QCP Capital: The options market is positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, while factors such as weak altcoins may suppress upward momentum
ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the Ethereum options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, which may be related to the anticipated Pectra upgrade set to launch in early April.Looking back at history, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, with ETH surging before the upgrade and then retreating; while the initial performance of the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 was pessimistic due to supply concerns, ETH rose 30% after selling pressure did not materialize. The current market may be positioning for the Pectra upgrade, with options volatility leaning bullish after March 28, indicating potential upward expectations.However, the weakness in the altcoin market poses a restraining factor, with the LIBRA collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap nearing historical highs. The continued recovery of altcoins relies on substantial progress in real applications and network development, rather than just speculative funding.