According to ChainCatcher's message, monitored by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the "Hyperliquid 50x Whale" made frenzied trades around the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement, turning 690,000 USDC into 1,826,000 USDC in just 3 hours, achieving a profit of 164%.The specific operations are as follows:At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve was set to announce the interest rate decision. He shorted 326 BTC (27.6 million USD) at a price of $84,566 at midnight, then closed the short position at a price of $83,927 just before the announcement (1:48), making a profit of $215,000;As soon as the interest rate was announced at 2 PM, he immediately shorted 256 BTC (21.6 million USD) at a price of $84,404 at 2:01, and quickly closed the position at $83,906 six minutes later, making a profit of $250,000;After closing the short position, he immediately went long, opening a long position of 518 BTC (43.8 million USD) at a price of $84,500 at 2:10, and then closed the position at $85,700 at 2:59, making a profit of $620,000;After closing the long position, he immediately shorted again: at 3:00, he shorted 384 BTC (32.9 million USD) at a price of $85,666, and closed the position just two minutes later at $85,146, making a profit of $106,000.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement shows that Federal Reserve Governor Waller opposed this interest rate decision. He supports keeping the policy rate unchanged but is more inclined to not change the pace of balance sheet reduction.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will announce its rate assessment, economic growth and inflation forecasts, and interest rate outlook at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow. Volmex's one-day implied volatility index indicates that this highly anticipated event could trigger volatility in the crypto market, leading to price fluctuations of 3% to 5% for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL.As of 12:30 PM UTC, the Bitcoin one-day implied volatility index (BVIV) shows an annualized volatility of 63.32%, corresponding to an expected 24-hour price fluctuation of 3.31%. Similarly, the volatility indices for Ethereum and SOL suggest expected 24-hour price fluctuations of 5.25% and 5.73%, respectively.

According to ChainCatcher news, based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight (March 20, 2 AM Beijing time). The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is only 1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 99%.The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by May is 0.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 18.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 81.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 8 days left until the next FOMC meeting (interest rate decision to be announced on March 20 at 2 AM Beijing time). The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96%.The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 38.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 60.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and update its quarterly economic forecast on February 6 at 20:00 (Beijing time). Several institutions expect the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% and maintain the policy guidance of "one rate cut per quarter."Goldman Sachs pointed out that the recent weak economic growth in the UK, deteriorating labor market indicators, and gradually rising inflation in basic services will support the rate cut decision. Deutsche Bank expects the voting result to be 8 votes in favor and 1 vote against.IFR, a subsidiary of Reuters, expects the central bank to reiterate that "gradually easing policy restrictions remains appropriate" and to maintain the pace of one rate cut per quarter until August. Ebury strategists warn that if the central bank signals a more aggressive rate cut than expected, the pound may come under pressure and decline.

ChainCatcher News, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the U.S. as of January 29 is 4.5% (upper limit), expected 4.5%, previous value 4.5%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, organized by Jinshi, several financial institutions have expressed their views on the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting:Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected to remain on hold this month, taking a wait-and-see approach on interest rate cuts, doubting that Powell would want the FOMC to take a more hawkish stance at this stage.Nordea Bank: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and wait for more data and information regarding President Trump's policies, with two rate cuts anticipated in May and September 2025.PIMCO: The Federal Reserve may "keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future," and may even raise borrowing costs, as officials are waiting for clarity on Trump's policies.Goldman Sachs: This meeting is not expected to provide much new information and is unlikely to offer forward guidance for policy action in March, with rate cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in June and September this year.Bank of America: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, as economic data stabilizes, and may raise expectations for the labor market. Powell may retain maximum flexibility for the March policy decision.ING: It is expected that there will be no change in monetary policy. The rapid rise in government bond yields has significantly increased borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, predicting three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.Rabobank: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, anticipating that Powell will take a cautious stance on further rate cuts while avoiding questions about the impact of Trump's policies on the Fed's rate path.JPMorgan Chase: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, without ruling out the possibility of action at the March meeting, focusing on whether and how the Fed will incorporate Trump's policies into its policy deliberations.Farm Credit: It is expected to maintain rates unchanged, with little likelihood of a hawkish surprise, and attention should be paid to how the Fed views the combination of Trump's policies and their impact on inflation and economic growth.EY: Data shows a robust economy, with inflation proving more stubborn than expected. It is expected to pause rate cuts this week to retain more options for further adjustments to the federal funds rate this year.

