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JPMorgan: Expects Robinhood's cryptocurrency business revenue to decline in Q1 after hitting a record at the end of 2024

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington predicts that Robinhood (HOOD) may struggle to sustain its record cryptocurrency trading revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a potential decline in digital asset trading volume in the first quarter of 2025. The trading platform is set to announce its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on May 1, Eastern Time.The report shows that Robinhood's cryptocurrency trading revenue surged 700% in the fourth quarter of last year, driving a significant increase in overall trading revenue. However, due to the dual impact of a stock and bond market downturn in the later part of the first quarter and a correction in the cryptocurrency market, it is expected that the trading volume for that quarter will drop from $71 billion in the fourth quarter to $52 billion. The assets under custody (AUC) are expected to decline by 5% quarter-over-quarter to $183.3 billion, but still show a year-over-year growth of 41%.Although retail buying was stimulated by U.S. tariff policies in early April, analysts believe this is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in the first quarter. Weak demand for margin and derivatives trading may further drag down performance. JPMorgan maintains a "neutral" rating, lowering the target price by $1 to $44, implying about a 10% downside from the current stock price of $49.

4E: The escalation of the trade war threatens to overwhelm the benefits of slowing inflation, leading to declines in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the threat of an escalation in the China-U.S. tariff war has overshadowed the positive effects of slowing inflation. Investor concerns have taken precedence, and U.S. stocks failed to maintain Wednesday's significant rebound. On Thursday, the three major indices at one point dropped by at least 5%, although the decline narrowed towards the end of trading. By the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%, having at one point dropped by 6.3%, nearing the 7% first-level circuit breaker, marking the largest intraday drop since March 2020; the Nasdaq fell by 4.31%, and the Dow Jones by 2.5%. Major tech stocks collectively declined, with the seven giants index dropping by 6.67%.In the cryptocurrency market, the strong rebound from the previous day reversed sharply last night alongside the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to a low of $78,464, nearly erasing all gains from the previous day. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $80,258, down 2.67%. Among the top ten mainstream coins, Ethereum performed the weakest, influenced by whale sell-offs and the decoupling of sUSD, briefly falling below $1,500. Before the deadline, it is reported at $1,541, down 6% in nearly 24 hours.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.89%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022. Oil prices dropped over 3% due to weak supply and demand expectations. Risk aversion surged, with gold reaching $3,220, setting a new historical high.Latest data shows that the U.S. March CPI fell short of expectations across the board, but the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized, which may soothe investors in the future. As Trump's chaotic tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, expectations of a tightening global supply chain have intensified, raising broader concerns about an economic recession. The market remains skeptical about whether the 90-day tariff delay can lead to substantial negotiation outcomes.

4E: Tariff escalation triggers a new round of sell-offs, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency markets decline

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, as the "peer tariff" policy approaches its effective date, Trump signed the latest executive order on Tuesday, raising tariffs on China to 104%, causing global markets to plunge into a panic sell-off once again.The three major U.S. stock indexes surged in early trading due to optimistic expectations for trade negotiations, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rising over 4%. However, following the tariff news, market sentiment reversed, and gains quickly evaporated, turning into declines. By the close, the Nasdaq fell 2.15%, the Dow dropped 0.84%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.57%. The index of the seven tech giants fell over 2.3%, oscillating downward throughout the day, with losses narrowing towards the end.The cryptocurrency market followed the U.S. stock market down again, with Bitcoin dropping from last night's high of 80,000 to a low of 74,620, nearing a new low, and reporting at 76,053 before the deadline, down 5.8% in 24 hours. The altcoin market generally suffered heavy losses, particularly in the meme and AI sectors, with the market in a state of extreme panic.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index halted its two-day winning streak, falling about 0.3%, while safe-haven demand drove the yen and Swiss franc higher; crude oil fell for four consecutive days, hitting a new low in four years; spot gold showed a trend of rising and then falling throughout the day, retreating above the psychological level of 3,000 dollars.The market generally believes that the extremely high tariff of 104% has escalated the U.S.-China trade war to an unprecedented level of intensity. The market is closely watching the subsequent actions of both the U.S. and China, as well as whether other countries will be drawn into a broader trade conflict. In the short term, the market may continue to be shrouded in high uncertainty.
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