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The prediction market Polymarket regarding "What price will Bitcoin reach in August?" shows that as of now, the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 in August is about 81%, the probability of reaching $82,500 is about 49%, and the probability of reaching $85,000 is about 27%.The probability of falling below $75,000 is about 50%. The above data fluctuates in real-time with market trading, and there are about 9 days left until the end of August.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "ETH reaching $2400 during the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has risen to 82%, up 40% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $2500 has risen to 50%, up 26% in 24 hours.The market is based on the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick equals or exceeds the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes; otherwise, it will be No. Only the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance ETH/USDT is considered, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not included.

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.

According to Bloomberg, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) stated that it will consider participating in the new round of financing for the prediction market platform Polymarket. ICE is the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and has previously invested over $1.6 billion in Polymarket.ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, stated that if the company’s participation could help complete Polymarket's current round of financing, it would remain open to that possibility, adding that its investment endorsement could provide support for the financing.Analysts believe that ICE's previous large-scale investment in Polymarket is seen as an important attempt by traditional exchanges to lay out new market infrastructure. If it continues to participate in the financing, it may further strengthen the connection between prediction markets and the mainstream financial system.

Institutional-level on-chain financial infrastructure developer Blueprint Finance announced the completion of strategic financing, led by Polychain Capital, with participation from Bullish, Keyrock, BitGo, FalconX, G-20, Flowdesk, JPEG Trading, Sentient Capital, Andes, and 2Square. Blueprint Finance is the core developer of Concrete, a full-stack treasury infrastructure aimed at institutions, protocols, and asset managers, used to launch, manage, and allocate capital through complex on-chain strategy configurations, integrating execution, accounting, risk control, rebalancing, and protocols into a unified treasury system.This round of financing will support its continued expansion of Concrete and promote collaboration with protocols, asset issuers, networks, and institutional allocators to build a treasury that supports on-chain yield products and acts as core liquidity infrastructure. In addition to treasury infrastructure, Blueprint Finance is also expanding the Concrete ecosystem, launching on-chain financial primitives such as AssetCX and concUSD.Blueprint Finance CEO and co-founder Nic Roberts-Huntley stated that DeFi is moving beyond merely chasing the highest advertised yields; the next phase concerns infrastructure, providing professional allocators with control, transparency, automation, and risk management while retaining on-chain market advantages.

According to the official announcement from MSX, the platform has officially opened the redemption application for the Pre-IPO Phase II projects Anthropic and Polymarket.Official data shows that as of the latest valuation, the subscription price for Polymarket has risen from $152 per share to $202.67 per share, with a floating profit of 33.3%; the latest valuation of Anthropic is also higher than the subscription price.After this redemption opening, users can choose to apply for redemption and settle in USDT at the latest market price according to their own needs, or continue to hold until the target completes its IPO.Previously, MSX had completed the trading loop from subscription to listing for the Pre-IPO Phase I projects $CBRS and $SPCX. Users can log in to the MSX platform page to view specific redemption rules and asset status.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "ETH reaching $1900 in August" on Polymarket has dropped to 7%, a 43% decrease in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of rising to $2400 has increased to 42%, a 40% increase in 24 hours. This market is based on the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair.During the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick is equal to or higher than the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes; otherwise, it will be No. Only the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance ETH/USDT will be used; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be counted.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of SOL on Polymarket reaching $90 in August has risen to 52%, with a 24-hour increase of 46%. Additionally, the probability of reaching $100 has risen to 16%, with a 24-hour increase of 15%.According to the settlement rules, this market is settled based on the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. If the highest price of any 1-minute K-line during August reaches or exceeds the corresponding target price, it will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No". OKX market data shows that after a morning surge breaking through $87, SOL has pulled back, with a 24-hour increase of over 9%.

The Korea Communications Standards Commission (KCSC) held a meeting of the Communications Review Subcommittee and determined that the overseas prediction market platform Polymarket provided illegal betting, deciding to implement access blocking measures against it. The committee judged that Polymarket's business model is based on the outcomes of events that users cannot control, such as politics, sports, elections, and weather, adopting a "winner takes all" profit and loss structure that fosters speculative psychology; the platform operator is responsible for market establishment, trading rule setting, and overall operational management, providing a virtual asset acceptance and settlement system, which effectively creates an environment for raising and delivering user funds, and profits by charging transaction fees through share trading, violating South Korea's Criminal Law and the National Sports Promotion Act.Polymarket argued that the platform operates based on non-custodial peer-to-peer trading and smart contracts, and does not directly raise funds, manage funds, or issue sports promotion voting rights. However, the committee responded that one cannot evade the applicability of domestic laws in South Korea based on technical characteristics such as whether Korean language services are provided, decentralized technology, or centralized trading interfaces. Given that the platform has actually provided illegal betting to South Korean users, access blocking is unavoidable to protect domestic users.

The PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before August 31 has risen to 24%, an increase of 8% in 24 hours; the probability of it being released before September 15 is currently reported at 61%, an increase of 6% in 24 hours. According to the settlement rules, if OpenAI releases Astra before the corresponding deadline, or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as Astra and makes it publicly available, the market will settle as "Yes."Public testing or open waitlists qualify, but closed testing and private access do not count; the main settlement basis is OpenAI's official information. Previously, OpenAI disclosed that it would slow down the development process of Astra until appropriate safety measures are established. However, OpenAI founder Sam Altman also stated that Astra is a powerful model, and the company is working hard to make it available to a broader range of users.

According to ibtimes, JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking partnership with the prediction market platform Polymarket last year due to regulatory risks, but the bank has not completely cut ties with this rapidly growing company and still maintains various forms of cooperation, expressing interest in participating in the underwriting of Polymarket's initial public offering (IPO) in the future.A person close to Polymarket stated that JPMorgan "does not want to burn all bridges." Polymarket denied that the relationship between the two parties has significantly weakened, stating that the company still maintains a "close and active cooperative relationship" with JPMorgan, involving multiple entities, operational integration, and client fund flow management, among other areas.

According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking services for Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, requiring the company to seek new banking institutions. Previously, Polymarket was banned from providing services to U.S. customers after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission took enforcement action in 2022.Currently, Polymarket has partnered with a new bank, but the specific name has not been disclosed. JPMorgan Chase still maintains business dealings with Polymarket and invited its CEO Shayne Coplan to participate in a private banking client meeting held in Miami this February, where he spoke alongside former NFL player Tom Brady. Polymarket stated that the two parties continue to maintain a close and active relationship in various areas, including multiple entities, operational integration, and customer fund flow management.Since 2026, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced legal actions from multiple U.S. states regarding their alleged operation as illegal sports bookmakers, while the relevant platforms argue that they operate as exchanges facilitating trades between buyers and sellers, rather than as bookmakers. According to user aggregated data, the nominal trading volume of prediction markets has exceeded $250 billion since 2026.Meanwhile, Polymarket is seeking over $1 billion in financing, with a target valuation of $20 billion, more than doubling from the approximately $8 billion valuation during the last round of financing in 2025.

According to official news, the Turf team has joined Polymarket.This team of 6 has built a real-time NFL prediction game over the past year, allowing users to predict the next play, the next score, and more while watching live broadcasts. The team has now joined the Polymarket US website and app team.Polymarket stated that it will continue to seek outstanding talent, committed to creating a world-class product, design, and engineering team.

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan announced on August 12 on the X platform that Travis VanderZanden has joined Polymarket as Chief Growth Officer.It was reported that Travis V. previously served as the Head of Driver Growth at Uber, Chief Revenue Officer at Yammer, and founded and served as CEO of the bike-sharing company Bird.

SKALE Labs announced the launch of Agent Pit on August 12. This platform is a paper trading prediction market sandbox running on the SKALE zero Gas blockchain, fully mirroring Polymarket's order book, settlement mechanism, and real-time event data, allowing developers and AI agents to test and train trading strategies without real financial risk.Agent Pit is the first product of the SKALE Agentic Venture Studio. Developers can fine-tune agents here, participate in simulated ROI leaderboard competitions, and deploy models to real markets like Polymarket after completing training. SKALE Labs CEO Jack O'Holleran stated that there is a clear demand in the market for a prediction market strategy training environment aimed at agents.

According to reports from American media, the New York City Council is investigating the advertising practices of the four major prediction market platforms, opening a new battleground for the legal controversies facing this rapidly growing industry.New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin sent an inquiry letter containing numerous questions to Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase Global Inc., and the prediction market platform Titan under Gemini Space Station, as part of a so-called legislative investigation aimed at examining whether existing city laws are sufficient to protect residents from false or deceptive marketing by these emerging platforms.The City Council is also studying the development of relevant policies to address products that may lead users to "engage in compulsive betting on event contracts." In a letter to Polymarket, the City Council stated: "The City Council is investigating allegations related to Polymarket, and more importantly, is examining the prevalence of similar marketing practices in the broader prediction market industry, as well as the associated social harms caused to New York City residents."

PPP market prediction tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "Anthropic valuation reaches target within the year" prediction event, the probability of reaching $1.5 trillion within the year has risen to 76%, an increase of 13% in 24 hours. The probability of reaching $1.25 trillion has risen to 92%, an increase of 8% in 24 hours. According to the settlement rules, this market primarily relies on the valuation of Anthropic's private market as announced by the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM).If Anthropic completes its IPO or direct listing during this period, the official issue price corresponding to the valuation and the public market value after listing will also be included in the settlement basis. Currently, the NPM data referenced on the Polymarket page shows a valuation of approximately $1.13 trillion. Previously, according to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic plans to go public in September or early October, with specific issue prices and schedules yet to be announced. If successfully listed, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history.

A U.S. judge has suspended the CFTC's civil case against Army Sergeant Van Dyke. The sergeant is accused of using non-public information to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket regarding the fate of Maduro.