ChainCatcher news, the cryptocurrency research institution EMC Labs published on platform X that yesterday BTC plummeted to $58,400, approaching the adjustment low from early May but did not break below it, re-testing the lower edge of the new high adjustment range, and probing the upward trend line formed since October last year. In addition, the trading volume effectively increased, indicating that there is a large amount of capital supporting the sell-off in the $58,000~$60,000 range.According to the eMerge engine, short-term traders as a whole have entered a state of unrealized losses, and yesterday they sold 28,000 BTC while in a loss position, realizing over $100 million in losses. Currently, the market fear & greed index has dropped to 30, entering the "fear" zone. Based on comprehensive technical indicators, support levels, and the situation of various market participants, EMC Labs determines that the mid-term adjustment of BTC is likely to have ended, and the market will rebound at $58,400. In the extreme panic situation yesterday, 9% of the top 500 cryptocurrencies have started to rebound, and these projects' trends can be a key focus in the future market.

ChainCatcher news, recently, the crypto asset research institution EMC Labs released the May 2024 report titled "Policy Factors Intensify, Buying Power Gathers to Find Breakthrough Points."The report points out: Along with massive chip exchanges and severe market fluctuations, coupled with the delay in interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin channel in May was only $341 million, far lower than the $8.9 billion and $7 billion in March and April. In contrast, the fiat funds in the ETF channel saw outflows on 5 out of 22 trading days in May, while recording net inflows on 17 trading days, with a total net inflow of $1.905 billion for the month, significantly higher than the $341 million in the stablecoin channel. In May, the Nasdaq index rebounded strongly, recovering all losses from April. The funds in the BTC ETF channel are currently more influenced by the Nasdaq index, and under the weak on-site funding conditions, its dominance over BTC prices is strengthening. Thus, the upcoming Nasdaq performance influenced by tech stocks may become the most significant factor determining BTC price trends.

ChainCatcher message, the cryptocurrency research institution EMC Labs released the April 2024 report titled "Macroeconomic Financial Crisis Emerges, On-Site Funds Remain Motionless." The report points out that the decline of BTC in April was a result of a weak balance between buyers and sellers after a portion of investors sold off following its price surge in July. New incoming funds are choosing to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, while traders who base their transactions on macroeconomic data and technical indicators dominate the market.From the perspective of the inflow scale of stablecoins (the second highest since last year), the market's bullish sentiment has not extinguished. The current adjustment is due to the macroeconomic phantom crisis causing incoming funds to hold their positions and wait. Accordingly, macroeconomic data, especially the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts and changes in core economic data such as non-farm employment rates, will dominate the attitude of on-site funds in the near future, thereby determining the price trend of BTC, as the market enters a "buy and sell macro data" mode.

ChainCatcher news, the cryptocurrency research institution EMC Labs stated today that although the absolute number of Bitcoin's fourth halving is less than previous halvings, its actual proportion of effective circulation may exceed 30%, which will trigger a significant supply deflation effect in the next four-year cycle.According to EMC Labs' calculations, the absolute number of BTC in the fourth halving on April 20 is 164,000 coins/year, while the halving number four years ago was 328,000 coins/year. However, due to the reduction of BTC held by centralized exchanges, which determine BTC's short-term pricing power, from 3.06 million coins in the previous cycle to 2.29 million coins, the annual reduction accounts for 7% of short-term liquidity, which has not proportionally decreased compared to 10% in the previous cycle. The total reduction over four years accounts for 28% of short-term liquidity, and considering that the amount held by centralized exchanges will continue to decline, this figure may actually exceed 30%. Additionally, as the proportion of long-term holders has increased by 14% compared to four years ago, the combined effect of these two factors makes the supply deflation impact of this halving significant.EMC Labs stated that this halving has reduced BTC's annual inflation rate to 0.8%, and they believe that the pattern of a super bull market occurring within 18 months after the halving will reappear.

ChainCatcher news, EMC Labs released the March report indicating that investors began large-scale selling on February 26, leading to a decline in Bitcoin prices. The sell-off was divided into two phases: in the first half, the price rose from $51,730.96 to $71,475.93, while in the second half, the price fell to $60,771.74. Overall, sellers locked in nearly $63.1 billion in profits.The report suggests that the selling pressure is weakening, signaling the end of the first wave of large-scale sell-offs in the bull market, laying the groundwork for the next phase of price increases. This wave of large-scale selling before the halving has cleared a significant amount of profit-taking positions, raising the cost basis of BTC, which will help in the price increase in the next phase. For long-term investors, it is advisable to take a cautious yet proactive approach to go long.

ChainCatcher message, the encrypted fund management company EMC Labs stated on platform X that during the cyclical trend, whenever BTC enters a bull market and reaches a new high, long-term holders (long-term investors) who hold most of the issued BTC begin to take profits. A profit ratio exceeding 70% of the total market value of BTC is a key point. Around this time, a large amount of chips being sold often overdrafts purchasing power in the short term, leading to a phase adjustment in the market.This cycle is similar to 2017. In 2014, on March 6, the profit ratio reached 71%, and the adjustment began, lasting until March 24, for a total of 18 days, with a magnitude of -27.32%. This adjustment started on March 13 when the profit ratio reached 72% and lasted until the 20th, for a total of 7 days, with a magnitude of -27.70%. Spatially, it has basically reached its limit, but temporally, it is still insufficient.According to EMC Labs engine monitoring, the peak of chip selling has passed, and the inflow scale (intended for sale) on exchanges has significantly decreased, returning to a steady outflow. Based on the above, the bull market is still ongoing, and a good buying point has emerged.

ChainCatcher news, the crypto fund management company EMC Labs released a report in February 2024 titled "The Birth of the Fifth Round of the Crypto Asset Bull Market." The report points out that: in February, BTC rose by 43.79% in a single month, marking the largest monthly increase since 2023. From the perspective of stablecoin inflow scale and technical indicators, the driving force behind the violent surge mainly comes from ETF channel funds. EMC Labs believes that the market structure of BTC is undergoing a historic change, with its short-term price power having shifted to financial institutions on Wall Street. The strong price increase this month is a manifestation of this transfer of power.

ChainCatcher news, recently, the crypto fund management company EMC Labs released a report titled "Solving Problems, Starting a Bull Market" for January 2024. The report points out: In January, $4.9 billion flowed into stablecoins, making it the month with the highest net inflow since last year, resulting in a 4% increase in the overall supply of stablecoins. Additionally, following December, USDT and USDC recorded net inflows again, amounting to $4.5 billion and $2.2 billion respectively, with USDC setting a monthly inflow record since 2023. This synchronized inflow indicates that investors from different regions are increasingly optimistic about the market outlook.The record-breaking incremental funds could have pushed the BTC price above the resistance level of $48,000, but the concentrated selling pressure triggered by the approval of the BTC ETF, valued at over $4 billion, curtailed the willingness of incremental funds to go long. The optimistic aspect is that the funds in the stablecoin channel have not retreated, which serves as a material support for the market's upward movement.

ChainCatcher news, Victory Securities announced that the compliance Bitcoin fund Victory EMC BTC Cycle Fund, launched in collaboration with EMC Labs, has received official approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). The fund is open to qualified professional investors and employs data mining and industry research as the basis for active cyclical allocation to Bitcoin.It is reported that this move marks the fund as the first virtual asset fund in Hong Kong to receive SFC approval and accept subscriptions in USD stablecoins (such as USDC or USDT).