poly

Polymarket data shows that traders expect a 64% probability that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in September, and a 68.5% probability that it will drop to $75,000. Market pricing indicates a higher likelihood of a downward scenario. The market stipulates that if the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute K-line highest price reaches or exceeds $80,000 before September 30, it will be determined as "Yes."The market was created on September 7, and prices before creation are not counted; Bitcoin reached $81,265 and $80,329 on September 4 and September 7, respectively. Polymarket data shows that the total trading volume for the September price event is $5.17 million, with liquidity of about $1.46 million; Bitcoin's intraday high reached $79,505, just $495 away from triggering conditions. The probabilities for $90,000 and $100,000 are 8.5% and 1.75%, respectively, while the probabilities for $72,500 and $70,000 are 40.5% and 22.5%.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved at least three insider trading investigations related to Polymarket trading, involving contracts related to Biden's pardons, the Iran war, and Google-related events. The relevant investigation documents were obtained by WIRED through the Freedom of Information Act.Among them, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation into contracts related to Biden's pardons in May, after a trader had profited over $300,000 in the relevant market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was reported to have profited $2.4 million with a win rate of about 98%. In July, the CFTC further initiated an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have traded using non-public information regarding Google's 2025 search rankings. The Southern District Attorney's Office in New York is also conducting a parallel investigation.It is currently unclear whether the aforementioned accounts are connected to previously investigated individuals. Polymarket stated that the company would refer the relevant matters to law enforcement and cooperate with the investigation. As the prediction market rapidly expands, U.S. regulators are clearly intensifying their scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation.

According to Bloomberg, Riot Games, a subsidiary of Tencent, is the developer of popular video games such as League of Legends and Valorant. According to informed sources, the company recently discussed esports sponsorship collaboration with two major prediction market operators, Kalshi and Polymarket.Riot Games spokesperson Joe Hixson stated in an email that prediction markets are an emerging field, and the company is evaluating them with a focus on maintaining the integrity of competitive events, the potential value to teams, the impact on fan experience, and alignment with the overall ecosystem goals.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) stated in its latest risk report that major prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have not obtained the necessary authorization to provide event contract services in the EU, and some platforms only restrict users from certain EU countries. ESMA questioned the effectiveness of their geographical restrictions and VPN blocking measures.ESMA pointed out that event contracts may be classified as financial instruments based on their specific structure, fall under the MiCA framework, or be regulated by member states' betting regulations. If classified as financial instruments, their marketing, distribution, and sale to retail investors are generally subject to existing binary options restrictions.

ARK Invest crypto analyst Lorenzo Valente stated that stablecoins have a significant network effect. Although there are thousands of stablecoins in the market, as the market capitalization threshold increases, the number of tiers is rapidly leveling off. Currently, the stablecoins that are truly worth paying attention to are those with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion dollars, gradually moving towards the 100 billion and 500 billion dollar levels.Data shows that the number of stablecoins with a market capitalization exceeding 1 billion dollars has only increased from single digits to the current 12 since 2021, while the number of stablecoins with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion dollars has actually decreased from its peak in 2022, with only Tether and Circle's stablecoins remaining. Valente believes that entering the 10 billion dollar market capitalization club has become very difficult, and in the future, the 100 billion dollar level stablecoins may only have two competitors for a long time, while it may take more than two years for only one to reach the 500 billion dollar level.

According to Bloomberg, the prediction market platform Polymarket has appointed its first Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Warren Jenson, as the company seeks a new round of investment and attempts to regain growth momentum in competition with its main rival Kalshi.Jenson previously held senior financial positions at media research company Nielsen and marketing company LiveRamp, and officially joined Polymarket this week. Reports indicate that Polymarket has recently fallen behind Kalshi in market competition, and this CFO appointment is seen as an important move for the company to strengthen financial management and drive a new round of financing.

LayerZero announced the launch of Akita, calling it the first production-ready, lattice-based polynomial commitment scheme for post-quantum security.LayerZero stated that this is the first major step to achieve quantum security for Zero and will be implemented on the first day of Jolt's launch, thanks to collaboration with a16z crypto.

