ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital analysis pointed out that President Trump suspended his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this week and promised to significantly reduce the high tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%, leading to a warming market sentiment. Bitcoin responded by rising, reaching as high as $94,500 during the day, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, and briefly surpassing Google's parent company Alphabet to become the fifth largest asset in the world.Institutions continue to increase their positions, further solidifying Bitcoin's market capitalization status. The $95,000 call options are actively traded, indicating that the market is betting on further upward movement. Current market sentiment is overheated, and in the short term, it may fluctuate in the range of $90,000 to $94,500, waiting for a catalytic event to break through $100,000.

ChainCatcher news, the encrypted investment institution QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin broke through $87,000 in the early Asian session, reversing the sell-off triggered by Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement. This rebound stands in stark contrast to last December's "Christmas rally." At the same time, gold has also risen to new highs due to the trade war and a weakening dollar. Against the backdrop of a declining stock market and an expanded drop in April, the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe-haven or inflation-hedging tool has gained renewed attention. If the trend continues, it may provide new momentum for institutional allocation to Bitcoin.Signs of institutional confidence returning have emerged, with a net inflow of $13.4 million into Bitcoin ETFs last week, contrasting with a net outflow of $708 million the previous week. The options market has shown more balanced positions, and the risk reversal indicator is stabilizing. As Europe is still on holiday, the market may need a few days to confirm the trend, and the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and the stock market is worth close attention. Currently, the focus is on the key resistance level of $88,800, and a cautious stance is maintained before any breakout.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released its daily market observation stating that after a week of tariff edge policies, risk assets have begun to stabilize, breaking free from barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-U.S. trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, escalating to a level where the market is no longer surprised by further intensification. The enormous scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven factors, contrasting sharply with the panic triggered in the early days of "Liberation Day."After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted the latest tariffs on smartphones, computers, and chips. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimistic sentiment, even as the U.S. seems to be negotiating not only with China but also with the bond market and itself.In the crypto market, Bitcoin's risk reversal remains biased towards bearish options until June, indicating that the market still appears somewhat cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, possibly continuing to trade sideways while adopting a "wait and see" strategy regarding the tariff situation.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that Trump announced on Wednesday a 10% tariff on all imported goods and launched a "reciprocal tariff" policy targeting countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., reigniting global trade tensions.As a result:BTC fell from an intraday high of $88,500 to $81,200, a decline of over 8%The cryptocurrency market saw massive liquidations, with long positions liquidated exceeding $221 millionU.S. stock futures plummeted, with Nasdaq futures down 4.28% and S&P 500 futures down 3.38%Consumer stocks with high supply chain exposure were hit hard, with American Eagle plunging 17.47%The market is currently focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Amid expectations of an economic slowdown, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement four rate cuts in 2025, with cuts of 25 basis points each in June, July, September, and December.In the options market, short-term volatility remains high, and demand for downside protection has increased, reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, analysts believe that a rebound may occur in the short term as risk assets are generally oversold.

ChainCatcher news, QCP recently released a market analysis stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index have just recorded their worst quarterly performance in three years, with the cryptocurrency market capitalization evaporating by over $160 billion since Friday. The pullback on Friday was attributed to the expiration of quarterly options, leading traders to actively sell, causing perpetual contract funding rates to turn negative. Meanwhile, core inflation data came in higher than expected, and consumer spending remains sluggish.The market is paying attention to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy on April 2. Against the backdrop of consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low and the stock market experiencing a weekly decline of 4-5%, aggressive tariffs may exacerbate recession fears. However, if the policy measures are less aggressive than expected, it could provide some relief to the market. In terms of volatility, the VIX remains at a high level of 22, while cryptocurrency volatility is declining. Trading desks indicate a bullish sentiment dominating before the Asian market opens, with investors buying upside options and selling downside risks.Although April has historically been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, the market outlook remains cautious, potentially digesting macro risks in a sideways consolidation. Key events this week include ISM data, non-farm payroll reports, and Powell's speech.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that as volatility further declines, risk assets continue to rise.Since briefly falling below $77,000 last week, BTC has surged 15%, while other cryptocurrencies have generally outperformed the market during the same period. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a focal point of attention.Trump hinted at further tariff measures before the April 2 deadline; however, the market remains unclear about the scope, timing, and scale of these potential actions. It is expected that there will be more sideways fluctuations before this, with BTC having further growth potential in the short term, as GameStop (GME) has added Bitcoin to their treasury.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's analysis, believes that the recent stock market rally is a tactical rebound brought about by asset managers reallocating risk assets, rather than a shift based on any macro fundamentals.The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains a focal point for the market. Trump hinted at more tariff measures before the April 2 deadline. However, the market still lacks a clear understanding of the scope, timing, and magnitude of these potential actions. Before this, we expect the market to continue exhibiting sideways fluctuations.In the digital asset space, we believe that Bitcoin has room for tactical performance advantages in the short term. Surprisingly, GameStop has incorporated Bitcoin into its balance sheet. While this is not the first instance of corporate adoption of cryptocurrency, GameStop's symbolic significance as a "meme stock" may reignite retail investors' speculative enthusiasm. As the market performance in 2021 reminded us, if coordinated, retail capital flows have the ability to challenge institutional investors' positions.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital published an analysis stating that one of the fastest declines in the U.S. stock market may have passed, with JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists telling their clients that improved market sentiment and historically favorable seasonal factors are working together.Boosted by Trump's comments on tariff exemptions, BTC briefly broke through $88,000, leading to a short-term market rebound. Although the second quarter is typically one of the strongest periods for risk assets, the options market remains cautious, with bullish skew expected to become evident only in June. Investors are focused on this Friday's quarterly options expiration and the upcoming PCE inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that last week, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was 8,775 Bitcoins (approximately $744 million), reversing the previous trend of net outflows for several weeks.Driven by this influx of funds, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound over the weekend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively breaking back above $85,000 and $2,000. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index improved from 32% last week to 45% this week, indicating a relief in market risk aversion sentiment.Analysis shows that this rebound is mainly driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, as the open interest in perpetual contracts remains sluggish and funding rates stay stable. However, QCP maintains a cautious attitude towards sustained upward breakthroughs, reminding investors to pay attention to the upcoming tariff escalation on April 2, which may put pressure on risk assets.

