Government bonds

Bernstein: Possible sources of funding for crypto reserves include revaluing and reallocating gold reserves, issuing government bonds, etc

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein pointed out that President Trump's statements regarding cryptocurrency reserves have evolved from "Bitcoin as a national reserve" during the campaign to "national digital asset reserves," and recently to "cryptocurrency strategic reserves." Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a client report released on Monday: "It is currently unclear whether a strategic reserve can be created solely through a presidential executive order. If it involves the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, specific legislation would be required from Congress."While there are views that the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund could be used to purchase cryptocurrencies without the need for immediate congressional approval, the fund's primary responsibilities are managing foreign exchange and maintaining financial stability, and using it for crypto reserves may face legal and political challenges. If crypto reserves are approved by Congress, Bernstein analysts proposed several potential sources of funding, including re-evaluating and reallocating gold reserves, issuing government bonds, reallocating Federal Reserve balance sheet funds, or collaborating with U.S. institutional asset managers.Regarding asset allocation methods, analysts suggested a market-cap weighted distribution: 75% allocated to Bitcoin, 11% to Ethereum, 4% to Solana, and the remaining 10% to other assets. Bernstein analysts believe: "A realistic path may be for the U.S. government to persuade Congress to accept Bitcoin as a new form of digital gold/global store of value and to conduct a gold re-evaluation/gold reserve reallocation."

Analysis: The volatility index of the U.S. Treasury bond market has rebounded from a low, while risk assets such as Bitcoin may continue to face pressure

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the MOVE index (Merrill Option Volatility Expectation) for U.S. Treasury market volatility has continued to rise since hitting a low of 82 points in mid-December, reaching 102.78 points on January 8. As the world's second-largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often signals a tightening financial environment, which may trigger risk aversion across various financial markets.Latest data shows that manufacturing performance has exceeded expectations, suggesting strong economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board. Among them, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (the highest since November 23), while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.68% (the highest level since May).Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE index had significantly dropped, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken when the MOVE index hit its low in mid-December. On January 8, Bitcoin fell 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 dropped over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market is currently dominating broader market trends, making it difficult for risk assets to regain upward momentum before the Treasury market stabilizes.

Monetary economist: Selling the Federal Reserve's gold to buy BTC is equivalent to the government's "backdoor loan."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's previously proposed funding plan for Bitcoin purchases partially relies on the large gold heritage owned by the United States—these gold reserves were left over from the era when the dollar was pegged to precious metals, allowing dollar holders to exchange dollars for gold at a fixed price.Although the dollar has not been convertible to gold since the early 1970s, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve still hold about 8,100 tons of gold. The government values this gold at $42 per ounce, which is far below the current market price of $2,650.Cynthia Lummis hopes the Treasury can reassess this gold at current market prices and use the paper profits to fund Bitcoin purchases without raising taxes or issuing new national debt. However, critics point out that this operation is not a free lunch; it would require the Federal Reserve to cover the difference between the gold certificates held by the Treasury and the new valuation through a combination of printing money and asset sales.Monetary economist George Selgin argues that this operation amounts to a "backdoor loan" from the government, bypassing the regular appropriation process to avoid new debt and obscuring the truth. Lummis's bill relies heavily on gilded magic, and George Selgin said, "What better way to win public support than to make people believe this plan won't cost a dime?"
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