According to PR Newswire, the prediction market Polymarket announced today the launch of Squads, a brand new social feature within its U.S. version of the Polymarket app. Squads provides friends with a dedicated space for communication where users can discuss markets, share their prediction choices, and trade directly on Polymarket with friends.Squads brings market discussions that originally took place in group chats to the Polymarket platform, concentrating discussions and actual trading in one place, allowing friends to more easily participate and experience the prediction market together.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "ETH reaching $2600 during the remaining period of September" on Polymarket has risen to 74%, up 10% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $2700 has risen to 51%, up 9% in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick of Binance ETH/USDT reaches or exceeds the specified price within the designated month, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". This market settlement is based solely on Binance ETH/USDT price data, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not considered.

This set of posts seems to be the first public exposure of James's formal relationship with Polymarket. Polymarket, as well as representatives from James and the 76ers, did not immediately respond to The Block's request for comment. Previously, James's free agency decision generated approximately $273 million in related contract trading volume across major prediction platforms, according to Legal Sports Report, surpassing any single basketball game; data from Front Office Sports indicated that the related trading volume on Kalshi was about $226 million, while Polymarket's international platform exceeded $43 million.Most traders bet on the wrong outcome: before the official announcement, the odds of the 76ers winning were only about 9%, while the Heat were around 45%. James subsequently signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the 76ers, which includes a player option. Additionally, James had signed a multi-year talent ambassador agreement with DraftKings in 2024. Some fans expressed criticism of James's collaboration with prediction platforms in social media comments.

On September 3, the prediction market platform Polymarket launched its perpetual contract product Polymarket Perps, initially covering 10 contracts including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, gold, silver, WTI crude oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and contracts tracking SpaceX stock, expanding to 67 markets within hours.This product has no expiration date, with contract prices continuously tracking the underlying assets and maintaining anchoring to spot prices through a funding rate that settles hourly, with a bidirectional cap on the funding rate of 4% per hour. Cryptocurrencies, S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and silver support up to 20 times leverage, while individual stocks and other real assets support up to 10 times. U.S. traders are unable to place Perps orders and will be directed to Polymarket US, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This arrangement stems from a settlement reached between Polymarket and the CFTC in 2022, where the company was fined $1.4 million for operating an unregistered swap execution facility and was required to cease related non-compliant contracts.

Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon and CEO of the foundation, stated that today he initiated a cryptocurrency campaign to support the people of Nepal and donate to the Nepalese Prime Minister's Disaster Relief Fund, with the donation link provided. This pathway utilizes blockchain technology to ensure that funds enter the government relief fund in the local currency.The campaign is supported by Polygon's Open Money Stack, Coinme, and Cross River Bank. Blockchain for Impact has pledged to donate $100,000. Nailwal mentioned that stablecoins are suitable for use when funds need to be quickly delivered to those in need.Nailwal stated that he was born in the Kumaon region of Uttarakhand, India, adjacent to Nepal, and his maternal family also hails from that area. Communities on both sides of the Indonesia border have been connected for generations through family, culture, faith, food, trade, and daily life. India and Nepal are often referred to as having a familial and shared life bond known as "roti-beti ka rishta." He hopes that people will participate in Nepal's relief and reconstruction using stablecoins.

The prediction market platform Polymarket officially launches perpetual futures trading, covering cryptocurrencies, stocks, indices, and commodities, with a maximum leverage of 20 times.

