ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned of a potential economic recession in the U.S., stating that the recession may have already begun. In an interview with CNBC, Fink pointed out that the escalating economic pressures and protectionist trade policies—especially the tariffs from former President Trump's era—are key driving factors behind what he believes is a slow economic contraction. While concerns about a recession typically unsettle traditional markets, cryptocurrency investors may have reason to cheer. The impending economic slowdown could prompt the Federal Reserve to alter its monetary tightening path, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidity. According to analysts, this scenario could become a major catalyst for digital assets like Bitcoin. Fink's comments follow similar predictions from major Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that a weak dollar could boost Bitcoin in the short term and may open the door for BTC to gain traction as an alternative global reserve asset in the long run.

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, Bitcoin rebounded from below $83,000 and briefly broke through $88,000. Shubh Varma, CEO of the crypto research platform Hyblock Capital, pointed out that the slowdown in tapering may enhance liquidity, benefiting cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. However, concerns over the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy have been weighing on the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Some analysts believe that technically, BTC may need to dip to $70,000 before it can restart its upward trend. Additionally, the Federal Reserve observation tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the federal funds futures prices reflect an 89.1% probability of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

ChainCatcher news, CICC's research report states that the U.S. core and total CPI inflation both fell in February, both below market expectations.From a breakdown perspective, oil prices and airfare prices have significantly cooled, reflecting weakened economic demand. Overall, rent remains moderate, and the increase in core commodity prices has slowed. Looking ahead, CICC believes that the slowdown in demand is conducive to curbing inflation, and the real estate and labor markets may not become sources of inflation by 2025. However, tariffs may push up short-term price levels, enhancing the stickiness of inflation. The Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates and will wait for clarity on tariff policies before taking action. CICC maintains its previous judgment that the next rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart indicating that the slowdown in stablecoin inflows is driving the crypto market into a consolidation phase, which may suggest that caution is needed for Bitcoin's future price movements. Data shows that the stablecoin minting metrics are highly correlated with Bitcoin's price trends; if this metric fails to rebound, any upward movement in Bitcoin will be difficult to sustain.Analysts believe that the current slowdown in stablecoin inflows may stem from two factors: stablecoin issuers have already built up sufficient inventory in advance, or overall market demand is declining. Regardless of the specific reason, the current crypto market has not yet seen a large-scale influx of new capital, which is a key factor in Bitcoin's consolidation.Additionally, this trend may be related to the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve meeting in December 2024, which is expected to make institutional investors more cautious.

ChainCatcher news, according to TheBlock, analysts pointed out that last Friday's disappointing U.S. February employment report reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could boost risk appetite and lift the stock market and crypto assets. However, ongoing inflation risks driven by tariffs and supply chain issues still constrain a policy shift. Last week, the U.S. Labor Department's seasonally adjusted data showed that non-farm employment added only 151,000 jobs from January to February, marking the weakest February growth since 2019 and falling short of the 170,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Government layoffs, federal funding cuts, tariff uncertainties, and tightening immigration policies will weigh on job growth in the coming months. These factors may lead to a slowdown in hiring, suppress economic momentum, and reinforce deflationary trends. The Federal Reserve is facing a complex policy environment: weak employment supports rate cuts, but supply-side constraints and inflation concerns from geopolitical risks make it cautious. Uncertainty may continue to suppress the crypto market.Wincent Senior Director Paul Howard stated that the disappointing employment report underscores the necessity of rate cuts to stimulate the economy, and reducing deficit costs may be a government priority, which would benefit risk assets like crypto; CoinPanel trading automation expert Kirill Kretov pointed out that rising unemployment could improve Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity by raising rate cut expectations. Slowing wage growth suggests easing inflation pressures, making it more likely for the Federal Reserve to pivot sooner. The CME FedWatch tool shows that 55.3% of rate traders believe the June FOMC meeting is the earliest point for a rate cut this year, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has downgraded U.S. first-quarter economic growth to a contraction of 2.4%, which, if realized, would mark the first deflation since the first quarter of 2022, intensifying recession fears.Analysts indicate that global economic uncertainty has prompted an increase in bearish positions in the derivatives market, with the risk reversal indicator over the past 24 hours leaning more towards put options, reflecting market concerns about increased selling pressure. Options flow suggests that bullish sentiment may need to wait until the third quarter. Although $80,000 remains a key short-term support level for Bitcoin, the upside potential is limited. Before a new narrative emerges, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market may strengthen. Tariff risks persist, and volatility may increase ahead of the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data this week.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Korea stated that political concerns have led to a slowdown in GDP growth. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart report. The 7-day minting data of stablecoins shows that the pace of fiat currency inflow into the crypto market has significantly slowed down before the Christmas holiday, which may be related to the Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish policy in mid-December.Due to the continued low activity of fiat deposits flowing into stablecoins, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may continue to consolidate. Although the quiet period of the holidays has ended, there has not yet been a significant rebound in the inflow of funds into stablecoins. This indicator remains an important signal of changes in market demand, as an increase in stablecoin minting typically indicates a rise in demand for the cryptocurrency market.Currently, while there has been a slight rebound in stablecoin minting activity, its sustainability remains unclear. Only when this trend continues steadily is it possible to push Bitcoin out of the consolidation phase and back into a bull market.

