ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve FOMC statement: The committee unanimously agreed on this interest rate decision. (Last meeting was 11-1) (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, as Trump wins the U.S. election, the market is closely watching the potential impact on tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Analysts from several financial institutions have expressed their views on this:Jefferies: Powell may not explicitly discuss the issue of increased spending after Trump's victory, but he knows in his heart the driving effect it has on the economy.Bank of America: The Federal Reserve may currently overlook the impact of tariffs on inflation, viewing it as a short-term price fluctuation, and focus on the consequences of negative growth.Standard Chartered Bank: The Fed does not want to surprise the market before it digests the election's impact, but the probability of holding steady has increased.Pantheon Macroeconomics: Although the Fed will still cut rates today, the impending arrival of Trump in the White House may weaken the Fed's rate-cutting space.JPMorgan: With the election settled before the Fed meeting, a rate cut still stands, requiring a cautious approach to forward guidance.DBS Bank: The real federal funds rate has risen to 2.6%, so regardless of the U.S. election outcome, the Fed has room to cut rates this week.Nordea Bank: The impact of Trump's policies on inflation will take some time to manifest, and the Fed's dovish stance will take time to eliminate.Swedbank: The Fed will not incorporate Trump's victory into its recent decisions until there is a clear understanding of the new policies and their impacts.Amerivet Securities: Trump's victory will not change the prospect of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed tonight, but the central bank needs to remain vigilant in the future.Natixis: Trump's tax policies may lead to rising inflationary pressures and an expanding fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the Fed's dovish stance.

ChainCatcher news, affected by the U.S. elections and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 03:00 Beijing time on November 8 (Friday). As is customary, the Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and announces the decision results at midnight Beijing time on Thursday. However, this time it coincides with the U.S. election voting, so the Federal Reserve's policy meeting has been postponed by one day.The 2024 U.S. election voting will begin at 13:00 Beijing time on November 5 (Tuesday).

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision will be announced this Friday at 3:00 AM, with approximately 3 days and 10 hours remaining until the next FOMC meeting.According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points in November is 99.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0.2%.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions based on economic data from 2025.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, but it is still undecided whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The latest "dot plot" and economic forecasts will also be released at that time.Before the Federal Reserve's meeting, the CME "FedWatch" tool predicts a 61% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and a 39% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

ChainCatcher message, according to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections next Thursday at 2 PM. Traders are pricing in nearly equal chances of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The shifting bets reflect one of the key issues facing today's market: whether the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut rates to prevent a weakening labor market or take a slower approach to maintain a wait-and-see stance.Federal funds futures pricing shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by more than two percentage points over the next 12 months, a scenario that is rarely seen outside of a recession. James St. Aubin, Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Park Asset Management, which manages $5.3 billion in assets, stated, "With the S&P 500 near historical highs and credit spreads narrowing, it seems that a major rate cut to kick off a rate-cutting cycle would only happen if the Federal Reserve knows something that others do not. I believe that, in terms of market sentiment, a 50 basis point cut could do more harm than good."In any case, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, as long as Powell does not oppose the expectation of cutting rates once or even twice by 50 basis points in the last two meetings of the year, this meeting could still be viewed as a dovish rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, analysts indicate that this month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Bitfinex analysts state: a 25 basis point rate cut may signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could lead to an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but with increasing concerns about economic recession, a subsequent pullback may occur.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on August 1. As of the time of writing, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged in August is 96.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that this week is a macro big week. The Bitcoin conference last week released goodwill from the U.S. political sphere towards crypto. This week's main news returns to the macro market------the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are both worth paying attention to, as although market expectations are relatively consistent, any news that exceeds market expectations could be a bombshell.There are many macro events this week, but market expectations are relatively consistent, so the implied volatility (IV) for major tenors is far below the levels during last week's Bitcoin conference. The cryptocurrency market has formed a wide range of fluctuations since March, with BTC approaching historical highs, while ETH is relatively sluggish, with a significant drop in exchange rates. The IV for major tenors of ETH is only slightly higher than that of BTC. Timing the selection of appropriate IV can allow for the purchase of short-term options, especially short-term BTC call options, which are particularly cost-effective. In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market is relatively quiet, with occasional good interest rate orders; suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed.