Analysis: The release of U.S. CPI data will not lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin volatility

ChainCatcher news, tomorrow's U.S. inflation report will be the focus, and investors will look for signals on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. A recent series of unexpected events has weakened rate cut expectations. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options indicates that traders expect its volatility to not rise significantly after the report is released.

Institutional liquidity provider OrBit Markets stated, "The market's pricing premium for this event is almost negligible," noting that the price volatility of Bitcoin after the CPI report is published may be less than 2%, with almost no additional volatility, while the S&P 500 index options pricing reflects relatively high volatility.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis aligns with OrBit's: "The implied volatility of options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means traders expect volatility to rise moderately after the CPI is released. However, the realized (historical) volatility remains below 50%, indicating that expectations for significant upward or downward movements are not reflected in the prices."