ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam released a community briefing indicating that current market participants are cautious about Bitcoin's short-term trend. Analysis shows that while traders maintain a long position in the long term, the market is expected to exhibit a volatile trend in the near term. The market is focusing on the $90,000 to $100,000 price range, especially the $95,200 support level.In the options market, traders are actively selling call options near $99,000 while maintaining bearish positions. Notably, the current options volatility is low, with the implied volatility of contracts expiring this week at 44%, and the market believes the current volatility is underestimated. Most traders are adopting range trading strategies in the $90,000 to $100,000 range, with some using a 9.6/100,000 ratio spread and laddered options structure for risk management.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.Live macro researcher Adam released a Chinese community briefing, which disclosed that the community generally holds a bullish attitude towards Ethereum, believing that after breaking through $2800, it is expected to challenge $4000.Some opinions suggest that breaking through $2750 under low liquidity over the weekend shows strong momentum, but there are also concerns about a potential pullback to $2600.The options market indicates a negative Gamma state within the $2700-$3900 range, meaning volatility may increase, and market makers need Delta hedging at the current position, suggesting that the upward trend may continue. In terms of market structure, the rapid rise lacks resistance.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Trump announced a "25% or higher" tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, which companies can avoid by relocating to the U.S. He also emphasized that U.S. auto exports are treated unfairly and announced tariffs on cars starting April 2. The U.S.-China AI competition has once again become a focal point, with DeepSeek seeking external financing, attracting attention from institutional investors like Alibaba, which may accelerate the competitive threat to U.S. AI giants.In the cryptocurrency sector, altcoins have gained attention since Trump's administration, with multiple altcoin ETF applications submitted to the SEC. Brazil has approved the world's first spot XRP ETF, which could propel the U.S. to become a global cryptocurrency hub.In the options market, there is strong demand for high Delta bullish Bitcoin options from February to April, with 25 Delta implied volatility leaning bullish, suggesting the market may be preparing for a second wave of a bull market. As inflation concerns ease, the S&P 500 hits new highs, and the dollar index retreats to 107, the macro environment increasingly supports risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the Ethereum options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, which may be related to the anticipated Pectra upgrade set to launch in early April.Looking back at history, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, with ETH surging before the upgrade and then retreating; while the initial performance of the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 was pessimistic due to supply concerns, ETH rose 30% after selling pressure did not materialize. The current market may be positioning for the Pectra upgrade, with options volatility leaning bullish after March 28, indicating potential upward expectations.However, the weakness in the altcoin market poses a restraining factor, with the LIBRA collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap nearing historical highs. The continued recovery of altcoins relies on substantial progress in real applications and network development, rather than just speculative funding.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April.Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH fell back after rising over 100% from the June low post-upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months.As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards call options after March 28—this could lay the groundwork for the next thematic play in the crypto market following the Trump tariff turmoil.One dampening factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share nearing historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development to sustain a recovery, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market continues to consolidate, Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to about 60%, nearing a four-year high, while ETH and other altcoins have continued to underperform. The analysis indicates that the recent "runaway" scandal involving Argentina's President Milei and the LIBRA project may impact the development of similar projects and suppress the performance of altcoins and meme coins.The report emphasizes that despite numerous uncertainties in the macro environment, the implied volatility of cryptocurrencies and the VIX remain low, indicating that the options market is waiting for specific policy changes rather than just focusing on positive rhetoric. Currently, most trading is concentrated on recent volatility selling or range trading, rather than betting on significant breakout trends.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that this week's macro aspects worth noting are the news from the US and Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a significant reason for the rise in commodity prices, and any changes in the situation could alter the current overall inflation logic.In terms of cryptocurrency, this week marks the opening of Consensus in Hong Kong, with many related conferences. At the same time, FTX will begin repaying creditors, which is also worth paying attention to. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has come into full effect, and compliant exchanges like Kraken are gradually delisting stablecoins like USDT in Europe.The cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with Bitcoin continuing to fluctuate below $100,000. The drama surrounding Milei's token issuance has exacerbated the downturn in altcoins, resulting in a weak wealth effect in the market and a very pessimistic sentiment. In options, the implied volatility (IV) for the full term continues to decline, with the at-the-money IV dropping to 45% this month, mainly driven by large traders adjusting their positions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, CoinGlass data shows that as of 10:35 AM UTC on February 16, over 70% of ETH options open contracts are call contracts.Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that the bullish positions indicate that investors hold a cautiously optimistic view on the mid-term appreciation of ETH. However, although ETH has not shown a significant recovery in the current cycle, the price is still about 44% lower than the historical high of over $4,890 set three years ago (November 2021).

