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Polymarket CEO: Chasing hundredfold tokens is a game of "irrational exuberance."

Polymarket's CEO Shayne Coplan stated during a fireside chat at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that cryptocurrency trading is evolving into a game of "irrational exuberance," where traders compete to be the first to find the next hundredfold token. He pointed out that people think they are buying something valuable, but in reality, it is worthless; however, as long as there is a possibility of it rising to 100 times, they want to sell before it goes to zero. Coplan mentioned that some traders can gain considerable wealth through this strategy, but it is essentially a game of "irrational exuberance and hot potato," where rising asset prices will eventually fall back.Coplan indicated that the continuous growth of Polymarket's user base shows that some traders are looking for betting opportunities with more predictable odds, rather than the next skyrocketing cryptocurrency. He explained that trading these markets on Polymarket does not have exponential upside potential, but informed traders will continue to place bets on future events with more predictable odds. According to data from DefiLlama, Polymarket is the second-largest prediction market, with a trading volume of $1.21 billion in the past seven days, while the largest market, Kalshi, had $2.3 billion.The growth of prediction markets has also attracted more attention from U.S. regulators. It was reported that JPMorgan terminated its banking relationship with Polymarket on August 14 due to regulatory concerns but expressed interest in acting as an underwriter if Polymarket seeks to go public.

Polymarket launched Protocol V2, reconstructing the underlying architecture of the existing protocol

Polymarket has launched the next-generation prediction market smart contract system, Polymarket Protocol V2, which reconstructs the underlying architecture of the existing protocol. The current protocol is based on the Gnosis Conditional Tokens Framework from 2019, requiring additional adapters, trading contracts, and authorization processes for each new market type; V2 unifies this by using a single ERC1155 position token contract, pUSD collateral assets, trading platform contracts, and routers.V2 adopts a modular architecture, initially supporting binary, atomic negative risk, incremental negative risk, and composite markets, and connects to UMA, Chainlink, and other future oracles through a new OracleAggregator. The protocol natively supports cross-chain positions, collateral assets, and settlement results, reserving a foundation for future multi-chain deployments; all contracts can be upgraded under a secure governance process.V2 has been audited by Cantina, Certora, Quantstamp, SigmaPrime, Zellic, and Pashov, with formal verification completed by Certora, offering a maximum bounty of $5 million for critical vulnerabilities. Polymarket will operate a limited number of grayscale markets in the production environment from October 5 to 30, with plans to switch new markets to V2 starting November 2, along with the launch of Data API V2 built on Rust and an internal on-chain indexer.

first_img Polymarket released Protocol V2, planning to switch to a new market in November

The prediction market platform Polymarket has announced the launch of Polymarket Protocol V2, calling it the next-generation prediction market smart contract system. The existing contracts are based on the conditional token framework from Gnosis in 2019, with various markets subsequently integrated through additional adapters. V2 rebuilds position tokens from scratch, using a single ERC1155 position contract, a single collateral pUSD, a single exchange, and a single routing, with position IDs directly encoding market type, market, and outcome.V2 supports binary, atomic negative risk, incremental negative risk, and composite markets with a modular architecture, and expands position operations to enhance capital efficiency. Settlement is accessed through OracleAggregator, integrating pluggable oracles, including UMA, Chainlink, and future sources. The protocol features built-in cross-chain bridging designs for positions, collateral, and settlement, and can be upgraded through governance processes. Future research directions include scalar settlement and directional collateral return.The code has been audited by Cantina, Certora, Quantstamp, SigmaPrime, Zellic, and Pashov, and has undergone formal verification by Certora, with a maximum critical vulnerability bounty of $5 million. The canary market will operate in the production environment from today until October 30, with new markets tentatively scheduled to switch on November 2. At the same time, Data API V2 will be launched, based on a self-developed on-chain indexer, supporting V2, unified response formats, and cursor pagination.

first_img Galaxy: Polymarket 69.2% retail account loss

Galaxy Research released a report titled "The Behavior of Polymarket Traders," with data compiled by Stork, based on approximately 2.9 million retail accounts defined by trading frequency on the Polymarket international platform. The report states that since its launch in 2020, the platform has facilitated 1.27 billion orders, involving 3.07 million wallets, with a nominal amount of 82.8 billion USD. 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders on active days were excluded, accounting for 4.1% of accounts but contributing 80.8% of orders and 41% of nominal trading volume.The report shows that 69.2% of retail accounts are below breakeven, with total losses of 338.9 million USD. The median retail account lost about 3 USD, with half of the accounts falling between -36.64 USD and +0.40 USD. The proportion of accounts that did not trade again within 30 days after a loss is 15.2%, while after a profit it is 6.1%. The excluded automated accounts collectively made a profit of 246.8 million USD. The median position for profit-makers is 13.96 USD, while for loss-makers it is 10 USD.44.1% of traders concentrated over 60% of their activity on a single theme. Sports specialists account for 47% of all specialists, with a profit ratio of 25.1%, the lowest among all themes; technology and science specialists have a profit ratio of 41.2%. The report covers the entire history of the international platform and mentions that the platform will introduce taker fees in early 2026. At a price point of 50 cents, crypto market takers pay 1.75 USD for a position of 100 shares or 50 USD, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the invested capital.
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