ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that due to better-than-expected U.S. employment data, Bitcoin has pulled back to the support level of $95,000. JOLTS job openings surged to 8.1 million, exceeding the expected value of 7.74 million. The unexpected strength in the labor market has triggered risk-off sentiment, leading to a sell-off in risk assets as long-term bond yields rise.Bitcoin ETF inflows plummeted from $987 million to $52.9 million, a decrease of 94%. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT recorded a significant inflow of $596 million, while ARK and 21Shares' ARKB saw an outflow of $213 million.QCP Capital believes that this week's FOMC meeting and non-farm payroll data will further influence Bitcoin's trend. The market expects that Trump's inauguration will boost optimism, and the current pullback may serve as a buildup for a bullish rebound.

ChainCatcher news, economists at Pidgen Leigel Asset Management stated in a report on the economic outlook that as inflation declines and unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025 may exceed market expectations. They noted that the Fed's preferred core inflation measure could fall below 2% at some point in 2025, while the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 4.4% or higher by the end of 2025.They also indicated that the Fed could "easily" lower rates by more than the current market expectation of a 35 basis point cut in 2025. The optimal level for the federal funds rate would be 3.3%, which implies at least four rate cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data shows that the unemployment rate in the UK rose more than expected, while wage growth slowed, but was slightly below expectations. After the data was released, the pound fell from 1.2825 to a three-month low of 1.2800 against the dollar, and the euro rose from 0.8294 to 0.8303 against the pound.In the three months to September, the unemployment rate increased from 4% in the previous quarter to 4.3%. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 4.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.7%. XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks stated in a report: "The rise in the unemployment rate may lead the market to start pricing in a rate cut by the Bank of England next month."

ChainCatcher message, recently Forbes published an article stating that the "possible reason" for the rise of Bitcoin is the market's expectation that Donald Trump will win the presidential election in two weeks, driving the strong performance of this cryptocurrency.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that as the U.S. election approaches, various statistical channels show Trump leading in the competition, but there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.Datalab options data shows that the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC during election week is 57%, while the at-the-money IV for the week before the election is only 47%, indicating a 10% IV differential for the election.The current term structure also reflects an implied market view: the market does not expect significant volatility before the election concludes. Market trading volume supports this, as even with a good upward trend this week, large players are reluctant to bet on further increases.

ChainCatcher News, a report from Bank of America analysts states that the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts may exceed market expectations. They indicated that the European Central Bank seems to have opened the door to gradual rate cuts in successive meetings, temporarily addressing the question of how quickly rates will be cut, but not answering how much the cuts will be. "Our answer is: far beyond general expectations and far beyond market pricing." Market pricing indicates that the European deposit rate will drop from the current 3.50% to 2.00%. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank at the October meeting. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, UBS strategists believe there is a significant risk that U.S. interest rates will ultimately decline more than the market is currently pricing in, which could inflate the stock market bubble. The UBS team led by Andrew Garthwaite stated that since 1981, the Federal Reserve has initiated a policy easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut accompanied by an economic recession, but this time they believe it is a sign of the Fed's aggressiveness rather than an economic downturn.Garthwaite pointed out that market pricing reflects that interest rates will bottom out around 2.8%, a level that the Federal Reserve has previously indicated as the neutral interest rate, "therefore there is a clear risk that interest rates will ultimately decline more than expected."The UBS team believes that a steepening yield curve dominated by short-term bonds is favorable for defensive stocks and the consumer goods sector, but not including luxury goods, and expects small-cap stocks to outperform, as their floating rate debt is three times that of large-cap stocks.

ChainCatcher message, regarding the Federal Reserve's 50bp rate cut, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a commentary stating that the 50bp cut is an unconventional start, partially exceeding market expectations.This 50bp rate cut aligns with CME interest rate futures expectations, but exceeds many Wall Street investment bank forecasts, and is also considered an "unconventional" start.Historically, a 50bp rate cut at the outset has only occurred during urgent economic or market situations, such as the tech bubble in January 2001, the financial crisis in September 2007, and the pandemic in March 2020.