ChainCatcher message, Bitcoin rebounded over 5% from below $83,000 after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, briefly breaking above $87,000.QCP Capital analysts pointed out that trader sentiment is turning bullish, as call options have become more expensive, or there is higher demand for calls compared to puts, contrasting with earlier this week. However, Amberdata's derivatives director Greg Magadini believes that macro uncertainty still exists, and the options skew may shift back to bearish. (Note: The so-called "skew" refers to the difference in volatility between put and call options in the options market.)

ChainCatcher news, QCP published on its official channel stating that last night's FOMC meeting brought a long-awaited bullish catalyst to the market, pushing Bitcoin prices to break through $85,000 with a significant increase. The Federal Reserve decided to start tapering its "quantitative tightening" plan from April. The market interpreted this as an indirect rate cut, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may begin easing policies as early as June.As of the writing of this article, the market anticipates three rate cuts in 2025, scheduled for June, September, and December. Aside from the current excitement, the Fed's tone is noticeably cautious. Policymakers have lowered the economic growth forecast to 1.7% (a reduction of 0.4 percentage points), while raising the inflation forecast to 2.8%, indicating that the risk of stagflation is rising. Additionally, the Fed's dot plot shows a more hawkish shift compared to last December, with the number of officials expecting no rate cuts in 2025 increasing to four.In the options market, market positioning has returned to normal, with skew shifting back towards call options. This contrasts sharply with earlier this week when skew was leaning towards put options. The key test now will come when the U.S. market opens tonight.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that it has been exactly one month since the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, and the market frenzy that once dominated Wall Street and Main Street, along with the narrative of American exceptionalism, has faded. Market sentiment has clearly shifted, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?"The latest victims of the market downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds, which were forced to stop losses during this month's plunge. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two teams, while Brevan Howard's flagship fund has dropped 5% year-to-date, prompting it to impose stricter risk limits on traders. For these traders, the music has not completely stopped, but it is undoubtedly slowing down.The biggest near-term risk is the upcoming April 2 deadline, when Trump is expected to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most direct resistance facing risk assets. Tonight's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, QCP Capital will closely monitor any dovish shifts, particularly regarding changes in growth and inflation expectations. Given that the impact of tariffs takes months to ripple through the economy, the Fed is expected to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. While the tariff decision on April 2 has already been hinted at, it remains a key uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that although the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this Wednesday is extremely low, any dovish signals from Powell could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the U.S. shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending driving growth) to deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the burden of policy has shifted back to monetary policy. While QCP does not expect an unexpected rate cut from the Federal Reserve, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market.Macro volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index retreating to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also decreased, currently oscillating within the $80,000 to $85,000 range. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitical issues have returned to focus. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation.Historically, cryptocurrency prices tend to lag behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the possible policy shift from the Federal Reserve and a new round of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may welcome a new round of upward trends after this adjustment.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale opened a short position of $400 million, with an average entry price of $84,000 and a liquidation price of about $86,000. This triggered market volatility on Sunday, as some trading groups attempted to force the liquidation of this highly leveraged 40x position, which only required a 2.5% price movement. Nevertheless, the position remains open and has incurred nearly $400,000 in funding fees.The report indicates that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32% (in the fear range), reflecting a persistent risk-averse sentiment, especially considering the overall negative sentiment in the stock market. This further reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge tool. For instance, last Friday, the BTC-17MAR25-80k-P options were actively bought 300 times, clearly aimed at hedging against weekend volatility risks.Despite the ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing stronger resilience compared to the stock market. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning due to renewed concerns about an economic recession. This stems from comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's U.S. retail sales data to further clarify whether the 0.9% decline in January retail sales is the first signal of a slowdown in consumer spending or merely a pullback following a strong end to the 2024 holiday season.The report suggests that as the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week's lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided temporary relief, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to a dovish stance immediately. Given the ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, QCP Capital expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, as the market seeks any clues about the Fed's next moves, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's policy shifts, market volatility may remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital analysts point out that this week could be a historic milestone as the White House will hold the first-ever crypto summit. However, without any specific executive orders, funding commitments, or congressional support, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Crypto investors may view the summit as an asymmetric event, and it remains to be seen whether it will serve as an unexpected catalyst for a price surge or reveal the vulnerabilities of cryptocurrencies and trigger a deeper sell-off.