U.S. Treasury Bonds

"Fed's megaphone": The Federal Reserve is considering adjusting its balance sheet reduction plan to address the debt ceiling challenge

ChainCatcher news, according to Wall Street Journal reporter and "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, Federal Reserve officials will consider adjusting their $6.8 trillion asset reduction policy. For the past three years, the Fed has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities accumulated during previous stimulus programs, including measures to stabilize the market during the pandemic in 2020.Currently, the Fed may choose to pause or slow down this tapering process. This move aims to avoid a repeat of the situation in 2019, when balance sheet reduction led to stress in the overnight funding market, forcing the Fed to pivot and expand its holdings.Roberto Perli, the executive in charge of overseeing the balance sheet at the New York Fed, stated this month that pausing the tapering would be a "tactical decision" that "would not change the ultimate goal." RBC Capital Markets interest rate strategist Blake Gwinn pointed out that pausing the tapering makes sense because "the debt ceiling will distort these signals."Currently, the Fed allows up to $25 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without reinvestment. As holdings decrease, bank reserves also decline. However, the debt ceiling issue could interfere with this process, as the Fed is also the government's banker.Analysts expect that the Fed may pause the tapering for several months until the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance before resuming. Gwinn stated that if the economy worsens, this "pause" could also turn into a "stop," prompting officials to terminate this form of policy tightening.

Buffett's Shareholder Letter: Will always invest the vast majority of funds in stocks, last year the value of traded stocks held fell to 272 billion dollars

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Buffett published his annual shareholder letter, in which he mentioned that the value of tradable stocks held last year decreased from $354 billion to $272 billion, but the value of non-listed equity holdings increased and remains far above the value of the tradable stock portfolio. We will always invest the vast majority of their funds in stocks—mainly U.S. stocks, although many of these companies have significant international operations. Berkshire will never be more inclined to hold cash equivalents and give up holding equity in quality businesses, whether controlling or partial stakes.In 2024, Berkshire's performance exceeded expectations, despite 53% of its 189 operating companies reporting a decline in earnings. Due to the increase in U.S. Treasury yields, there was a significant increase in holdings of these highly liquid short-term securities, resulting in a foreseeable substantial increase in investment income.Berkshire has been continuously increasing its borrowings denominated in yen, but not following any fixed pattern. All borrowings are at fixed rates, with no "floating rate" borrowings. There is no forecast for future foreign exchange rate trends, thus striving to maintain a nearly neutral position in terms of currency.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has increased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims increased last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 30 was recorded at 224,000, compared to 215,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had previously expected the number of initial jobless claims for the most recent week to be 215,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to 1.87 million, down from 1.90 million the previous week. The data indicates that while initial jobless claims have risen, they remain relatively stable. The November employment report will be released on Friday. Analysts expect that after the October employment data was affected by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the November employment report will show a significant recovery in employment.After the U.S. initial jobless claims data suggested a potential softening in the labor market, U.S. Treasury yields lost some momentum, and the dollar weakened, which strengthened the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Last week's initial jobless claims were 224,000, higher than the expected 215,000. The non-farm payroll numbers for November, expected to be released tomorrow, are projected to jump from 120,000 in October to 214,000. The trade deficit for October narrowed to $73.8 billion, in line with expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.208%, while the 2-year yield was at 4.161%, both higher than yesterday.
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