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. August unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 3.2%, unchanged from last month's data, in line with market expectations, after declining for four consecutive months. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, NVIDIA's revenue for the second quarter reached $30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 122%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $28.86 billion. The data center revenue for the second quarter was $26.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 154%, while analysts had expected $25.08 billion; the expected revenue for the third quarter is $32.5 billion, with a fluctuation of 2%, compared to analysts' expectations of $31.9 billion; the gaming revenue for the second quarter was $2.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.79 billion; the adjusted gross profit margin for the second quarter was 75.7%, compared to 71.2% in the same period last year, while analysts expected 75.5%; the adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter was $0.68, compared to $0.27 in the same period last year, with analysts expecting $0.64; the net profit for the second quarter was $16.599 billion, a year-on-year increase of 168%, exceeding analysts' expectations of $14.64 billion; the quarterly dividend per share remains unchanged at $0.01; an additional $50 billion stock buyback plan has been approved.NVIDIA also predicts that the gross margin for the third quarter may be lower than market expectations, and the revenue is generally in line with expectations. The company's stock price fell 3% in after-hours trading, but has risen over 150% so far this year.

ChainCatcher news, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock stated that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are premature, and recent rate cuts are inconsistent with the committee's thinking. The committee is indeed considering raising interest rates. They are prepared to raise rates if necessary. If the CPI does not meet expectations, there will be a rate hike.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, regarding Mt.Gox's plan to repay $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the repayment to creditors next month may not have as significant an impact on Bitcoin prices as many expect, but it will pose troubles for BCH. Currently, it is estimated that about half of the Bitcoin (worth approximately $4.5 billion) may start entering the market in July, but Sycamore believes that a large part of the so-called Mt.Gox selling pressure has already been reflected in the current market conditions, after all, "the repayments have been ongoing for a long time."Previously, the repayments occurred against a backdrop of deteriorating market sentiment, technical sell-offs, and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, and now, most of the speculative "hot money" in the cryptocurrency space has left to chase giant stocks like Nvidia and Apple in the stock market. Additionally, when discussing Bitcoin's price trends, Sycamore stated that he does not believe the current sell-off will lead to further declines, and the strong support of the 200-day moving average is one reason to remain optimistic in the coming weeks.Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn previously estimated that out of a total of 141,000 Bitcoins, only 65,000 could truly enter the market, which significantly reduces the expected selling activity.

ChainCatcher news, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on the X platform that the final allocation of tokens in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case will be less than people expect, and the Bitcoin sell-off triggered by Mt. Gox will be smaller than anticipated.According to his analysis, Mt. Gox lost approximately 940,000 Bitcoins at the time, worth $424 million, and has recovered 15% so far, which is 141,868 Bitcoins. Based on calculations, about 95,000 Bitcoins are expected to be used for claims payments, of which about 20,000 Bitcoins will be allocated to the claims fund, 10,000 Bitcoins will be allocated to Bitcoinica BK, and about 6,500 will be allocated to individual creditors (this number of 6,500 is far lower than the previously reported 141,868 by the media), thus the final number of tokens allocated for compensation will be below market expectations.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh consecutive time, in line with market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, analysts say that the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum options (a measure of future price movements) currently indicates that traders expect the market to be relatively calm in the coming weeks.Luuk Strijers stated: "The implied volatility level is 40, and the implied volatility percentile is 52. Both indicators are at moderate levels, showing that the market does not expect a lot of activity."Data shows that since mid-May, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has significantly decreased. Analysts at QCP Capital have also observed the same indicators of market sluggishness, noting that "despite the presence of widespread catalysts, the implied volatility has been absolutely suppressed following the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF."

ChainCatcher news, Tokeninsight released the "Crypto Exchange Annual Report 2023," which shows that Binance ranks first in market share, spot and derivatives trading volume. By the end of the year, Binance's market share was 48.7%, with spot and derivatives trading volumes at 53.7%, leading global crypto trading platforms. After experiencing significant regulatory events, Binance's performance exceeded market expectations.From the trends, it can be seen that after settling with multiple U.S. regulatory agencies, Binance remains firmly at the top of the industry, with a share leading the second place by 32.6%. These events did not have a huge impact on the market landscape like the FTX collapse in 2022, and traders still tend to choose safer centralized exchanges.