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP Asia analysis, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility this week, with BTC rising to 94K before falling back to 83K, currently fluctuating around 88K. The market is influenced by macro factors such as Trump's reserve plan, the escalation of the US-Canada-China trade war, and tariff adjustments, closely following stock market fluctuations.This Friday will see the first White House crypto summit, but lacking specific policy support, market sentiment is cautious, and investors are watching whether it will act as a price catalyst or trigger a larger sell-off.In addition, the high-yield spread of US bonds has widened to 290bps, and the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast has turned negative to -2.8%. The market is focused on Friday's non-farm payroll data and next week's CPI to assess the macroeconomic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the brief market rebound following Trump's announcement of a cryptocurrency reserve plan on Truth Social on Sunday quickly faded, with risk assets generally pulling back and erasing most of Sunday’s gains. Trump's renewed push for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China intensified the sell-off, reinforcing investors' concerns about escalating trade tensions.The analysis indicates that the unexpected inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA tokens in the reserve plan has sparked divisions within the crypto community, with initial optimism about the project's advantages shifting to a more in-depth examination. Current doubts mainly focus on potential contradictions between the plan and DOGE cost-cutting measures, as well as the lack of transparency regarding the sources of reserve funds.QCP Capital states that this market decline may exacerbate the pressure Trump faces, especially after receiving strong support and donations from the crypto community during his campaign. Even the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspending and withdrawing enforcement cases against crypto companies has failed to stop the market sell-off, highlighting a broader risk-averse sentiment.The report notes that after a month of low cross-asset volatility, market anxiety has resurfaced due to the prospect of tariff confrontations potentially suppressing global growth. This shift is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping 50 basis points over the past two weeks, the VIX surpassing 22, and Bitcoin's short-term volatility sharply rising by 8 points since the weekend, with a significant skew towards bearish options.Previous news, Trump's launch of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve may be aimed at boosting approval ratings, with the market focusing on Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that after a turbulent week, the market has returned to the starting point of last Monday. Over the weekend, Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve. While some market participants believe this news has already been priced in, others see it as the only catalyst to drive cryptocurrency innovation to new highs later this year. Unexpectedly, Trump used this "lifeline" in advance, pulling the Bitcoin price back above $90,000 during the low liquidity period on Sunday.QCP Capital notes that for a president proud of being a market hero, last week's performance of risk assets was disappointing. The new round of tariff policies and the less-than-expected progress in the Russia-Ukraine talks have shaken investor confidence. Although the timing of the strategic reserve announcement was unexpected, the political considerations are clear—Trump needs a win to prevent a decline in approval ratings, which is a metric he personally values highly.Despite encouraging signs of recovery in risk assets, the market has not fully returned to normal. Bitcoin is still trading near the bottom of its multi-month range, front-end cryptocurrency volatility remains relatively high, and major cryptocurrencies continue to show a bearish skew until the end of March. The VIX fear index is also at a high level, indicating widespread unease in the market regarding overall risk assets, especially after the recent announcement by the U.S. government to raise tariffs.Key events this week include Wednesday's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), Friday's non-farm payroll data, and Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit. The latter will be an important event, expected to reveal key details about the U.S. cryptocurrency reserve and regulatory framework.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Asia released a market observation on February 25, with the following content: "Bitcoin has finally broken out of the range-bound trading, falling below $90,000 for the first time in a month, currently hovering below that level, triggering over $200 million in liquidations in the past few hours.Following Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investments, market sentiment remains under pressure. As Bitcoin prices decline, short-term options hedging activities have increased, with the 1-month implied volatility now rebounding to 50, while the options skew interestingly remains largely unchanged.From a more macro perspective, despite data previously thought to lead to broader market weakness, the stock, fixed income, and gold markets have largely absorbed these impacts, while Bitcoin remains range-bound. The increase in Bitcoin's market cap and the decline in altcoin prices suggest that altcoin bulls may be fully invested, with any new dollar inflows only directed towards Bitcoin.We maintain a cautious stance. Recent Bitcoin demand has mainly been driven by institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, which are financing through the issuance of stock-linked notes. Considering that cryptocurrency-related issuances have accounted for about 19% of total issuances over the past 14 months, this financing market may be nearing saturation—this could suppress (future performance)."