Polygon Labs announced that it has completed a SOC 2 Type 1 examination for the Polygon Open Money Stack API and dashboard, covering the security trust services criteria. The independent auditing firm Schellman & Company, LLC determined that Polygon has implemented appropriate security controls.SOC 2 is an auditing framework established by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. A Type 1 examination assesses whether the design of the control system is correct at the time of the examination, while a Type 2 examination is ongoing and will test the execution of relevant controls over several months of actual operation. The report states that complementary user entity controls are not necessary for Polygon to fulfill its service commitments.Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron stated that as a technology provider handling real funds, it is essential to meet the standards of financial institutions, and most crypto infrastructure has never been audited against this standard for systems actually integrated by customers. Type 1 confirms that the control design is correct, and Type 2 will confirm its daily operation.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket "OpenAI's Astra being released before September 11" has risen to 86%, up 41% in 24 hours; the probability of it being released before September 15 has risen to 91%, up 29% in 24 hours.If OpenAI publicly releases "Astra" before the specified date, or releases a product confirmed by official or credible media to be the same model as the previously announced "Astra," the event will settle as "Yes," otherwise it will be "No." Eligible models can use names such as Astra, Astra 1, Astra 6, GPT-6 Astra, etc., and can be renamed upon release. Models like GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 will only count if confirmed to be the same model as the previously mentioned Astra. The model must be publicly accessible, including public testing or open waitlists; closed testing and private access do not count. Settlement is primarily based on official information from OpenAI and references consensus reports from credible media.

According to The Block data panel, the combined trading volume of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US in August fell by 14.5% month-on-month to $45.33 billion, marking the first monthly decline in a year. Among them, Kalshi's trading volume in August was $37.17 billion, down 7.3% from $40.1 billion in July; the combined trading volume of Polymarket and its US platform was $8.16 billion, down 36.7% from $12.89 billion in July.The decline in August occurred after a surge in summer prediction market activity driven by the World Cup (June 11 to July 19), but the August trading volume was still significantly higher than May's $25.66 billion. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket are facing increasingly stringent scrutiny from state-level regulators in the US, particularly regarding sports-related contracts, with more than ten states taking enforcement actions or filing lawsuits against the two platforms. Last week, Connecticut sued Kalshi, seeking to prevent the platform from offering sports contracts.Despite the escalating legal disputes with state regulators, Kalshi continues to expand its presence in the sports sector, recently signing an agreement with the United States Tennis Association to become the exclusive prediction market partner for the US Open. Additionally, earlier this week, Kalshi permanently banned former US Congressman George Santos, marking its first permanent ban, due to Santos violating rules by betting on whether he would attend the State of the Union address, resulting in a fine of over $71,000.

According to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital plans to invest an additional approximately $300 million in the prediction market platform Polymarket, as part of a $1 billion financing round led by 1789 Capital. If completed, Polymarket's valuation will reach approximately $21 billion.1789 Capital has previously invested about $200 million in Polymarket, and after this round, it will become one of its largest investors. The largest investor in Polymarket currently is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which previously disclosed holding Polymarket shares valued at $1.6 billion, accounting for about 22% of the company's outstanding shares.

According to Businesswire, the cryptocurrency asset investment fund C1 Fund announced its performance for the second quarter of 2026, revealing that as of the second quarter of this year, its portfolio has expanded to 11 cryptocurrency companies, covering areas such as cryptocurrency payments, custody, compliance, staking, exchanges, infrastructure development, and prediction markets. Its two major investment exposures are Ripple (accounting for 17.5% of net assets) and Kraken's parent company Payward (16.9%), and it has also made a new investment in the prediction market platform Polymarket, although the specific investment amount has not been disclosed.C1 Fund also stated that as of July 31, it has repurchased and canceled 249,300 shares of the company's stock, with a total cost of approximately $824,000, and it is currently authorized to repurchase up to $3 million in stock.

According to a Reuters report, Polymarket's new Global Head of Research and Intelligence, Shana Bautista (former analyst at Coinbase, former investigator at the FBI), stated that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, Polymarket has established a system to identify unusual trading activities and will continue to prevent U.S. users from using its international platform to comply with the settlement agreement reached with U.S. regulators in 2022.In addition, Polymarket plans to launch a new webpage to publicly disclose the operational details of market integrity review mechanisms such as machine learning, blockchain analysis, and trading monitoring, and revealed that it has referred over 100 cases to law enforcement agencies.