ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders now believe the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is 85%, up from 67% before the employment report was released.

ChainCatcher news, according to market news, traders have reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to about 50%.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as traders believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased. Traders have increased their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

ChainCatcher news, Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang expressed his views on X, stating that market participants may have overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and China's stimulus measures on cryptocurrency prices.He pointed out that the Fed's interest rates are just one of the factors affecting global liquidity, and global liquidity itself is only one of the factors influencing cryptocurrency prices. During a period when interest rates are nearing and reaching decades-high levels, Bitcoin surged 4.5 times, indicating almost no correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin. Then expecting a strong negative correlation when interest rates begin to decline seems absurd. Additionally, the positive impact of China's stimulus plan on stocks far outweighs its effect on cryptocurrencies, as Chinese traders have already noticed the migration of funds from cryptocurrencies to A-shares.Kang believes that the market is still evolving, and new projects and capital rotations may lead to price fluctuations. Currently, it is expected that the cryptocurrency market will fluctuate between $50,000 and $72,000 until a substantial catalyst emerges.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest report indicates that the current macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of policies to stimulate the real estate and stock markets, including a 500 billion yuan swap tool aimed at non-bank financial institutions, and these measures have already shown initial results. QCP Capital expects China to further relax policies, coupled with the possibility of the Federal Reserve joining the global rate-cutting cycle, as major central banks (excluding the Bank of Japan) are preparing to inject more liquidity into the market. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds continues to widen, currently reaching 21 basis points, indicating that the market holds an optimistic outlook on economic growth.In addition, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed positive views on artificial intelligence and digital assets, triggering a rise in related cryptocurrencies. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved options trading for BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT), demonstrating that digital assets are gaining increasing recognition and demand as an asset class.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates following Chairman Powell's speech.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, traders have lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Rate traders have reduced their bets on a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's September meeting, now expecting a cut of about 33 basis points, down from yesterday's expectation of 37 basis points.Analyst Chris Anstey noted that it is worth mentioning that the U.S. July CPI inflation rate has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility has been modest. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently up over 4 basis points, indicating that some are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more subdued.

ChainCatcher news, according to the OKG Research analysis from OKChain, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced at 2:00 AM (Beijing time) on Thursday is viewed by the market as the "final warning" for a rate cut. This Federal Reserve policy meeting will have a crucial impact on the liquidity situation of the crypto market in the second half of the year.According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, there is a high level of consensus in the market regarding the expectation of a rate cut on September 18, with a 100% probability of a rate cut. Specifically, the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut is as high as 89.6%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has also risen to 10.1%.Compared to the CME FedWatch data from July 16, recent traders' optimism regarding at least a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September has significantly increased (from a 6.7% possibility to the current 10.1%). This change not only reflects the market's cautious attitude towards the economic outlook but also suggests that global financial markets, including the crypto market, may be entering a new round of liquidity easing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan has changed its Federal Reserve rate cut expectation from November to September.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. May PCE data, traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose after the U.S. data was released, as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.