poly

The probability on Polymarket that "Waller will be confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before May 15" rose from 27% to 85%, a short-term increase of 211%. The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to withdraw the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Previously, Senator Banking Committee member Thom Tillis stated that if Trump did not withdraw the criminal investigation against current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, he would block Waller's nomination for Chairman of the Federal Reserve from entering the Senate's full voting process. Under the current influence of the news that the Department of Justice will withdraw the criminal investigation against Powell, the market expects that Waller has a very high probability of being confirmed by the Senate as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Powell's term ends.

Gate Research Institute released a market forecast report titled "Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate's Layout for New Entry into Prediction Markets," which dissects trading volume, fee mechanisms, and market structure. The report points out that Polymarket's trading volume and active users continue to grow, and the platform has evolved from early on-chain experiments into an event trading market with real liquidity and revenue capabilities. Overall growth is driven by political, sports, and geopolitical events, and user retention may decline during the phase when hot topics fade.Fees and revenues are rising rapidly, driven on one hand by expanding trading demand and on the other by the expansion of the fee scope and changes in the fee structure. Revenue growth is directly related to rule adjustments. Platform trading is highly concentrated in a few high-interest sectors, and the long-tail market contributes limited overall liquidity.Gate has integrated a Polymarket entry in the app, providing two interaction modes: prediction mode and trading mode. Users can participate using USDT through their exchange accounts or use USDC on Polygon via a Web3 wallet. The report believes that prediction markets are evolving along two parallel paths: the integration of on-chain open infrastructure and centralized products. Its long-term potential depends on the continuous stability of event supply, regulatory environment, and user behavior.

According to the official page, Polymarket has added a Steam account login method.

Polymarket stated on platform X, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discover users trading on government confidential information, we refer the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperate with their investigation. Polymarket does not tolerate insider trading, and today's arrests prove that this system is effective."The arrest mentioned by Polymarket refers to the U.S. federal authorities arresting a special forces soldier this Thursday who was involved in the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. This soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's ouster. Sources say federal investigators believe this commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January.

MegaETH announced that the TGE will take place on April 30, and the probability of "MegaETH issuing tokens before April 30" on Polymarket is currently 95%, which may be related to the settlement rules.The market settlement rule states that if MegaETH officially launches the governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the prediction market result will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no." Another key rule is "the token must be publicly transferable and tradable; merely issuing a related announcement does not meet the determination criteria," which may cause the probability to not reach 100%. Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market and sees changes before pricing.

A user profited $34,000 in the Polymarket weather prediction market by interfering with the weather sensors at Paris airport. Polymarket previously settled using data from Météo France sensors near Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, and the user bought temperature options at a very low price that were far above market expectations. The user then used a portable heat source to heat the sensor, causing the readings to spike significantly in a short period and be recorded as the highest temperature of the day. This behavior occurred twice on April 6 and April 15, and Météo France has now detected the anomalies and filed charges.

Polymarket, which has long dominated the prediction market trading volume, is facing multiple challenges. According to Dune Analytics, its global trading volume has been surpassed by major competitor Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi announced a new round of financing last month, reaching a valuation of $22 billion, while Polymarket's valuation is $15 billion after receiving a $600 million investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).Polymarket's biggest bottleneck is the inability to officially launch in the U.S. market, as its U.S. application is still in the testing phase, with March trading volume being only one-twentieth of Kalshi's. Technical challenges brought by the blockchain architecture, repeated delays in product launches, recent fee adjustments causing user dissatisfaction, and issues such as the exchange being down for over an hour continue to plague the platform.Additionally, Polymarket has faced scrutiny for allowing users to bet on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions, leading Democratic lawmakers in Congress to send a letter to the CFTC requesting intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher remains optimistic but admits it could either be a total failure or a home run.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi is preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading in the United States, expanding beyond its core prediction market business. According to insiders, the platform plans to initially introduce perpetual contracts linked to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.This move will put Kalshi in more direct competition with cryptocurrency platforms like Coinbase. Coinbase currently does not offer true perpetual contracts in the U.S., but has launched "perpetual-like" futures contracts with long durations and has expressed intentions to introduce more advanced derivatives products within the U.S.Kalshi holds several licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has recently been approved to offer margin trading, positioning it to enter the derivatives market. Insiders say the company expects to start with cryptocurrency-linked perpetual contracts and may expand this model to other asset classes in the future.Kalshi's competitor Polymarket also announced on X plans to launch perpetual futures on its platform, but did not disclose further details. A video in the tweet shows that users will be allowed to trade leveraged long and short positions on assets like gold, NVIDIA, BTC, AAPL, and indicates that registration will provide early access.

Polymarket announced that it will launch perpetual contract (Perps) features, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading with leverage on the platform in the future. The early access registration channel is now open.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the current probability of the market betting on "Will Kelp DAO share this loss?" is 25%.This market was established around the April 19 incident where the Kelp DAO bridge was attacked. The attacker exploited a LayerZero cross-chain messaging vulnerability, withdrawing approximately $292 million in rsETH from the bridge, causing damage to the collateral backing for rsETH holders on the L2 network.According to Polymarket's market rules, if Kelp DAO announces or implements a mechanism before April 30 to share part or all of the losses with mainnet rsETH holders (rather than having all losses borne by L2 holders), the market will be determined as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No".

According to The Information, citing informed sources, the prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks with investors for financing, aiming to raise $400 million at a valuation of approximately $15 billion (including new funds).This financing will be added to the $600 million funding round that the Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) invested in last month, although the exchange did not disclose the valuation at that time. Polymarket is seeking to add more strategic investors beyond the Intercontinental Exchange.

Polygon officials stated that they have been actively monitoring the rsETH vulnerability: Polygon Chain, Agglayer, and the entire ecosystem including Katana and Vaultbridge have not been affected by this incident. Polygon has safely transferred over $20 trillion in funds to date and will continue to closely monitor the situation.

Polymarket has launched "Claude developer Anthropic's next round of financing deadline," with the current probability reported at 22% before the end of June; and 81% before the end of December. The event contract rules are as follows: if the specified company publicly and officially announces that it has completed the next round of financing before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will ultimately be determined as "yes." Otherwise, this market will ultimately conclude as "no." A qualified announcement must clearly confirm that the new round of financing has been completed, which can be through the specified company (such as a press release) or official announcements from its investors, regulatory documents, or consensus reported by credible media.Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not meet the criteria. If the specified company is unable to complete the new round of financing due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by other entities, the market will be settled as "no." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official announcements from the specified company, as well as official documents from the company, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting can also be used. According to ChainCatcher, the Odaily Seer prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market and has seen changes before pricing.

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.