ChainCatcher news, analysts indicate that the overall inflation rate in the U.S. for September is also higher by one-tenth of a percentage point, reaching 0.2%, which increases the rationale for a 25 basis point rate cut next month instead of 50 basis points. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims surged by 258,000, but this will be affected by factors such as hurricanes. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 76.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 23.9%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 75.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E Exchange observations, the year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. CPI in August fell to 2.5%, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month, but the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. The market has lowered its expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 85%.After the data was released, U.S. stocks experienced a V-shaped rebound following an initial drop at the open, with all three major indices closing higher. The Dow rose slightly by 0.31%, the Nasdaq gained 2.17%, and the S&P 500 index increased by 1.07%. Tech stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia rising over 8%. In the forex and commodities markets, the dollar index surged, putting pressure on non-dollar currencies, while gold experienced significant volatility.CPI data indicates that the Federal Reserve is approaching its 2% target, a change that will support future rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and supporting the long-term rise of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin. However, the Federal Reserve's focus on core inflation may lead to a more cautious monetary policy, limiting the short-term upside potential for the market.4E Exchange is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and forex, and is a platinum sponsor for Token2049 in 2024. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 15% (before the CPI announcement, these were 71% and 29%, respectively).The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 43.8%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 7.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 27%, 55%, and 18%, respectively). (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, after the release of the US CPI data, the three major US stock index futures fell sharply in the short term, with Dow futures down 0.66%, S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq futures down 0.45%. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. August unadjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, the lowest level since February 2021, and below the market expectation of 2.6%. (Jin Ten)

According to ChainCatcher news, data from CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 71%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 29%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 27%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 55%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 18%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, the CICC major asset inflation sub-item prediction model shows that as long as no black swan events occur, the U.S. CPI inflation is likely to remain in the range of 2.5%-3% this year, and PCE will remain in the range of 2%-2.5%. The risk of secondary inflation in the second half of the year is low, alleviating concerns for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 3.2%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, the lowest level since April 2021, in line with market expectations. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 49.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 50.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 30%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 19.9%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, tomorrow's U.S. inflation report will be the focus, and investors will look for signals on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. A recent series of unexpected events has weakened rate cut expectations. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options indicates that traders expect its volatility to not rise significantly after the report is released.Institutional liquidity provider OrBit Markets stated, "The market's pricing premium for this event is almost negligible," noting that the price volatility of Bitcoin after the CPI report is published may be less than 2%, with almost no additional volatility, while the S&P 500 index options pricing reflects relatively high volatility.10x Research founder Markus Thielen has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis aligns with OrBit's: "The implied volatility of options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means traders expect volatility to rise moderately after the CPI is released. However, the realized (historical) volatility remains below 50%, indicating that expectations for significant upward or downward movements are not reflected in the prices."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport, a cryptocurrency financial services company under Wu Jihan, stated that in the first half of 2024, several key events could impact the trajectory of Bitcoin, including the SEC's approval of a Bitcoin ETF, Circle's potential IPO, and FTX's efforts to regain its position among the top three exchanges.These events, along with Bitcoin's halving cycle and Ethereum's upgrade in the first quarter of 2024, are shaping an optimistic outlook.In line with market expectations, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in mid-2024. Bitcoin could see a rebound after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, striving to break through $36,000, targeting $40,000, and aiming to reach $45,000 by the end of the year.Additionally, stable buying activity from U.S. buyers and the possibility of a Santa Claus rally also bring a positive outlook to the market.