Chinese stock market

QCP Capital: Risk assets are about to rebound, and the medium-term outlook remains bullish

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market continued to decline today, with the China A50 index dropping another 7%, down 17% from recent highs. The lack of fiscal stimulus has severely impacted investor sentiment. However, the U.S. stock market has not been affected by developments in Asia. Despite uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and the exclusion of interest rate cuts in 2024 following the non-farm payroll report, the U.S. stock market continues to rise to new highs. The bond market currently expects two rate cuts in 2024, down from three just a week ago.Despite the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the U.S. elections, the U.S. stock market continues to steadily climb, reaffirming the view that risk assets are poised for a rebound. In the cryptocurrency market, the Meme coin sector has surged with increased on-chain and off-chain trading activity. Traders are heavily speculating and leveraging the latest popular Meme coins, leading to some bubbles in the market.In the past two weeks, the perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Deribit and Binance have also risen, indicating that short positions are decreasing or long positions are increasing. This, along with the bubble in the Meme coin market, keeps it vigilant for potential downturns, as such situations often occur when the market is bullish and investors are least guarded. Even in the face of short-term uncertainties and declines, we still plan to continue accumulating, with a bullish mid-term outlook.

QCP Capital: The Chinese stock market has retreated, and cryptocurrencies may become a new destination for funds

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the Chinese stock market has shown weak rebound after the long holiday, and the government report failed to introduce new economic stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index recorded its largest decline in a month. The US stock market also fell overnight, mainly affected by large tech stocks and geopolitical tensions, with the VIX index rising to 22 points.The cryptocurrency market's volatility remains stable, with recent implied volatility at 43%, which is 3 percentage points lower than the 7-day historical actual volatility. Previously, Bloomberg reported that since the end of September, Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases, while Bitcoin prices remained stable. As the rebound in the Chinese stock market weakens, it is expected that funds may be reallocated to the cryptocurrency market, reflecting the increasing maturity of the crypto industry as another risk asset.QCP believes that due to the upcoming earnings season and CPI data release, the stock market may face downward risks in the short term, which could challenge its high valuation. Geopolitical tensions further increase market uncertainty. QCP remains mid-term optimistic, expecting election-related news to continue to drive the cryptocurrency market.

Analysis: A-shares are siphoning funds from the cryptocurrency market, but the upward momentum is hard to sustain

ChainCatcher news, recently, the Chinese stock market has rebounded under the impetus of government stimulus policies, but this rise may be siphoning off funds from the crypto market, affecting the rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Since September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by more than 20%, reaching a new high since May 2023. However, the price of Bitcoin has remained around $64,000 after China's stimulus policies, maintaining a consolidation period of $50,000 to $70,000 for six months.Market observers point out that despite the Chinese government launching an economic stimulus plan exceeding 7.5 trillion yuan, which is widely seen as a super positive news for Bitcoin and other risk assets, the price of Bitcoin has not seen a significant increase. Danny Chong, co-founder of the Singapore Digital Asset Association, stated that this capital shift may be temporary, and once the upward trend in the Chinese stock market stabilizes, funds are expected to flow back into the crypto market.Traditional market analysts believe that China's latest stimulus measures have not addressed fundamental economic issues and may not lead to a long-term rise in the stock market. TS Lombard noted in a report on October 2 that unless some fundamental issues, such as fixing the banks' balance sheets, are resolved, any attempts to increase lending and leverage risk-taking may fail. BCA Research also stated that the rise in the Chinese stock market may not be sustainable.
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