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the current price trend of Ethereum (ETH) is similar to when it bottomed out last August, suggesting that a new round of increases may be on the horizon. Data shows that ETH has fallen 32% to $2,770 since mid-December 2024, significantly lagging behind Bitcoin's performance.Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, stated that despite market volatility over the weekend causing some funds to be liquidated, the demand for ETH in the over-the-counter market remains strong. Data indicates that net inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs reached $420 million this week, accounting for approximately 13% of the total inflows of $3.18 billion since their launch.In the options market, Deribit exchange has seen large bullish options trades, including a combination of call options with a strike price of $3,500 and a strike price of $5,000, expiring on December 26, 2025, indicating that investors are optimistic about ETH breaking through $5,000 by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital posted on the official TG channel stating that the crypto market is still experiencing rollercoaster-like volatility. With news that the U.S. will delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month, suggesting possible trade mediation, BTC briefly rebounded to $100,000. However, as China retaliated with new tariffs, the BTC price fell back to $98,000, and this relief was short-lived.Additionally, China has launched an antitrust investigation against Google, indicating that China is prepared to escalate tensions by targeting major U.S. tech companies. Any resulting sanctions or restrictions could pressure earnings and pose significant risks to risk assets.As BTC climbed to $100,000 last night, the market also reacted to Trump's directive for officials to create an executive order for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. While some see this as a potential new source of demand for Bitcoin, the details remain unclear—especially regarding how it will be funded. Currently, trade uncertainty continues to loom over the outlook, and as of March, the options market is maintaining a balance between put options and call options.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live analyst Adam released the market outlook for this week (January 27 to February 2). The upcoming Lunar New Year will lead to a temporary decrease in market influence from Chinese-speaking users. Despite frequent economic policy announcements from Trump during his first week in office, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week remains as high as 98%. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's interest rate decisions on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan's rate hike already implemented and expectations for continued rate cuts in the Eurozone.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above $100,000, and the cooling of the TRUMP meme market has led to a dispersion of market enthusiasm. The options market shows a significant decrease in uncertainty, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) dropping below 55% for the week, and the full-term at-the-money IV falling below 60%. Recently, there has been a large volume of institutional bullish options trades, but after the rate hike was confirmed, institutions began to significantly increase their short positions. The Bitfinex interest rate market is performing steadily, and it is recommended to actively monitor suitable interest rate orders during market fluctuations.In terms of regulation, new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit must improve their KYC processes to operate normally. Important events this week include: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision (22:45), Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (05:30) and European Central Bank deposit facility rate (21:15), as well as Friday's U.S. December core PCE price index (21:30).

