Fitch: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once this year
ChainCatcher news, Fitch stated in its latest global economic outlook that it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend levels and lower than the 2.9% forecast for 2024. At the same time, Fitch has downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and reduced the 2026 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%.Fitch indicated that the increase in tariffs will lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S., lower real wages, and increased business costs, while the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause U.S. inflation to rise by 1% in the near term, and it believes that the Federal Reserve will delay further easing of policy until the fourth quarter of 2025. It now expects the Fed to only cut rates once this year, but with the economic slowdown and stabilization of tariff levels, it anticipates three more rate cuts in 2026.