ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that the probability of an economic recession reflected by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has surged to nearly 80%.At the same time, despite potential increased funding pressure, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan's market-based economic recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has been severely impacted in the recent sell-off, currently reflects a recession probability of 79%. Other asset classes are also issuing warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a recession probability of 62%, basic metals indicate a probability of 68%, and the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond corresponds to a probability of 54%. In contrast, the probability of an economic recession reflected by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, while this probability was zero last November.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated, "The market's 20% drop in three days has impacted clients and could trigger a chain reaction. In the long run, this is more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity. There are concerns that the U.S. as a nation is not a stabilizing factor; we are currently undermining stability, and there are worries that actions from the White House could exacerbate inflation more than the market expects. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates four to five times this year is zero, and interest rates may rise."

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 54.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 45.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 66.7%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7%, down from 60.1% before the non-farm payroll report. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 44.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 3.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, before the non-farm payrolls announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May, according to CME's "Fed Watch," is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Nansen's chief research analyst Aurelie Barthere stated that based on Nansen data, the likelihood of cryptocurrency prices hitting bottom from now until June is 70%. Currently, the trading prices of BTC and ETH are 15% and 22% lower than their respective highest prices this year.Given this data, the upcoming discussions will become important market indicators. Once the toughest part of the tariff negotiations is over, clearer opportunities for cryptocurrencies and risk assets to finally hit bottom will be seen.

ChainCatcher message, futures data shows that traders believe the probability of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts at the June meeting is 62.1%, while this probability was 57% before the Federal Reserve made its decision.

ChainCatcher news, Lin Chen, the head of Deribit Asia Pacific business, stated that the current probability of ETH breaking 2500 by the end of April is only 14.56%, while the probability of breaking 2500 by the end of the year is 48.05%.

ChainCatcher message, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 98%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 67.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.

ChainCatcher news, Alec Kersman, Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated that due to the implementation of tariff measures by the United States, the likelihood of the U.S. falling into an economic recession this year has increased, estimating the probability at 35%. This probability is higher than the 15% assessed by Pimco last December.Nevertheless, Pimco's fundamental forecast for the U.S. economy is growth of 1% to 1.5%, although this is a "significant decline" from previous expectations. Kamal Bhatia, President and CEO of Principal Asset Management, stated that such trade policies will promote domestic consumption, helping the U.S. economy grow above expectations. Consumer spending on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Bhatia noted that the increase in domestic spending triggered by tariffs is "highly likely" to drive U.S. GDP to "perform better than expected."

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 8 days left until the next FOMC meeting (interest rate decision to be announced on March 20 at 2 AM Beijing time). The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96%.The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 38.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 60.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to ckpool developer Dr -ck, a miner successfully mined Bitcoin block 887212 (block hash: 000000000000000000006414aea39be567cf1d5ff6cbf2d77254fe7c714b0d81) with only 3.3TH of hash power, using a 480GH Bitaxe miner, at solo.ckpool.org.The miner's address is bc1qaxccz85rx6ywy2xw6ugtm6u37mvew6qqn7lgtd, and theoretically, the probability of discovering a block daily is less than one in a million, typically requiring 3,500 years to find one block.

ChainCatcher news, economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised the risk of an economic recession this year from 30% in early 2025 to 40%.The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts wrote, "Due to extreme policies in the U.S., we believe the risk of the U.S. falling into recession this year is significant."Previous news, Morgan Stanley economists downgraded their economic growth expectations last week and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the United States establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 has risen to 68%. The trading volume for this prediction contract has reached $1,196,543, with a deadline of December 31, 2025.Previous news, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick revealed that President Trump will announce the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan at the first White House cryptocurrency summit this Friday.

ChainCatcher news, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the United States establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 has surged to 62%. This sudden spike occurred after Trump expressed support for establishing a cryptocurrency strategic reserve. The trading volume of this prediction contract has reached $979,994, with a deadline of December 31, 2025.

ChainCatcher news, Trump's recent comments on cryptocurrency reserves have influenced the likelihood of "Establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of Trump's presidency" on Polymarket, which has risen to 22%, with a betting amount of around $7.74 million.Previously, on January 20, the day Trump was sworn in as president, the likelihood of this bet had once risen to 48%.

ChainCatcher news, according to the prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of the Solana ETF being approved in 2025 is currently reported at 85%, and the total trading volume of the prediction contract is $88,177.

ChainCatcher news, according to Lin Chen, the Asia-Pacific business head of Deribit, the current options market data predicts a 23.4% chance that Bitcoin will exceed $90,000 by the end of March; while the possibility of exceeding that price by the end of the year is as high as 56.13%.