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, after Trump did not mention cryptocurrency or Bitcoin in his inauguration speech on Monday, options listed on Deribit show a continued bullish outlook for Bitcoin relative to Ethereum. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to continue its downward trend. This exchange rate fell to 0.03 earlier this week, marking a three-year low.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on platform X that 22,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.95, a maximum pain point of $96,000, and a notional value of $2.19 billion. 182,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.36, a maximum pain point of $3,250, and a notional value of $610 million.Bitcoin's price has returned above $100,000, clearing the weekend's sluggish market sentiment, but altcoins are generally underperforming. In the options market, short-term implied volatility (IV) has increased, and bullish sentiment is clearly strengthening, with short-term price targets pointing to $105,000.Next week, Trump will officially take office as President of the United States, and the market is closely watching his cryptocurrency-related policies. In terms of the macro environment, U.S. stocks have recently warmed up, and the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the end of the month. Analysts suggest paying attention to changes in new government policies and ETF capital flows, and consider moderately allocating short-term options for tactical trading.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that the global market is digesting the impact of the adjustment in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to its highest level since the end of 2023 at 4.8%, with the market not expecting any rate cuts until at least October. Stock index futures opened down 1.5%, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $90,000, before rebounding to above $95,000.QCP Capital expects that the upcoming PPI and CPI data may present upward risks. The market is adapting to the reality of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, with some investors even considering the possibility of rate hikes. The Bitcoin options market shows cautious sentiment, with investors rolling over put options below the $90,000 support level, while near-month volatility and butterfly spreads remain elevated, and the VIX index stays at 18.68, suggesting that market volatility may persist into January.The report also notes that Trump may sign an executive order on his first day in office to address the issue of "de-banking" and repeal the controversial cryptocurrency accounting policy, which could bring positive catalysts to the market.

ChainCatcher news, Lin Chen, the Head of Asia Pacific Business at Deribit, posted on X that in the options market, the probability of ETH exceeding $4000 by the end of January is only 10.62%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.Live analyst Adam posted that Bitcoin has retraced after failing to breach the $100,000 mark, with ETF funds continuing to flow out. Trump is about to officially take office as President of the United States, but major speculative markets are filled with risk-averse sentiment, leading to significant declines in U.S. stocks. Next week (January 13 to 19), the market focus will be on the release of the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday. This will be the most important macro data before Trump's inauguration, and the market is now waiting for the various promises made by Trump to be fulfilled.In the options market, due to ample institutional margins, there is a large sell-off whenever there is an opportunity to sell, resulting in a noticeable decline in short- to medium-term implied volatility (IV). From the options trading perspective, large bullish options trades are active, mainly used to supplement institutional short positions, with January options being relatively undervalued and March options being relatively overvalued.In addition, new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures, with exchanges like Deribit needing to improve KYC to operate normally. In the interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has recently performed steadily, and it is recommended to actively trade at appropriate rates, especially during market volatility.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on social media that the differences in option Skew across various maturities have widened. Since the bull market at the end of this year, the Skew across maturities has been very close, fluctuating around 5%, with most differences not exceeding 1%.However, as we recently entered a correction, the differences have begun to widen, with short-term skew decreasing significantly. These data indicate that the market's enthusiasm has clearly diminished, and the optimism among options market participants for January has weakened.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on social media that the differences in option Skew across various maturities have widened. Since the bull market at the end of this year, the Skew across maturities has been very close, fluctuating around 5%, with most differences not exceeding 1%. However, as we recently entered a correction, the differences have started to widen, with short-term skew decreasing significantly.These data indicate that the market's enthusiasm has clearly diminished, and the optimism among options market participants for January has weakened.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on social media that after several days of adjustment, the market has once again reached a position of strong divergence. Currently, BTC is fluctuating below $100,000, ETH is fluctuating around $3,700, and most altcoins have seen a decline of over 20%.Currently, BTC options account for 80% of the open interest and trading volume in the options market, making them the most indicative. Today's large bullish options trading accounts for nearly 30%, mainly focusing on buying short-term strike prices of $100,000 and above, while actively buying protective puts for the end of the year also accounts for 10% of the trading volume.Currently, the short-term IV exceeds 60%, which is considered high. Institutions have strong expectations for volatility before Christmas, making it relatively cost-effective to buy some year-end options.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam posted on social media that after several days of adjustment, the market has once again reached a position of strong divergence. Currently, BTC is fluctuating below $100,000, ETH is fluctuating around $3,700, and most altcoins have seen a decline of over 20%.Currently, BTC options account for 80% of the positions and trading volume in the options market, making them highly indicative. Today, large bullish options transactions accounted for nearly 30%, mainly focusing on buying short-term strike prices of $100,000 and above, while actively buying protective puts for the end of the year also accounted for 10% of the trading volume.Currently, the short-term IV exceeds 60%, which is considered high. Institutions have strong expectations for volatility before Christmas, making it relatively cost-effective to buy some year-end expiration options.