ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the MOVE index (Merrill Option Volatility Expectation) for U.S. Treasury market volatility has continued to rise since hitting a low of 82 points in mid-December, reaching 102.78 points on January 8. As the world's second-largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often signals a tightening financial environment, which may trigger risk aversion across various financial markets.Latest data shows that manufacturing performance has exceeded expectations, suggesting strong economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board. Among them, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (the highest since November 23), while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.68% (the highest level since May).Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE index had significantly dropped, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken when the MOVE index hit its low in mid-December. On January 8, Bitcoin fell 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is currently dominating broader market trends, making it difficult for risk assets to regain upward momentum before the Treasury market stabilizes.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart report, indicating that fluctuations in global liquidity may put some pressure on Bitcoin. Historical data shows that changes in liquidity typically lead Bitcoin price movements by about 13 weeks. With the strengthening of the dollar following Trump's re-election, global liquidity measured in yuan is beginning to tighten, suggesting that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase in the near term.However, this consolidation is expected to be a temporary phenomenon. Overall, risk assets (especially Bitcoin) still demonstrate positive long-term potential. Nevertheless, in a weaker liquidity environment, traders should exercise greater caution, as these indicators have historically proven to be reliable market barometers.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the market in January 2025 will face multiple risks and opportunities against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration and the release of non-farm data. Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, pointed out that the period from November to January is usually a strong performance time for the market. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index performs well during the last five trading days of December and early January, known as the "Santa Claus rally." The upcoming employment data and corporate earnings reports will provide key insights into the economic health of the market.Helen Given, Deputy Head of Trading at Monex USA, emphasized that the inauguration of a new government is often accompanied by high uncertainty. The trade policies of the Trump administration could have a significant impact on the global currency market, and the actual effects of policy implementation remain to be seen. Given believes that investors need to pay attention to the actual implementation of proposed policies, which may affect currencies such as the euro, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar.Damon Polistina, Head of Research at Eaglebrook Advisors, mentioned that a pro-crypto Trump administration could bring positive catalysts to the crypto market. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts may support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and any positive economic data will further drive market momentum.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the Federal Reserve's hawkish FOMC meeting has triggered a comprehensive sell-off of risk assets, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.56%, the S&P 500 down 2.95%, and Bitcoin falling by 6.13%. Although the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the downward adjustment of the dot plot has caused panic. Due to persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates only twice by 2025, which is below the market's general expectation of three times.QCP Capital believes that while it is easy to attribute this round of sell-off to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the fundamental reason for the market crash lies in the previously overly optimistic market sentiment. Since the U.S. elections, risk assets have experienced a one-sided upward trend, making the market extremely sensitive to any negative news.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. While lower rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, comments and economic forecasts from the Fed during Wednesday's meeting may dampen expectations for further rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns.Recent U.S. CPI and PPI data have raised worries about potential price pressures next year, especially considering speculation around the economic policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Furthermore, although macroeconomic events still hold influence, QCP Capital analysts believe that Bitcoin's recent rise is primarily driven by market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, the Governor of the Bank of France, Villeroy, stated that Bitcoin is still a high-risk asset.

ChainCatcher news, Abra's head of over-the-counter options trading Bohan Jiang stated that the worst-case scenario for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, is "a delay or controversy in the results of the U.S. election, similar to the 2000 election, where the results were unknown for weeks. This would lead to a sell-off of risk assets during that period, and the event volatility would extend into the following weeks until we have a definitive result."

