results expected to be largely finalized by noon on the 6th Beijing time. Currently, the election situation is tense, with polls in swing states constantly flipping. The latest polls show no significant advantage between Trump and Harris, leading some investors to take profits on Trump-oriented positions, especially those related to Trump's policies and improvements in public opinion polls. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with increased uncertainty. eeee.com is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

Bitfinex Analyst: After the release of the US non-farm payroll data tonight, Bitcoin prices may stabilize or decline further

ChainCatcher news, according to Crypto Briefing, Bitfinex's derivatives head Jag Kooner stated that the non-farm payroll (NFP) data to be released on Friday (8:30 PM Beijing time) could stabilize Bitcoin prices or, in the worst-case scenario, lead to further declines. The cautious tone of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes suggests that clearer economic data is needed before any interest rate cuts, which may help keep Bitcoin prices stable or, in the worst case, result in a slight drop.Kooner analyzed that investors might also view the lack of immediate rate cuts as a sign of ongoing economic uncertainty, which could reduce their risk appetite for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Regarding the health of the labor market, the slowdown in job growth indicates that the labor market is cooling, consistent with the Fed's observations of slowing economic activity. However, a stable unemployment rate suggests that while job growth is slowing, the overall employment situation remains stable. Therefore, the non-farm payroll report leaves room for two scenarios. The first scenario is that job growth is weaker than expected, which could increase expectations for future rate cuts, potentially boosting Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative assets under the expectation of loose monetary policy. Conversely, the second scenario is that if the job market proves to be more resilient, Bitcoin will face downward pressure.
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