Powell

Trump has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and sources say he may attempt to fire Powell

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision, President Trump has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. As concerns about Trump's trade agenda deepen, Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure. In turn, the Federal Reserve is preparing for the price shocks that Trump's tariffs may trigger, which will delay any rate cuts even if the economy weakens.So far, Trump's anger towards the Federal Reserve has been relatively mild. Although he has been criticizing the Federal Reserve since it paused rate cuts last Thursday, he has not issued any direct threats.Trump has taken aggressive measures to strengthen his control over the government and reshape it according to his political will. A source close to the White House indicated that Trump may attempt to fire Powell. The source said, "I don't think Powell will leave voluntarily; Trump may try to fire him, but I also believe Powell is secure enough and impressive enough that he won't leave voluntarily."When asked whether the government believes it has the authority to fire Federal Reserve officials (after firing two Federal Trade Commission commissioners) and whether Trump still plans to let Powell complete his term, the White House stated that there was no new statement.

Fed's Interest Rate Outlook: Powell Can Only Provide Limited Reassurance to the Market, Main Threat Comes from the White House

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell faces a tricky task this week, needing to assure investors that the economic fundamentals remain solid while also conveying that policymakers are ready to intervene if necessary during Thursday's interest rate decision. As Powell praises the resilience of the U.S. economy, it coincides with Trump rapidly escalating the trade war, causing unease and leading to a significant decline in U.S. stocks over the past month. With growing concerns about the economic outlook, consumer confidence is declining, and bond yields are also falling. Dominic Konstam, head of U.S. macro strategy at Mizuho Securities, stated, "Powell needs to send some signal that they are paying attention to the stock market. Officials cannot ignore the recent declines."Economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year. Some investors warn that if officials continue to signal only two rate cuts by 2025, it becomes even more necessary for the Fed chairman to emphasize that the Fed is willing to adjust borrowing costs if there are issues in the labor market. James Ace, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, said, "The Fed may marginally improve or worsen the situation. But clearly, they cannot fully reassure the market, as the blow to market sentiment mainly comes from the White House." Aside from issuing escalating and changing tariff threats to trading partners, the Trump administration has not taken many measures to mitigate the risk of economic recession.

Important macro data next week: Non-farm payrolls, Powell, and Trump vying for attention, with increased bets on Fed rate cuts

ChainCatcher news: After the U.S. inflation data met expectations on Friday, the dollar held near a two-week high, and the argument between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded their strongest start to a year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which approached 4.8% in January, now close to 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% during the day for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks nearly erased their gains for 2025 but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing the losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:Monday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI finalMonday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. January Construction Spending MoMTuesday 21:50: 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaksWednesday 3:20: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks at Bloomberg Investment ForumWednesday 21:15: U.S. February ADP Employment ChangeWednesday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Services PMI finalThursday 1:00: Federal Reserve releases Beige BookThursday 20:30: U.S. February Challenger Job CutsThursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 1Friday 21:30: U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings YoY and MoMFriday 23:45: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participate in a panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business organized U.S. Monetary Policy ForumU.S. February nonfarm payroll data will be released on Friday, which could be a key indicator affecting the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Federal Reserve officials will receive before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep rates steady in this year's second consecutive meeting.
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