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, on Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indices fell, influenced by weak stock prices of Apple and Nvidia. Investors sold off technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks, dragging the Nasdaq down by 1.60%, leading the decline, while the Dow and S&P both fell about 1% and have declined for three consecutive days. The cryptocurrency market followed the general downturn of U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin briefly approaching $65,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is at $67,300, up 0.36%, while Ethereum is at $2,550, down 2.43%.In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, as the election approaches, investors are weighing the possibility of a significant victory for Trump, which is considered the most favorable outcome for the dollar. The dollar index rose over 0.3% to near a three-month high, with the yen, euro, and pound all declining. Spot gold approached $2,760 during the session, setting a historical high for five consecutive days. Subsequently, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, putting pressure on precious metals, turning gains into losses. Spot gold fell 1.2% at the close, while spot silver briefly dropped 4%, departing from its twelve-year high. Last week, the EIA crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, putting pressure on oil prices, with U.S. oil falling over 1.3%, ending a two-day rise.The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on Wednesday showed little change in U.S. economic activity, with an increase in hiring by businesses and continued easing of inflationary pressures. With a series of strong economic data released recently, expectations for Fed rate cuts have weakened, coupled with "Trumpflation" prompting the market to reconsider rate cut expectations, especially for next year, leading to a sustained rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which pressured risk assets. The stock market, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodity gold, and foreign exchange. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher message, Fed's Schmid stated that his personal view is that cryptocurrency is a risk asset, a playground, rather than a currency.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market continued to decline today, with the China A50 index dropping another 7%, down 17% from recent highs. The lack of fiscal stimulus has severely impacted investor sentiment. However, the U.S. stock market has not been affected by developments in Asia. Despite uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and the exclusion of interest rate cuts in 2024 following the non-farm payroll report, the U.S. stock market continues to rise to new highs. The bond market currently expects two rate cuts in 2024, down from three just a week ago.Despite the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the U.S. elections, the U.S. stock market continues to steadily climb, reaffirming the view that risk assets are poised for a rebound. In the cryptocurrency market, the Meme coin sector has surged with increased on-chain and off-chain trading activity. Traders are heavily speculating and leveraging the latest popular Meme coins, leading to some bubbles in the market.In the past two weeks, the perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Deribit and Binance have also risen, indicating that short positions are decreasing or long positions are increasing. This, along with the bubble in the Meme coin market, keeps it vigilant for potential downturns, as such situations often occur when the market is bullish and investors are least guarded. Even in the face of short-term uncertainties and declines, we still plan to continue accumulating, with a bullish mid-term outlook.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, FalconX research director David Lawant stated that the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and broader risk asset indices has been rising and may remain high for some time. The current lower interest rate cycle combined with a soft landing is the baseline for most investors and will create a new macro environment for cryptocurrencies. Favorable election outcomes and a liquidity environment more conducive to risk assets may trigger the next cryptocurrency bull market.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock has released a report titled "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier," which states that most of the risks and potential return drivers faced by Bitcoin differ from those of traditional "risk" assets, making it unsuitable for most traditional financial frameworks— including the "risk-on" and "risk-off" frameworks adopted by some macro commentators.Bitcoin's nature as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset leads some investors to view it as a safe haven during times of fear and certain geopolitical disruptive events. The long-term adoption trajectory of Bitcoin is driven by strong concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This contrasts with the typical relationship attributed to traditional "risk assets" and such forces.Bitcoin's long-term performance shows low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it attractive for diversification. Although in the short term, Bitcoin's price movements occasionally align with traditional risk assets, these are considered temporary phenomena. The report concludes by reiterating that Bitcoin's unique characteristics may make it a hedge against risks that traditional assets cannot address, especially in times of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, 10x Research believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on September 18, the originally bullish liquidity easing cycle may have adverse effects on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.It is reported that a 50 basis point adjustment typically indicates an urgency to control inflation and triggers a risk-averse sentiment in financial markets. A 50 basis point rate cut next week may signal heightened concerns about the economy or a feeling of lagging in addressing the impending economic slowdown, leading investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated: "While a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve may indicate greater market concerns, the Fed's primary focus will be on mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, economist Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University stated that the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday, which could lead to a "sell-the-news" event for risk assets.Steve Hanke said, "The market has anticipated a 25 basis point cut, which means the actual cut could be disappointing, leading to a 'sell-the-news' reaction. In contrast, a 50 basis point cut has not been factored in. If it does happen, it could drive the market up."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, economist Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University stated that the market has priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday, which could lead to a "sell-the-news" event for risk assets.Steve Hanke said, "The market has anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut, which means the actual cut could be disappointing, leading to a 'sell-the-news' reaction. In contrast, a 50 basis point cut has not been factored in. If it does happen, it could drive the market up."

ChainCatcher news, FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the weakness in Bitcoin may signal warnings for traditional risk assets. He said: "The weakness in cryptocurrencies may reflect a very limited risk appetite, and the rest of the market may soon follow the cryptocurrency's lead. Bitcoin has fallen for the 9th consecutive day in the past 11 days as it attempts to consolidate above the 200-day moving average, triggering strong sell-offs. This pattern has persisted until Thursday morning, as prices continue to test the lows of the past four months, and Bitcoin may struggle to gain lasting strength from the recent weakness of the dollar index."

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payrolls overnight highlighted the weakness in the labor market, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, triggering a wave of selling.However, the minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that some policymakers were willing to cut rates, which released a more dovish stance aimed at balancing inflation and employment goals, thereby alleviating these concerns. This dovish tone boosted risk assets, pushing Bitcoin prices above $61,800, with strong buying on Coinbase continuing until 4 AM Singapore time. Aggressive buy orders on Coinbase (indicating domestic demand in the U.S.) are a good signal for the short-term trend.Now, the market's focus shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole, with expectations of gaining more signals regarding interest rate cuts. Given that the market is generally betting on rate cuts, unexpected economic data could have a significant impact on the market.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin has risen by 4% since yesterday, consistent with its bullish outlook. Bitcoin made a decisive upward move, breaking through the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential for further upside.With the support of an increase of $1 billion in open interest, Bitcoin's funding rate has returned to a premium. Considering these dynamics, a straightforward strategy is to go long on Bitcoin while shorting Ethereum, as Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with its share of open positions increasingly deviating in favor of Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were as expected, with a strong focus on the employment aspect of its dual mandate.According to current economic data forecasts, the inflation target seems within reach. "The vast majority" of FOMC members support a rate cut in September, with several members even considering a rate cut in July as a viable option. This makes a rate cut in September almost inevitable. Powell's upcoming speech on Friday is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, potentially boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, as monetary policy provides a favorable backdrop. The Federal Reserve's focus in decision-making is shifting towards employment, making inflation data less significant, especially with CPI trending towards 2.5% in the coming months. Multiple rate cuts may be needed to sustain the current economic expansion.

ChainCatcher message, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic stated on X: "After the release of yesterday's CPI and retail sales data, the Dollar Index (DXY) was severely impacted. According to the EW-count, this looks like the 'right shoulder' of a major head and shoulders pattern. More downside potential will fuel the rebound of risk assets BTC and SP500 until the end of summer."