ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions based on economic data from 2025.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, but it is still undecided whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The latest "dot plot" and economic forecasts will also be released at that time.Before the Federal Reserve's meeting, the CME "FedWatch" tool predicts a 61% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and a 39% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

ChainCatcher message, according to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections next Thursday at 2 PM. Traders are pricing in nearly equal chances of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. The shifting bets reflect one of the key issues facing today's market: whether the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut rates to prevent a weakening labor market or take a slower approach to maintain a wait-and-see stance.Federal funds futures pricing shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by more than two percentage points over the next 12 months, a scenario that is rarely seen outside of a recession. James St. Aubin, Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Park Asset Management, which manages $5.3 billion in assets, stated, "With the S&P 500 near historical highs and credit spreads narrowing, it seems that a major rate cut to kick off a rate-cutting cycle would only happen if the Federal Reserve knows something that others do not. I believe that, in terms of market sentiment, a 50 basis point cut could do more harm than good."In any case, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points next week, as long as Powell does not oppose the expectation of cutting rates once or even twice by 50 basis points in the last two meetings of the year, this meeting could still be viewed as a dovish rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, analysts indicate that this month's Federal Reserve interest rate decision could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Bitfinex analysts state: a 25 basis point rate cut may signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could lead to an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but with increasing concerns about economic recession, a subsequent pullback may occur.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time on August 1. As of the time of writing, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged in August is 96.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that this week is a macro big week. The Bitcoin conference last week released goodwill from the U.S. political sphere towards crypto. This week's main news returns to the macro market------the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are both worth paying attention to, as although market expectations are relatively consistent, any news that exceeds market expectations could be a bombshell.There are many macro events this week, but market expectations are relatively consistent, so the implied volatility (IV) for major tenors is far below the levels during last week's Bitcoin conference. The cryptocurrency market has formed a wide range of fluctuations since March, with BTC approaching historical highs, while ETH is relatively sluggish, with a significant drop in exchange rates. The IV for major tenors of ETH is only slightly higher than that of BTC. Timing the selection of appropriate IV can allow for the purchase of short-term options, especially short-term BTC call options, which are particularly cost-effective. In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market is relatively quiet, with occasional good interest rate orders; suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed.

ChainCatcher news, according to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 2:00 AM Beijing time (June 13) on Thursday, while a few hours earlier, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest inflation data. Powell's press conference will be held at 2:30. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% set last July.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, IG Group analyst Jeremy Naylo stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a turning point this week, although we expect no changes in rates. Before that, the U.S. statistical department will release the CPI data for May.This likely indicates that the inflation stickiness we have observed will continue. The U.S. core CPI for May is expected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year, but the real concern lies in the service sector. For the past two months, the U.S. service sector CPI has been rising, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in April.Daily FX forex analyst Richard Snow told traders that there is a general expectation that the so-called "super core" inflation, which is service sector inflation minus housing inflation, will at least keep the year-on-year increase of the past two months at 5.3%, which may mean that the Federal Reserve has little room for interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% this week is 98.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0.0%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until December is 74.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 0.0%.The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for the U.S. on November 2 at 2:00 PM.