ChainCatcher news, this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-anticipated "pivot" by the market. The central bank's statement and update on economic forecasts this week had a significant impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, and on Friday during the European session, Bitcoin continued its downward trend, approaching $95,000 at one point. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin.Additionally, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day streak of inflows this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector is experiencing a widespread decline, with nearly half of the sectors dropping over 10%. Specifically, BTC and ETH fell by 5.14% and 6.11% respectively in the last 24 hours. The CeFi sector dropped by 5.17%, while the NFT sector, which rose over 20% yesterday, fell by 6.01%.In addition, the Layer 1 sector declined by 8.14%, the Layer 2 sector by 9.37%, the DeFi sector by 10.55%, the Meme sector by 11.33%, and the DePIN and PayFi sectors dropped by 11.48% and 11.69% respectively.Despite the overall market decline, some projects performed well, such as the NFT sector Pudgy Penguins (Pengu) which rose by 9.54%, Moca Coin (MOCA) which increased by 10.25%, and AI Agents' AI Rig Complex (ARC) which surged by 54.22%.SoSoValue analysts suggest that the widespread decline in the cryptocurrency market may be influenced by today's Federal Reserve meeting, which adjusted the pace of interest rate cuts for next year (from 4 times to 2 times), the upward revision of future core PCE inflation rates and GDP growth, as well as Powell's more hawkish statements than the market expected, leading to panic regarding liquidity expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that this Thursday, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their interest rate decisions. The market unanimously expects a 25% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan has a 20% chance of raising rates this week, which is of greater concern to the market. The recent severe depreciation of the yen has put significant pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates. As the main target in the foreign exchange arbitrage market, a rate hike will inevitably bring liquidity pressure to the market.It is highly likely that all decisions will be favorable for the macro market, and there is hope for a surge to $110,000 this week. The main players in the options market are also increasing their positions in options for the end of the year, targeting $110,000 to $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin recently faced $1.5 billion in long liquidations, with the price plummeting by 3,000 points before rebounding at the critical support level of $95,000, currently consolidating in the $97,000-$98,000 range. This round of correction has also affected many altcoins.In terms of institutional entry, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for 8 and 11 consecutive days, respectively. Mining company Riot Platforms announced it would follow MicroStrategy's strategy, planning to issue $500 million in zero-coupon convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin, a plan that has already garnered strong market demand. Notably, Microsoft shareholders will vote today on incorporating Bitcoin into the balance sheet. Although the board recommends against it, approval could lead to an unexpected surge. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Amazon shareholders are also pushing for Bitcoin to be used as a reserve asset.QCP points out that with the political situation stabilizing in France and South Korea, and China's commitment to launching economic stimulus policies, macro market volatility has eased. Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term volatility remains high and leans towards put options. Analysts believe that a breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin still requires key catalysts.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that established cryptocurrencies have experienced a significant upward trend in the past two weeks since 2021. XRP has broken through its historical high of $2 in February 2021, surging 400% to $2.90 since November. During the same period, veteran projects like ADA, HBAR, and XLM recorded increases of 300%, 800%, and 600% respectively, showcasing the strong momentum of traditional crypto assets.This round of increase is mainly driven by two factors: first, Trump's proposal in November to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies issued by U.S. companies; second, potential pro-crypto cabinet nominees. It is reported that current Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick may take over as Secretary of Commerce, as his company is currently in negotiations with Tether. Meanwhile, the SEC chair position may be taken over by pro-crypto Paul Atkins, replacing current chair Gary Gensler.Although South Korea's implementation of martial law temporarily caused Bitcoin to drop to $93,500, the subsequent rapid rebound in the market indicates strong buying power. The report notes that while inflation concerns have compressed the expectation for three Fed rate cuts by 2025, and geopolitical risks from Trump regarding China, Mexico, Canada, and BRICS countries still exist, the cryptocurrency market is still expected to continue its upward trend.Analysts believe that with the potential launch of crypto-friendly policies by Trump's team and the continued entry of institutional investors, the goal of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and Ethereum reaching new historical highs is shifting from a dream to reality. Investors are advised to pay attention to the strong market momentum and seize investment opportunities.

ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown stated that a Trump victory could shift market focus to re-inflation, anticipated tax cuts, and potential tariff issues. The initial market reaction may include a stronger dollar and a decline in government bonds. Expectations for reduced regulatory burdens could boost the stock market, particularly in energy and defense sectors.He noted that a Harris victory might lead to a weaker dollar, as hedging operations related to Trump are unwound, allowing the trade-sensitive foreign exchange market to "breathe a sigh of relief." Expectations for more expansionary fiscal policies could put pressure on government bonds, while concerns over stricter regulations might weigh on the stock market. However, any decline could be quickly bought on dips, with clean energy and tech stocks potentially performing better. This largely depends on the composition of Congress. For those wondering whether this election will change the long-term macro or market outlook, Brown's answer is "absolutely not." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Dean Skurka, President and CEO of digital financial services company WonderFi, believes that the interest rate cuts in Canada and the United States, along with the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, will continue to drive Bitcoin prices higher in the next 6-24 months.In an interview with Cointelegraph, Skurka explained that the recent decision by the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates by 50 basis points, along with the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cut plan starting in September 2024, will encourage retail and institutional investors to enter the market or increase their existing positions.Skurka also emphasized that the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is a major catalyst for Bitcoin prices, as the cryptocurrency industry believes that a Trump presidency would be beneficial for cryptocurrencies, while a Harris victory could cause a price shock in the short term.

ChainCatcher news, ARK Investment Management believes that technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, could play a key role in revitalizing the global economy.As inflation shifts to deflation in multiple sectors, ARK Invest believes that robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and multi-OMIC (biological analysis) sequencing may have a significant impact on macroeconomic indicators in the next five to ten years. Catherine Wood stated that interest rates may be lower than expected, which could amplify the gains of certain stocks and enhance the demand for diversified artificial intelligence investments.

ChainCatcher message, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han stated, "Despite the lackluster price movement of Bitcoin this week, market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by the stable perpetual contract funding rates and open interest over the past week." Coinbase analysts pointed out that the macro factors influencing cryptocurrency performance are shifting from monetary policy to the results of the U.S. elections. Despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain broadly stable.

ChainCatcher message, according to a report released by Binance Research, in September 2024, driven by the positive development of the global economy, the cryptocurrency market grew by 8%. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 4.75%-5%, improving investor sentiment. Additionally, the People's Bank of China injected 1 trillion yuan into the banking system to address deflationary pressures and boost consumer confidence. These measures supported the rise of the U.S. and Chinese stock markets, which in turn propelled the cryptocurrency market's increase in October.On September 27, in response to deflationary pressures and a sluggish real estate market, the People's Bank of China lowered the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 20 basis points and reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. This move injected 1 trillion yuan (approximately 142.5 billion USD) into the banking system to boost consumer confidence. A favorable macroeconomic environment stimulated the rise of major stock markets in the U.S. and China, further supporting the increase of the cryptocurrency market in October. However, it remains crucial to closely monitor future economic reports and central bank actions.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have pointed out several key factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, mentioning technologies, geopolitical issues, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the upcoming Ethereum upgrade known as Pectra.One key conclusion of the report is that October has historically shown strong performance, often referred to as "Uptober," with over 70% of Octobers yielding positive returns for Bitcoin. The analysts wrote, "Although past performance is not indicative of future results, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' could influence behavior and lead to positive Bitcoin performance this October." Despite the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has yet to see the anticipated positive effects; while a rate-cutting environment typically supports risk assets, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46. Since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant rise in cryptocurrency prices due to the cuts, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift.Additionally, the analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. The analysts expect this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, referred to as "Pectra," is also seen as a significant development.The analysts stated, "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption rates, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices."The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. They stated, "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive the ecosystem's development and enhance retail participation for long-term growth."