ChainCatcher message, important macro data overview for next week:January 30, 3:00 AM: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) as of January 29, expected 4.50%, previous 4.50%;January 30, 3:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:15 PM: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of January 30, expected 2.75%, previous 3.00%;January 30, 9:45 PM: ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:30 PM: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 25 (in ten thousand), expected 22, previous 22.3;January 31, 9:30 PM: U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, expected 2.80%, previous 2.80%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live analyst Adam released the market outlook for this week (January 27 to February 2). The upcoming Lunar New Year will lead to a temporary decrease in market influence from Chinese-speaking users. Despite frequent economic policy announcements from Trump during his first week in office, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week remains as high as 98%. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's interest rate decisions on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan's rate hike already implemented and expectations for continued rate cuts in the Eurozone.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above $100,000, and the cooling of the TRUMP meme market has led to a dispersion of market enthusiasm. The options market shows a significant decrease in uncertainty, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) dropping below 55% for the week, and the full-term at-the-money IV falling below 60%. Recently, there has been a large volume of institutional bullish options trades, but after the rate hike was confirmed, institutions began to significantly increase their short positions. The Bitfinex interest rate market is performing steadily, and it is recommended to actively monitor suitable interest rate orders during market fluctuations.In terms of regulation, new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit must improve their KYC processes to operate normally. Important events this week include: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision (22:45), Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (05:30) and European Central Bank deposit facility rate (21:15), as well as Friday's U.S. December core PCE price index (21:30).

ChainCatcher news, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated on the X platform that the main reason for inflation is excessive money supply, believing that stopping money printing in the U.S. could lower interest rates and reactivate economic growth.In response, former Coinbase CTO Balaji mentioned that the power to set interest rates could be completely transferred from the Federal Reserve to the market, and referred to Bitfinex, which has implemented a mechanism overseas to replace centralized decision-making by central banks with a market-driven interest rate order book.

ChainCatcher news, Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lee Hardman stated in a report that the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has increased the likelihood of further appreciation of the dollar in the first half of 2025. It is expected that U.S. interest rates will remain at a high level for a longer period, creating a greater policy divergence with other major central banks. The expectation of widening policy divergence, coupled with the imminent risk of higher tariffs at the beginning of Trump's second term, will continue to put upward pressure on the dollar next year. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, UBS stated that the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move will be guided by economic data. Although major global markets have reacted negatively to changes in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle next year, the Fed will continue to monitor economic conditions and various data before taking any action.UBS said, "We believe that the Federal Reserve still relies on data, and future economic indicators will continue to play a crucial role in determining the Fed's next steps." Key indicators such as the Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE inflation, will play a critical role in shaping central bank policy, with data set to be released this Friday. However, UBS expects inflation to slow in the coming months, which could impact the Fed's policy outlook. Additionally, employment data will remain an important factor as the Fed assesses the strength of the labor market and the overall resilience of the economy. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve concluded its 2024 annual interest rate decision, deciding to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, in line with expectations.In this year's eight decisions, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points, consisting of one 50 basis point cut, two 25 basis point cuts, and five instances of maintaining the rate. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the current market believes there is a 98.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut tonight (3 AM on the 19th), while the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.5%-4.75% is only 1.2%. The Federal Reserve will announce the rate decision and economic projections summary at 3 AM, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Fed Chair Powell at 3:30 AM.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LBBW analyst Elmar Voelker stated in a report that the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week is not as clear-cut as the forward rates suggest."In our view, the recently released U.S. macroeconomic data does not provide a clear template for the upcoming interest rate decision," said the seasoned fixed-income analyst. Voelker noted that from the perspective of bond market participants, "a rate cut in December and a pause in January" is not much different from "a pause in December and a rate cut in January."LSEG data shows that the money market believes there is a 94% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, indicating that despite a cooling job market, the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs. The number of continuing unemployment claims reached its highest level in three years.Since the beginning of this year, labor market data has shown mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as it balances employment and inflation targets.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve FOMC statement: The committee unanimously agreed on this interest rate decision. (Last meeting was 11-1) (Jin Shi)