ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all non-American made cars and warned that if Canada and the EU retaliate together, they will face harsher tariff reprisals. This tough stance has heightened market panic, overshadowing better-than-expected GDP data and escalating trade war concerns. U.S. stocks fell for the second consecutive day, with the S&P 500 down 0.33%, the Dow down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq down 0.53%.The cryptocurrency market generally declined, with Bitcoin dropping below $86,000 due to the weak opening of U.S. stocks, but later narrowed its losses as U.S. stocks rebounded, closing at $87,216, down 0.4% in 24 hours. Other major tokens also saw slight declines, with Ethereum fluctuating around $2,000. Overall market sentiment is low, and until Trump's tariff actions become clearer, the short-term upward potential of the market may still be limited.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated down 0.25%; a significant decline in U.S. inventories supported rising oil prices, but tariff policies dampened demand expectations, leading to a weakening of the oil price rally; heightened risk aversion pushed spot gold up 1.23%, breaking through $3,060, reaching a historic high.The market is focused on the PCE inflation data for February, which will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects the year-on-year PCE inflation to be around 2.5%, with core PCE possibly rising to 2.7%. If the data remains strong, it may delay the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Additionally, as April 2 approaches, the final determination of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy is also under close scrutiny.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, futures contract traders continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts in June, as data shows that January inflation rose as expected.They still believe that the likelihood of a second rate cut in September is greater than that of no rate cut. Data shows that the year-on-year Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index fell from 2.6% in December to 2.5% last month, while the core PCE index decreased to 2.6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Theblock, Bitcoin has experienced a turbulent week, dropping 21% from its historical high of $110,000. 21Shares cryptocurrency research strategist Matt Mena believes that some positive catalysts may emerge in the future. He pointed out that Nvidia's strong earnings report released on Wednesday and potential signs of further inflation cooling in Friday's core PCE data are key events that could drive Bitcoin prices higher.Matt Mena stated, "Positive regulatory tailwinds, combined with Nvidia's strong earnings (which indicate sustained demand driven by artificial intelligence and boost overall risk sentiment), along with positive growth in this Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, could create a perfect macro environment for Bitcoin, allowing it not only to recover previous highs but also potentially break through $150,000 as institutional and retail confidence surges."Matt Mena also emphasized that regulatory clarity could change the game for Bitcoin, especially in attracting institutional capital. He added, "If the U.S. provides clear guidance on stablecoins and broader digital asset regulation, we could see a significant influx of institutional funds into the space."

ChainCatcher news, next week, several important Federal Reserve officials will give speeches, as follows:Tuesday 17:20, 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan will speak;Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak;Thursday, 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas Fed President Schmidt will speak on economic issues;Friday 02:15, 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak on financial stability;Friday 04:15, 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on economic outlook.In addition, significant U.S. macroeconomic data such as PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) will also be released next week, as follows:Tuesday 23:00, U.S. February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index;Wednesday after U.S. stock market close, Nvidia will release its earnings report;Thursday 21:30, U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, Q4 GDP price index revision, January durable goods orders month-on-month, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22;Friday 21:30, U.S. January PCE data, January personal spending month-on-month.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's latest report, Bitcoin's price has fallen below $93,000, leading to over $430 million in long positions being liquidated. This drop occurred after the spot Bitcoin ETF ended five consecutive days of net inflows, recording $438 million in outflows on Monday, while MicroStrategy's stock price fell by 4.4%.Previously, MicroStrategy made a record purchase of $5.4 billion worth of Bitcoin last week. With the U.S. holiday approaching and a lack of catalysts to drive prices up in the short term, Bitcoin's momentum towards $100,000 has temporarily stalled.Ethereum's implied volatility is significantly skewed towards put options, reflecting a market sentiment similar to that of Bitcoin. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on tonight's Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Wednesday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ChainCatcher news, Wilmington Trust's bond portfolio manager Wil Stith stated that if the inflation data released on Thursday is stronger than expected, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday is hotter than anticipated, "I think they can discuss pausing the rate cuts because they have already cut rates by 50 basis points before." LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach also believes that strong job growth could persuade the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in November. However, other observers of the Federal Reserve indicate that the upcoming data on Thursday and Friday is unlikely to change the Fed's rate cut trajectory.Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "No matter what the data says, the Fed is already on a path to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and it is unlikely that the central bank will change this trajectory." Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated, "There is no reason to believe that the Fed won't cut rates by another 25 basis points in November, unless there is a significant surprise in the employment report."Currently, many traders agree with this assessment. As of last Friday, investors expected a greater than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points at the November meeting.

ChainCatcher news, data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core PCE in August was below market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The cooling inflation has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in November rising from 49.3% to 54.1%.According to 4E observations, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% last week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.62%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.95%, marking the third consecutive week of gains for all three major indices. Bitcoin rose nearly 4% last week, marking three weeks of consecutive gains, heading towards the best September on record. Under the expectation of continued interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index fell for four consecutive weeks, erasing all gains since mid-July. Spot gold hit a historical high last week, rising 1.38% due to interest rate cuts by major central banks such as the U.S. and China, coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with a nearly 30% increase this year, surpassing the S&P 500 index's 20% gain.With inflation falling in Europe and the U.S., and the pace of global central bank rate cuts accelerating, this will provide strong momentum for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. U.S. non-farm payroll data for September will be released this Friday; if it shows strong performance, it will further boost expectations for a 50 basis point cut in November. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 45.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 54.1% (before the PCE data release, these were 50.1% and 49.9% respectively). The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 24.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.2%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 25.8% (before the PCE data release, these were 26.0%, 50.0%, and 24.0% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, before the release of PCE data, the CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 50.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 49.9%.By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 26.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.0%.

ChainCatcher news, the United States will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data today at 20:30 Beijing time.Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target by 50 basis points, indicating greater confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target level. There is widespread expectation that the PCE data will provide additional support for this stance. Economists unanimously believe that the month-on-month growth rate of core PCE in August will be close to 0.2%, consistent with the price increases in June and July.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 40.8%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 8.1%.

ChainCatcher message, analysts have indicated that after the latest economic data strengthened expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury yields remained almost unchanged, and the market is poised for its longest consecutive rise since 2021. The PCE index, favored by the Federal Reserve as a measure of potential U.S. inflation, rose moderately in July, while household spending remained robust.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to lower its key policy interest rate. He affirmed expectations that Fed officials will begin to reduce borrowing costs next month and clearly indicated his intention to prevent further cooling of the labor market. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, eToro analyst Bret Kenwell stated that the U.S. June PCE report largely met economists' expectations, with the core PCE index year-on-year increase slightly above expectations. Nevertheless, there were no signs in the report indicating that inflation would unexpectedly accelerate. Coupled with the earlier-than-expected CPI report this month and the recent trend of lower inflation data, this should give the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates later this quarter.In next week's Federal Reserve meeting, all eyes will be on Powell, as people hope and expect him to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has been very transparent, announcing its actions well in advance, which has increased certainty, and the market likes certainty.

ChainCatcher news, consulting firm BRN digital asset analyst Valentin Fournier stated that the upcoming PCE data could be the final nail in the coffin for high interest rates and prompt the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts; additionally, if rumors about the establishment of a BTC strategic reserve prove true, Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference could trigger a stronger rebound, and these factors may drive Bitcoin prices to new highs.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. May PCE data, traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose after the U.S. data was released, as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.