ChainCatcher news, Pantheon macro analyst Samuel Tombs stated that the Federal Reserve will soon be concerned about "the oversupply of labor and weak wage growth." He noted that the increase in job vacancies in the November JOLTS report was unexpected, but there are signs that employment costs are cooling down. Tombs pointed out that the resignation rate dropped from 2.1% to 1.9%, "indicating a greater slowdown in (employment cost) growth." "Therefore, the average hourly wage has increased by 0.4% for two consecutive months, which seems like noise around a trend that is still slowing down." Tombs expects that the average hourly wage will slow down in the December non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart stating that the performance of stablecoins is one of the important indicators reflecting market trends. Generally, an increase in stablecoin trading volume indicates a bullish market sentiment, while the growth of Tether's market capitalization reflects more fiat money flowing into the cryptocurrency ecosystem.However, when these trends reverse, it often signifies that Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are entering a correction phase. Recently, Tether's market capitalization has declined, and trading volume has also decreased, but asserting that the market has turned bearish at this point may be premature. This change may simply be a seasonal lull due to the Christmas holidays.As the new year begins, we will soon find out whether the market will regain its bullish momentum.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve showed moderate performance in November, marking a step in the right direction for policymakers seeking further interest rate cuts in 2025. This data should help alleviate the concerns of Federal Reserve officials regarding the inflation outlook.Federal Reserve officials released their latest forecasts this week, indicating that prices and interest rates will be higher in 2025. These new forecasts triggered a sell-off in U.S. stocks as investors had already priced in expectations of policy tightening. Details regarding prices show a general slowdown in inflation. Core service prices (a closely watched category excluding housing and energy) rose 0.2% month-on-month, the lowest level since August. Core goods prices (excluding food and energy) declined for the first time in three months.

