SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: December Goldilocks
Last Friday's non-farm payroll report was somewhat lackluster, with a high chance of a rate cut in December. The overall non-farm employment data was slightly above expectations, but last month's weak data (only 12,000) was hardly revised, indicating some signs of weakness in the labor market. However, the slightly higher unemployment rate shows that the job market is gradually cooling down without significant deterioration. In the current positive risk backdrop, this supports the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in December. The market currently estimates an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, while the possibility of another cut in January is about 30%.
Bond volatility has fallen to multi-year lows, with yields declining further. The 2-year yield is close to 4%, and the 10-year yield has returned to 4.15%. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market will see the release of CPI and PPI data, which are the last few important economic data points before the end of the year. As Trump 2.0 policies gradually take shape, the yield curve may steepen again.
In the U.S. stock market, due to favorable data and the dovish performance of the bond market, U.S. stocks are once again approaching historical highs. The technical outlook remains supportive, with the advance-decline line continuing to move upward, and the number of stocks reaching new 52-week highs still exceeding those hitting new lows. The stock market is broadly rising.
Interestingly, risk appetite is so widespread that growth stocks are once again outperforming value stocks, which is relatively rare in the late stages of economic growth. Is this a contrarian signal of the current market overheating, or an early indication that the market may welcome a new round of increases in January? One thing is certain: in the current market, any form of short position faces significant risks…
In the cryptocurrency space, all indicators are looking positive, with BTC once again closing around $100,000, while ETH is expected to break through $4,000. There has been a massive inflow of funds into ETFs, with BTC ETF and ETH ETF seeing an additional $2.7 billion and $800 million, respectively, with positive inflows for ten consecutive days. The inflow from TradFi remains the dominant factor behind spot performance, accumulating about $12 billion since the election. Meanwhile, Blackrock and Microstrategy have quietly become the largest holders of BTC in the market, collectively holding nearly 1 million BTC, permanently altering the market's supply and landscape.
Finally, as market bullish sentiment continues, the funding rates for perpetual contracts remain relatively high, with annualized rates exceeding 20% on major exchanges. The BTC volatility curve also shows a strong bullish skew, although selling strategies remain popular, keeping overall volatility stable.
