ChainCatcher message, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated on social media: "The ResearchHub community has seen significant growth over the past year. Excitingly, some ideas we've been thinking about for years are finally starting to come to fruition.In 2025 and beyond, we have a lot of work to do, including improving academic publishing (shortening the publication cycle of ResearchHub journals), optimizing peer review (providing compensation for review work), fundraising, and facilitating the replication of research results (introducing prediction markets)."

ChainCatcher news, Artemis data shows that only AI tokens outperformed Meme coins at the beginning of 2024. By mid-November, the returns of Meme coins were 6 times the average of the cryptocurrency market.Market insight platform Kaito AI points out that a quarter of cryptocurrency investors prioritize discussions about Meme coins. In other words, the focus is more on short-term profits rather than long-term value returns.From a narrative perspective, year-to-date, the following categories of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin: Meme, RWA, prediction markets, PolitiFi, AI, Solana, and smart contract platforms.

ChainCatcher news, Vitalik published a new article "From Prediction Markets to Information Finance" stating that he has been a close supporter and follower of Polymarket this year, and that prediction markets are one of the Ethereum applications that excite him the most.Vitalik believes that Polymarket has a dual nature: on one hand, it is a betting site for participants, and on the other hand, it serves as a news site for everyone else. As the election results gradually come in, despite many experts and news sources enticing the audience with favorable news for Harris, Polymarket directly reveals the truth that Trump's probability of winning has reached 95%. The real money invested by users allows the market to realize what the truth is closer to.Moreover, prediction markets can also use finance as a way to coordinate incentives to provide valuable information to the audience. Information finance addresses the trust issues that actually exist among people. A common concern of this era is the lack of knowledge and not knowing whom to trust in political, scientific, and business environments. Information finance applications can help be part of the solution. He predicts that a technology that will drive the development of information finance in the next decade is artificial intelligence.

ChainCatcher news, the prediction market platform Polymarket announced on social media that its platform has demonstrated accuracy that surpasses traditional polls, media reports, and expert analyses in predicting the U.S. presidential election. Polymarket claims that its highly liquid prediction market model successfully predicted election outcomes in advance, once again proving the potential of decentralized prediction markets.Polymarket stated that the platform provides global users with high-quality, transparent data and offers accurate predictions before other information sources. The company believes this is just the beginning of building a revolutionary platform capable of revealing significant global events.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, based on regulatory documents submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi is launching more political event prediction markets ahead of the U.S. elections, including the results of the Ohio statewide referendum and the announcement by the Associated Press (AP) of the results in the last state of the presidential race, among others.According to CFTC data, since October 31, Kalshi has registered over twenty contracts, most of which are related to the upcoming U.S. elections. According to the Kalshi website, as of November 1, the total betting volume for Kalshi's "Who will win the presidential election?" has reached approximately $144 million since its launch on October 7.Data from the platform shows that as of November 1, the probability of Trump winning the presidential election is 56%, while Harris's probability is 44%.

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently expressed the view that while prediction markets are not new, Polymarket has brought unprecedented global scale and liquidity through its crypto-native features.Hougan emphasized that a prediction market without participants placing bets cannot truly be called a prediction market, and Polymarket's crypto-native characteristics have helped it achieve the scale and liquidity necessary to become an effective prediction market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, lawyers from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argued in a brief submitted to the appellate court that a federal judge "erroneously" allowed the prediction market Kalshi to list and trade election contracts, reiterating many of the arguments made in the lower court.Last month, the judge ruled that the CFTC could not prohibit Kalshi from listing election contracts. The regulatory agency requested a stay from the appellate court to prevent the company from launching the product before the appeal outcome. However, the court's judge ruled that the CFTC failed to demonstrate that it would cause irreparable harm.

ChainCatcher news, according to Grayscale Research, given the increasing distrust in the media, Grayscale Research believes that prediction markets leveraging the transparency and record-keeping capabilities of blockchain technology, market incentives, and the collective intelligence of users have the potential to become a "source of truth."Decision-makers often need timely and accurate information, but according to a recent poll, trust in the media in the U.S. is currently at its lowest point in the past 50 years. With the increasing cases of misinformation, nearly three-quarters of American adults believe that news media has fueled political polarization, and nearly half express little trust in the media's ability to report news fairly and accurately.Over the past two decades, technological and economic incentives have reshaped the traditional media landscape, and decision-makers seem to be searching for alternatives. Grayscale Research believes that prediction markets can be part of the solution, especially those that harness the power of blockchain technology.

ChainCatcher News, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stated that the CFTC will continue to argue that Kalshi's election contracts are illegal and warned of potential negative impacts.Last week, a court ruled that the CFTC overstepped its authority in opposing the listing of election-related contracts by Kalshi, and the CFTC has appealed. Behnam believes that allowing the CFTC to regulate election contracts could lead the agency to become involved in investigations of election-related fraud or manipulation, which exceeds the CFTC's mandate.He also stated that the CFTC is closely monitoring overseas prediction markets that serve U.S. customers, and will take enforcement action if any violations occur.Previously, the prediction market Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC for not being registered, agreeing to exit the U.S. market.

ChainCatcher news, at the 2024 Korea Blockchain Week, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated that artificial intelligence and prediction market technology could accelerate the creation of community notes on the social media platform X. Community notes are a feature on X that allows the community to add contextual information to potentially misleading posts. Contributors can leave "notes" on posts, and if enough contributors find the note useful, it will be publicly displayed below the post.Buterin added that any delay in providing contextual information for posts through community notes is "too much." However, the Ethereum co-founder believes that the solution may be found in prediction markets. Whenever a post is published, there could be a question to determine whether it is worth the community's attention. Buterin said that people could use large language models (LLMs) and bots to place small bets in this prediction market.

ChainCatcher news, DWF Labs announced that its venture capital division DWF Ventures has released a deep analysis report on prediction markets. The report explores the current state of prediction market protocols and future development trends. DWF Labs emphasizes that prediction markets are becoming an important platform for investors to bet on real events and gauge market sentiment. Meanwhile, DWF Ventures stated that it is seeking to support innovative projects and encourages relevant teams to contact them through their official website.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, a rule change proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) may threaten the operation of rapidly growing political prediction markets like Polymarket in the United States, sparking strong opposition from cryptocurrency and fintech companies. The dissenting voices come from companies such as Gemini, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, as well as individuals like well-known blogger Scott Alexander.Industry insiders believe that the CFTC's proposal exceeds its regulatory authority. Crypto.com Senior Vice President Steve Humenik stated that the CFTC "is neither a gambling regulator nor an election regulator, and is not qualified to oversee this market."Legal experts at Dragonfly Capital argue that the Supreme Court's overturning of the Chevron doctrine means that the CFTC must ensure it has the authority to regulate these contracts. Meanwhile, Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of Gemini, has called on the CFTC to "retract this proposal and work with industry stakeholders to redefine it." Cryptocurrency companies generally believe that the CFTC's move will severely undermine the rights of U.S. citizens to access these powerful markets and are urging the CFTC to reconsider its proposal.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Vega network supported by Coinbase Ventures has also joined the competition in the prediction market, launching its own prediction-focused upgrade. Vega is a blockchain and decentralized exchange (DEX) that uses Cosmos network infrastructure, and it is one of many crypto platforms focused on perpetual futures (a tool for speculating on future asset prices).It is reported that Vega's prediction market differs from Polymarket in that it is more like an open framework rather than a fully functional betting application.