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. October CPI data released last night fully met market expectations, causing little stir in the market. However, the data performance has increased market confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 58% earlier on Wednesday to around 80%.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks showed volatility on Wednesday, with the three major indices collectively turning negative at the start, then rebounding to rise, but significantly narrowing gains by the end of the day, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.26%, the S&P 500 slightly up 0.02%, and the Dow Jones up 0.11%. The "Tech Seven Sisters" had mixed performances, and most cryptocurrency concept stocks retreated.The cryptocurrency market regained momentum after a brief pullback. Bitcoin broke through the important $90,000 mark last night, reaching a high of $93,265, then retreated after hitting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it was at $89,586. Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, making it the seventh largest asset in the world. Meme coins continue to rise, leading various sectors and becoming the focus of investors' attention.In the forex and commodities sector, after the CPI release, the dollar index initially fell and then rose, reaching a 13-month high since October last year, putting pressure on other currencies, with the offshore yuan falling below 7.25 yuan. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, closing up over 0.45%, lingering at two-week lows. The rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pressured gold prices to decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a near two-month low.The CPI data, which was in line with expectations, increased the probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and helped to some extent alleviate market concerns about inflation prospects following a potential Trump victory. Currently, the market is focused on Thursday's PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, Friday's retail sales data, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, Rohit Sipahimalani, Chief Investment Officer of Singapore's state investment company Temasek International, stated that if Trump returns to the White House, it may not have a positive impact on the global economy and financial markets.Sipahimalani pointed out that the policies of the Trump administration would lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which would ultimately affect American businesses. He also warned that higher interest rates and a stronger dollar would have adverse effects on emerging markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the ADP report shows that U.S. job creation has experienced a broad rebound after five months of slowdown, with only the information sector seeing job losses, while manufacturing has added jobs for the first time since April.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released a report stating, "Despite the strong performance of Bitcoin, it has not yet broken through the key high of $65,200 from August 25. This is very important because if Bitcoin fails to break this level, it will confirm a pattern since the historical high of $73,666 set in March, where Bitcoin has not exceeded any previous highs and has formed new local bottoms, maintaining a downward trend. In other words, from a longer time frame perspective, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since March.Additionally, despite the recent price increase being optimistic, the growth of Bitcoin's open interest has outpaced the increase in Bitcoin's price itself, indicating that last week's movement came more from the futures and perpetual markets rather than the spot market.Meanwhile, we have also seen some altcoins surge, with some well-known tokens rising over 100% since their lows in August and September. However, caution is warranted here, as the open interest in altcoins has also reached new highs, but the overall altcoin market has not seen corresponding price breakthroughs. The OTHERS index (which measures the performance of altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap) has continued to decline over the past month.As buying pressure in the Bitcoin spot market slows down, the incremental volume of spot accumulation has stabilized as prices reached $63,500, and we expect Bitcoin to remain in a range-bound fluctuation in the short term.Nevertheless, an important counterargument is that sustained ETF inflows could boost Bitcoin's price. Last week, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded new inflows, increasing by $397.2 million. This suggests that if traditional financial markets like the S&P 500 continue to rise, Bitcoin still has the potential for further increases. If Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level at the end of August, it could drive its price to new highs, especially with the end of the low liquidity period of summer. However, without sustained spot buying, Bitcoin is most likely to experience consolidation or a partial pullback."

ChainCatcher news, Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran posted on social media that the pace of venture capital investment in cryptocurrency has significantly slowed, with a subtle reason behind it. Most venture capital firms have limited partners (LPs), who are primarily interested in returns that exceed those of index funds. However, in the medium term, simply holding Bitcoin and Ethereum can "easily outperform" index funds in terms of risk-adjusted returns.This allows venture capitalists to take a wait-and-see approach towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, waiting for safer and more profitable opportunities, rather than taking on as much early risk in startups as they would in other industries. This is because there are no assets in other markets that provide holding yields like BTC or ETH.Adam Cochran stated that during the last crypto cycle (2020 to 2024), venture capital firms "seemed very active," hoping to get rich alongside participants by investing in applications that had "already exploded." However, several known narratives (NFTs, AMM forks, DeFi, L2s) have already reached their end, and it is currently unclear what the next steps should be.

ChainCatcher News, President Biden issued a statement on the July non-farm report, stating that since Vice President Harris and I took office, our economy has created nearly 16 million jobs, with an average unemployment rate lower than any administration in the past 50 years, and income growth outpacing inflation. Today's report shows that while inflation has significantly decreased, job growth has slowed further. Business investment remains strong, partly due to the "Investing in America" agenda, which is creating high-paying job opportunities in underserved communities. Prices are still too high. We will continue to lower costs by combating price gouging, capping prescription drug costs, and building more housing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the growth of USDT supply in June has significantly decreased, reflecting a reduction in liquidity in the crypto market.A report from cryptocurrency custodian Copper shows that as of June 24, the month-over-month growth of Tether (USDT) supply was less than 1.5%, significantly lower than the growth rates in April and May (over 5%).Copper's research director Fadi Aboualfa stated, "This indicates that as Bitcoin and Ethereum face downward pressure, the liquidity flowing into the crypto market is decreasing, while altcoins are still lagging far behind, with almost no hope for a significant rebound in the short term."USDT trading volume has dropped from a historical high of $76.72 billion on March 11 to $5.35 billion on June 24. With the market cap of USDT reaching $113 billion, the slowdown in supply growth indicates a decrease in funds flowing into the crypto market.Additionally, the daily outflow from the Bitcoin market has recently increased significantly, with over $540 million flowing out last week. Over the past 30 days, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10%, from $68,000 to $62,000.

ChainCatcher message, IntoTheBlock data shows that due to the slowdown in on-chain activity, total Bitcoin transaction fees have decreased by 64% this week, falling to 19.2 million dollars.