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According to Fortune, the Trump family is accelerating its entry into the prediction market space, with the Trump Media Technology Group developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, allowing users to trade prediction contracts related to significant events. The company has also launched the Truth API, providing Wall Street with quick data access to Truth Social content. Additionally, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested in competitor Polymarket and joined the advisory board of Polymarket. This means the Trump family is simultaneously associated with the two major prediction market platforms, while the Trump Media Group is building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family is trading on government insider information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing external attention. Federal agencies are still investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade in related markets on Kalshi. The team of Donald Trump Jr. and the Trump Media Technology Group have yet to formally respond to requests for comments regarding insider trading related to the prediction market.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that before the non-farm data release, the probability of "Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September" on Polymarket has risen to 48%, up 5% in 24 hours, and up 24% for the month; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has fallen to 49%, down 21% for the month.The U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time, with Wall Street institutions predicting a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, showing significant divergence. Market participants believe that if the final data significantly deviates from expectations, there could be severe fluctuations in the stock, bond, and dollar markets. The unemployment rate remains a core variable of concern for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave pointed out that if the data shows "everything is safe" in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates up to three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently only pricing in one rate hike for the year.

U.S. President Trump officially signed the executive order on polysilicon tariffs.

Founder of 1confirmation, Nick Tomaino, disclosed data indicating that in the past month, the Polymarket website received 43.1 million visits (according to Similarweb data), surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech applications globally.Nick Tomaino believes that the core reason for Polymarket's growth is not marketing investment, but rather its value as a "source of information," as users seek to better understand the real world through prediction markets.Polymarket currently dominates the on-chain prediction market space, with the transparency and global accessibility provided by its on-chain architecture being key to achieving the long-term goal of "better information and more truth." However, the Polymarket application in the U.S. is still in its early stages, but the product and business model are gradually maturing and beginning to enter an accelerated execution phase.

According to Jinshi, the prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking to raise funds with a valuation of over $20 billion.

According to data from The Block, the combined monthly trading volume of the three prediction market platforms Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi reached $50.6 billion in July, setting a new historical high. Among them, the trading volume of Polymarket US increased by 54% month-on-month to $5 billion, while Polymarket decreased by 26% month-on-month to $7.9 billion.

According to official news, the prediction market Polymarket announced a significant adjustment to its settlement mechanism for cryptocurrency price fluctuation markets starting from August 7, to protect market integrity. From midnight UTC on that day, the affected markets will no longer settle based on a single price snapshot at a specific time but will instead use a time-weighted average price.Markets of different durations correspond to different TWAP windows: all cryptocurrency 5-minute markets will use a 30-second TWAP, 15-minute markets will use a 60-second TWAP, and 4-hour markets will also use a 60-second TWAP. The previous single snapshot settlement method was prone to price manipulation during periods of low liquidity, and this change is a proactive reinforcement of the market integrity system by Polymarket after facing regulatory scrutiny.To support this transition, Polymarket will inject $1 million in liquidity rewards into all affected markets throughout August. On the technical side, Chainlink TWAP testnet data streams are now available, and mainnet data streams along with Polymarket real-time data stream services will go live on August 4, at which point developers can access TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or Polymarket's public WebSocket.

According to Fortune, the prediction market platform Polymarket has established the Polymarket Institute, a new organization dedicated to researching prediction market information discovery and forecasting mechanisms, fully funded by Polymarket but without disclosing the specific amount.The institute will set up a "Scientific Scholarship" program to fund doctoral researchers conducting research in related fields, initially recruiting 12 researchers, each of whom will receive a one-time grant of $10,000. To ensure research independence, researchers are prohibited from trading on platforms like Polymarket during their tenure and retain the unconditional right to publish any research findings (even if unfavorable to Polymarket). The funding will adopt a university donation model rather than commissioned research to avoid Polymarket having editorial influence over the results.Polymarket's Chief Data Officer Kai Brusch will serve as the Managing Director of the institute, and Carnegie Mellon University Assistant Professor of Economics and Technology Brian Jabarian will serve as the Scientific Director. To avoid conflicts of interest, Jabarian will not receive personal compensation for this role.

According to reports from China News Service, multiple South Korean media outlets believe that the recent sharp decline in the stock market is interpreted as a shock from the listing of China's largest semiconductor company, Changxin Technology. The market is worried that Changxin Technology will use the funds raised from its stock market listing to catch up with semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and this concern has spread, leading to a setback in investor sentiment.According to a previous report by CNBC, Z-Ben Advisors analyst Peter Alexander believes that, referencing the development paths of the steel and new energy vehicle industries, Changxin Technology will quickly seize market share in the low-end memory chip market and ultimately shake the monopoly positions of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology in the global memory industry.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "Ethereum will reach price in July" prediction market, the probability of ETH reaching $2000 is 26%, down 46% in 24 hours; the probability of dropping to $1800 is currently reported at 43%, up 28% in 24 hours. According to the rules of this prediction market, the relevant results are determined based on the highest price of the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair's 1-minute K-line.Yesterday, ETH once surged to $1981, less than 1% away from the $2000 mark, but then quickly fell back and has now dropped below $1900.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota ruled that the state law classifying the operation of prediction markets as a criminal offense likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), suspending the enforcement of the state law.The judge found that prediction market contracts structurally fall under the category of "swap" products regulated by the CFTC, and that federal law takes precedence over state law, with the three plaintiffs "likely to prevail in a formal trial." Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket. This preliminary injunction will remain in effect until a final judgment is made in the case.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's SpaceX Starship conducting its 13th test flight on July 24 has risen to 77%, up 16% in 24 hours; the probability for the 13th test flight on July 25 has risen to 83%, up 35% in 24 hours.SpaceX previously announced that due to weather reasons, the 13th test flight of the SpaceX Starship was postponed to July 24, but it is still uncertain whether the weather reasons still exist. SpaceX attempted the first test flight of the Starship on July 17, but due to some Raptor engines failing to start as expected, the automatic launch abort procedure was triggered, resulting in the failure of the first test flight. It is reported that SpaceX is currently fully "betting" on the Starship and has begun to refuse commercial Falcon rocket launch orders after 2028.

The PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "the next Claude Opus model being released on July 23, 2026" on Polymarket is currently reported at 61%, up 51% in the last 24 hours. In addition, the probability of "being released before July 24" is currently reported at 9%; the probability of "being released before July 25" is currently reported at 5%.This event will settle based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made publicly available. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be open to the public (including public testing or open waiting lists). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not included, and the final settlement will primarily rely on official information from Anthropic.

According to a report by Reuters, the prediction market platform Polymarket issued a statement that it will challenge the decision of the French National Gaming Authority (ANJ) to block its website through legal proceedings.Last week, the ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block Polymarket on the grounds that the platform could lead to significant betting losses for users and that some bets were at risk of being manipulated. Polymarket expressed disappointment at ANJ's sudden decision.

The Polygon Foundation posted on the X platform that the Ithaca hard fork has been successfully deployed on the Amoy testnet and will go live on the Polygon mainnet at block height 50,185,000 (expected at 22:00 Beijing time on July 29).This upgrade aims to enhance payment reliability: automatic failover during rare stalls of block producers ensures smooth transactions, new protective mechanisms intercept transactions that may cause the network to slow down or become unstable, while providing node operators with clearer visibility to ensure seamless integration of underlying operations. All node operators are required to upgrade as soon as possible to ensure compatibility and network security.

According to data from The Block, in the days leading up to the World Cup final, the total open interest (OI) of Kalshi and Polymarket combined has decreased by 20% from a peak of about $2 billion in early July. When smoothed weekly, the total OI rose from about $1.2 billion at the end of May to nearly $1.8 billion in the week of July 5, before falling back to about $1.5 billion in the week of July 19.The decline in trading volume was even more severe: Kalshi's sports trading volume dropped from a peak of about $9 billion in the week of July 5 to about $4 billion (a decrease of about 55%), while Polymarket fell from about $2.3 billion to $740 million (a decrease of nearly 70%). During the event, sports-related trading accounted for about 80% of the total trading volume on both platforms. On July 19, Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 to win the World Cup.According to statistics from DeFiOasis, approximately 194,000 addresses participated in Polymarket's World Cup champion market trading, of which about two-thirds incurred losses, with 54 addresses making over $100,000 (including 5 over $1 million), and 43 addresses losing over $100,000. It is expected that the activity in the prediction market will remain low until the next major catalytic event (the U.S. midterm elections in the fall).

The 2026 World Cup has concluded, and Gate Prediction Market's World Cup section has simultaneously completed its event cycle services. As a one-stop prediction experience portal built around the World Cup, during this event, Gate Prediction Market recorded a total participation of 501,190 users, with a total trading volume exceeding 528 million USD and a total of 2,630,280 transactions, continuously demonstrating user engagement in the sports event prediction scenario. According to data from Polymarket Builders, Gate Prediction Market's trading performance continues to lead, with a single-day trading volume on July 19 ranking first in the Polymarket channel, and the cumulative trading volume for the past week and this month also ranking first in the Polymarket channel.Gate continues to expand its sports prediction scenarios, launching the "E-sports Peak Trading Season" event from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During the event, users can sign up and participate in designated event prediction trading in the Gate Polymarket e-sports section to enjoy newcomer benefits, weekly trading tasks, and prediction trading leaderboards, sharing in generous rewards.As the first centralized trading platform to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become an important entry point for users to participate in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the homepage Alpha section, and conveniently participate in various event predictions using USDT in their accounts. Users can also utilize the "Smart Money" feature to track high-win-rate traders' positions and market judgments, gaining more reference for event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market, providing users with a diversified experience from event judgment to trading participation.

According to Bloomberg, as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi expand, the issue of betting using non-public information or informational advantages is receiving more scrutiny. Bloomberg Businessweek analyzed approximately 34,000 potential insider trading cases flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026; these related trades exhibited characteristics such as newly created accounts, low probability entries, large bets, or high trading concentration, but it cannot be determined that traders violated rules based on this.Data shows that from January 1 to June 30 of this year, the amount of suspicious trades flagged on Polymarket was approximately $200 million, with geopolitical and war-related markets driving a significant increase in abnormal trading volume. The profits from potential insider trading are highly concentrated, with the top 1% of accounts in profit wallets earning more than half of the gains, and 57% of related wallets created less than 24 hours before the trades. Some traders are reducing the likelihood of being discovered by using multiple associated wallets and splitting orders. For example, 38 associated addresses placed bets in 90 geopolitical markets related to Iran and Venezuela, achieving a win rate of 98%, with total profits of $1.6 million, and withdrew funds using the same Coinbase deposit address.Polymarket stated that it will monitor insider trading and other illegal activities, and has so far referred nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement agencies. Kalshi has also strengthened identity and employment information checks, and restricted participation in related markets by political candidates, athletes, and others who may influence outcomes.