ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 27.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 61.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 11.1%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7%, down from 60.1% before the non-farm payroll report. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 44.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 3.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, before the non-farm payrolls announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May, according to CME's "Fed Watch," is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.2%.

ChainCatcher news, analysts Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono from Pantheon Macroeconomics believe that in the face of increasing economic uncertainty, the European Central Bank may choose to remain cautious and keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting. This week's data shows that annual overall inflation in the Eurozone continues to slow down, approaching the European Central Bank's 2% target, with core prices also declining. However, Vistesen and Debono stated that risks related to energy prices and other factors remain in the coming months.Meanwhile, Europe is facing turmoil and the pressure of trade tariffs on economic growth, while also having to grapple with the ambiguous effects of internal stimulus plans on infrastructure, particularly in the defense sector.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook reiterated that the Fed can keep interest rates unchanged for "an extended period." The latest economic data from earlier this year shows some signs of weakness, and surveys indicate that consumer expectations are likely to rise further in the near term. However, uncertainties related to trade policy still exist, and the current Fed policy remains restrictive; it is judged that the policy is in good condition.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, it announced a significant slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT), easing market liquidity pressures. Powell reassured investors that the risk of recession is low, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the job market is still solid.According to 4E monitoring, the Fed's dovish stance boosted risk assets, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising on Wednesday: the S&P 500 up 1.08%, the Dow up 0.92%, and the Nasdaq up 1.41%. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla rising 4.68% and Nvidia up 1.81%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin continuing to rise to $87,453 driven by tech stocks, before slightly retreating to $85,866 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%. Other major tokens also rose collectively, with Ethereum returning above $2,000, while XRP surged over 11% due to the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index soared, but the increase quickly narrowed to 0.21% after the Fed announced its decision to hold steady; U.S. oil closed up 0.39%; spot gold prices hit a historic high during trading for two consecutive days, approaching $3,052 during Powell's press conference.Powell acknowledged at the press conference that Trump's economic policies have brought significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, but reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy. The updated dot plot indicates that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, consistent with the forecast from December last year. At the same time, the Fed downgraded its economic growth forecast while raising its inflation expectations, showing characteristics of "stagflation."

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data, Morgan Stanley expects that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at this week's meeting and is not expected to change its policy stance immediately. The Bank of Japan and Governor Kazuo Ueda may emphasize the uncertainty of global economic growth and inflation trends, indicating that patience is needed before considering further policy changes, while reinforcing the cautious attitude of the Bank of Japan.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley expects that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at this week's meeting, and it is anticipated that the bank will not change its policy stance immediately. The Bank of Japan and Governor Kazuo Ueda may emphasize the uncertainty of global economic growth and inflation trends, indicating the need for patience before considering further policy changes, while reinforcing the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 67.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.

ChainCatcher news, 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the impact of President Trump's policies and other factors on the economy may take several months to become clear, indicating that officials may keep interest rates stable at least until late spring.Bostic reiterated that changes in Trump's policies could affect the economy in different ways, increasing economic uncertainty. He mentioned that the new policies of the Trump administration are placing the U.S. economy in "incredible volatility," and he believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to have enough clarity to determine the direction of interest rates before late spring or summer.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased more than expected last week. The Labor Department stated on Thursday that for the week ending February 22, initial claims rose by 22,000, seasonally adjusted to 242,000, higher than the market expectation of 221,000.A separate federal employee unemployment compensation (UCFE) program shows that the large-scale layoffs of federal government probationary employees have not yet had any impact, most of whom were dismissed by Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) around February 14.As policymakers closely monitor the impact of Trump's fiscal, trade, and immigration policies on the economy, historically low layoffs are maintaining the momentum of economic expansion, providing the Federal Reserve with room to keep interest rates unchanged. Economists believe that the Trump administration's policies will lead to inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated on Tuesday that the bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the next two years.He noted at a conference in Washington, "It will take years to deal with inflation, and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation are likely to continue until 2026." The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report on Friday is expected to show the Federal Reserve's progress in combating inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Nomura Securities analyst David Seif's team released the latest report indicating that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has decreased, and it is expected that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2025. Although the U.S. economy remains strong in the short term, the trade policies of the Trump administration may lead to an economic slowdown. Tariff measures will affect consumer spending, and policy uncertainty will suppress business investment. Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve may restart easing policies in the second quarter of 2026 after inflation triggered by tariffs subsides.

ChainCatcher news, today the U.S. January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded 143,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 170,000, marking a new low since October last year. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee commented on the macro data, stating, "This is a solid non-farm payroll report. It looks like we are about to achieve full employment. After recent observations, I am optimistic that tariffs will ultimately not be a significant barrier to trade. I am satisfied with the economic development path. Tariffs may become a 'wrench' in the supply chain. Wage growth is roughly in line with the 2% inflation level. Long-term market-oriented inflation expectations show that the market believes the Federal Reserve will keep inflation under control at 2%.""The current Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates, but in the next 12 to 18 months, rates will be slightly lower than current levels. The pace of rate cuts will slow under greater uncertainty. On the path to achieving the 2% inflation target, we may temporarily keep rates unchanged. The neutral balance point for rates has declined. Stability in rates needs to be achieved on a 'prudent' timetable. I do not believe the Federal Reserve will play a role in any sovereign wealth fund." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, after the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March dropped from 14.5% to 8.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose from 85.5% to 91.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%. By May, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 59.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 36.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, U.S. President Trump stated: "The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week" is correct under the current circumstances and is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 82.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.0%. By May, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 57.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 37.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.5%. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% early this morning.

ChainCatcher message, the full translation of the Federal Reserve's statement on policy is as follows: Recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand robustly. In recent months, the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level, and the labor market remains solid. Inflation is still at relatively high levels.The Committee's goal is to achieve maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%. The Committee believes that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. There is uncertainty in the current economic outlook, and the Committee is closely monitoring risks that may affect its dual mandate.To support its policy objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%. In considering whether to adjust the target range further in terms of magnitude and timing, the Committee will carefully assess the latest economic data, changes in the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Committee is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target.In assessing the appropriate monetary policy stance, the Committee will continue to pay attention to the impact of the latest information on the economic outlook. If risks emerge that could impede the Committee's ability to achieve its goals, the Committee will adjust its monetary policy stance in a timely manner. The Committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as developments in financial and international conditions.