ChainCatcher message, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the employment report for April makes the possibility of a rate cut in June less likely (although June is still far away), as there will only be one more employment report before then. For now, this means the Fed does not have to make any comments about the June meeting next week.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 99.4% (up from 95.3% before the non-farm payroll data release), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.6%.The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 53.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 45.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investments at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that at this moment, robust labor market data provides the Federal Reserve with the space for patience. However, as the forward-looking outlook deteriorates, today's data feels somewhat retrospective, and the risk of economic weakness potentially leading the Federal Reserve to resume its easing cycle later this year still exists.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for April is 177,000, expected to be 130,000, and the previous value was revised from 228,000 to 185,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, due to the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, gold futures rose in relatively light trading. However, after a significant sell-off on Thursday, they are down overall this week.Analysts at SP Angel stated in a report that the outflow of ETF funds indicates that traders and investors have taken profits after gold prices have risen 21% year-to-date. SP Angel noted that easing trade tensions are reducing gold's appeal, while Trump announced he does not intend to fire Powell. The focus now shifts to the U.S. employment data to be released on Friday. If the data is weaker than expected, it would boost optimism about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would be favorable for non-yielding gold.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7%, down from 60.1% before the non-farm payroll report. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 44.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 3.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-farm payroll employment in January was revised from 125,000 to 111,000; the non-farm payroll employment in February was revised from 151,000 to 117,000. After revisions, the total new jobs added in January and February is 48,000 lower than before the revisions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for March recorded 228,000, an increase higher than the market expectation of 135,000. The U.S. dollar index rose 20 points in the short term, currently reported at 101.87. U.S. stock index futures further declined after the release of the March non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, before the non-farm payrolls announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May, according to CME's "Fed Watch," is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.2%.

ChainCatcher message, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the unemployment rate for March and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for March at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook at 23:25 tonight.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that Trump announced on Wednesday a 10% tariff on all imported goods and launched a "reciprocal tariff" policy targeting countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., reigniting global trade tensions.As a result:BTC fell from an intraday high of $88,500 to $81,200, a decline of over 8%The cryptocurrency market saw massive liquidations, with long positions liquidated exceeding $221 millionU.S. stock futures plummeted, with Nasdaq futures down 4.28% and S&P 500 futures down 3.38%Consumer stocks with high supply chain exposure were hit hard, with American Eagle plunging 17.47%The market is currently focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Amid expectations of an economic slowdown, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement four rate cuts in 2025, with cuts of 25 basis points each in June, July, September, and December.In the options market, short-term volatility remains high, and demand for downside protection has increased, reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, analysts believe that a rebound may occur in the short term as risk assets are generally oversold.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the financial website Forexlive stated that the importance of Powell's speech on Friday will outweigh the non-farm payroll data. The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in June, but all comments from Federal Reserve officials on tariff issues have become more hawkish.If Powell's wording also turns hawkish, then be cautious as the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may undergo a significant repricing.

ChainCatcher news, Nasdaq-listed mining company Bitfarms announced on platform X that it has reached a preliminary agreement for a $300 million private debt financing with Macquarie Group to fund the initial HPC project development at Panther Creek in Pennsylvania. The initial financing amount is $50 million, with a maximum drawable amount of $300 million upon final document signing. It is expected that Macquarie Group will provide funding for the initial construction of the Panther Creek data center in a non-dilutive manner.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the data released last week has heightened market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Increasing signs indicate that due to worries about tariffs driving up inflation, U.S. consumer confidence has significantly declined, spending has decreased, and long-term inflation expectations have risen. U.S. stocks fell sharply last week, ending the strong rebound from the previous week. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.53%, the Dow Jones by 0.96%, and the Nasdaq by 2.59%. The Magnificent 7 index of tech giants dropped by 2.95% last week.The cryptocurrency market followed the U.S. stock market's downward trend. Bitcoin started the week by rising close to $89,000, but then fell back under pressure from Trump's tariff news, with Friday's PCE data further exacerbating the decline. As of the deadline, it was reported at $81,884, down 4.46% over the past 7 days. Other major tokens generally fell, with Ethereum dropping below $1,800, nearing new lows. Market sentiment remains gloomy and may continue to be under pressure until Trump's tariff actions become clearer.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell by 0.05% last week; risk assets were suppressed by safe-haven demand, while geopolitical tensions supported some bottoming out. Oil prices rose by about 2% last week, and gold has increased for four consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high, with spot gold surpassing $3,100.Last week's weak data reignited economic concerns, leading to a comprehensive decline in financial markets. As Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" loom on April 2, market nerves are frayed, and safe-haven sentiment is rising. Additionally, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for March will be released this Friday evening, followed by a speech from Powell. The Federal Reserve held steady in March, and the market is looking forward to Powell's further insights on the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies, seeking new clues for the direction of the Fed's monetary policy and more reliable guidance for the market direction in April.

ChainCatcher news, on Monday morning, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell more than 0.5%. More volatility may occur this week as Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, and the U.S. March ADP employment figures will also be released on Wednesday. This Friday will see the release of the U.S. March unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data, and on the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech.Pepperstone's Head of Research, Chris Weston, stated: "The market is now completely influenced by the upcoming wave of tariff-related headlines, while being highly sensitive to any economic data reflecting a slowdown in economic activity and rising inflation expectations. Risk assets will further decline at the beginning of this week, and cross-asset volatility will increase."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Moneyfarm's Chief Investment Officer Richard Flax stated in a report that the data showing a moderate decline in the UK's inflation rate for February is unlikely to alleviate fiscal pressure.The UK's annual overall inflation rate for February fell from 3.0% in January to 2.8%, a decline slightly higher than expected.Flax mentioned that the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer may feel some relief due to the continued easing of inflation, but this moderate decline does little to alleviate fiscal pressure.He also stated that tariff risks could increase import costs, pushing inflation rates up and thereby limiting the Bank of England's room for interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, in Belarus, the Mogilev region has begun preparations for the construction of a cryptocurrency mining site, an initiative supported by President Alexander Lukashenko.

ChainCatcher news, according to Crypto In America, Canadian Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms announced the successful completion of a full stock acquisition of Stronghold Digital Mining, with a transaction value of over $110 million, making it the largest merger and acquisition case between two publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies.This acquisition will increase Bitfarms' share of the North American energy market from 6% to 80%, significantly enhancing its presence in the U.S. PJM grid.It is noteworthy that the world's second-largest Bitcoin mining company, Riot Platforms, previously attempted a hostile takeover of Bitfarms, which ultimately failed, and chose to hold a 20% stake in Bitfarms.

ChainCatcher message, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for February is 151,000, expected to be 160,000, and the previous value has been revised from 143,000 to 125,000. Slightly below expectations.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.