Interpretation of Trump's New Tariff Policy: A Blow to the World, Is Web3 a Threat or an Opportunity?
------The Logic Behind the Global Market Turbulence in 2025 and a Survival Guide for Financial Markets
On April 3, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to officially launch a global "reciprocal tariff" policy, in addition to a baseline tariff of at least 10% on indiscriminate families.
What is a reciprocal tariff? A four-character comment: simple and brutal. Whatever tariff other countries impose on U.S. products, the U.S. will impose half as punitive tariffs in return, adding to the existing base tariff rate. For example, if China's average tariff on U.S. goods is 67%, the U.S. will add 34%, resulting in a total tariff of 54%; for countries that only impose a 10% tariff, the U.S. will add only 5%. Whether allies or adversaries, all are treated equally.
According to a White House announcement, the 10% baseline tariff will take effect after midnight this Saturday (the 5th), while higher reciprocal tariffs are expected to take effect after midnight next Wednesday (the 9th). This buffer period is also intriguing.
Trump has always given the impression of being a madman + fool. On the surface, this tariff policy seems to reflect the typical "businessman president" logic of not losing out. But if you think of Trump this simply, you are mistaken. This policy is not a hasty move, but a systematic strategy aimed at reconstructing the global trade order, alleviating the U.S. debt crisis, and consolidating the dollar's hegemony.
I. New Tariff Policy: Trump's "Indiscriminate Attack"
This new tariff policy is not only a shockwave to global trade but also a reshuffling of geopolitical and economic power. The Trump administration has set a one-week buffer period, which serves as a "quick-cutting" method for camp division—current world conditions have entered a globalization era, with significant changes in technology and economy, leading to a chaotic world order where some countries rise amid the turmoil while others rapidly decline, and various forces have ambiguous attitudes towards the U.S.
Thus, the U.S. first establishes a stringent "reciprocal tariff," followed by a buffer period. If you want to become a "partner" of the U.S., then you should come to negotiate during the buffer period; since it is a reciprocal tariff, it means tariffs can be mutually reduced; while those countries that do not compromise during the buffer period naturally become the U.S.'s "hostile parties." In this way, the originally chaotic world is quickly streamlined into an extremely simple bilateral opposition pattern.
In any ecosystem, if you want to win, "the strong seek stability, the weak seek change" is always the truth. After seeing this, do you still think Trump is just a fool + madman?
As for the other goals of this tariff policy, it may be to fill the fiscal deficit with tariff revenue, alleviate the current pressure of over $36 trillion in national debt, and reserve space for subsequent dollar liquidity actions. Additionally, by creating tax pressure, the U.S. also intends to force domestic companies to return, rebuilding the image of a "manufacturing powerhouse." Although economists generally believe that high taxes, a strong dollar, and the return of manufacturing are difficult to achieve simultaneously, Trump clearly values the "sense of achievement" within the election cycle more.
II. Trump's Real Calculation: Hegemony, the Dollar, and the "Prisoner's Dilemma"
For a long time, the U.S. has been trapped in the "Triffin Dilemma"—when a country's currency also serves as an international reserve currency, it can lead to conflicts between domestic short-term economic goals and international long-term economic goals. Specifically, to maintain the dollar's global currency status, the U.S. needs to maintain a trade deficit, but excessive debt can trigger a credit crisis.
We all know that Trump is extremely inclined to inject liquidity, so why increase tariffs this time? This tariff strategy is to temporarily raise the strength of the dollar, forcing other countries' currencies to depreciate through tariffs, and then moderately release dollars at the right time, so the relative value of the dollar does not decrease, allowing the U.S. to enjoy global goods without collapsing its credit. Indeed, as soon as the tariff policy news was released, the dollar quickly appreciated, so even if it injects liquidity and depreciates in the future, it will still be within an acceptable range. If other countries do not have good countermeasures, their currencies will depreciate in this process, with the yuan, euro, and other major currencies likely bearing the brunt.
With the rise of regional economic organizations like RCEP and the African Free Trade Area, the U.S.'s global discourse power is being eroded. Trump is creating a bilateral "prisoner's dilemma," forcing countries to submit individually, thereby dismantling multilateral cooperation structures. Mexico's rapid agreement under tariff threats is a direct result of this strategy.
Additionally, he may have some selfish motives. Trump's team aims not to establish a long-term stable structure but to win voter favor before the midterm elections in 2026 through visible indicators like "manufacturing return" and "trade deficit reduction," which has been a tradition in U.S. politics.
III. Impact on the Web3 Market: Short-term Pain and Long-term Opportunities
As soon as the new policy was announced, the market experienced severe turbulence. Bitcoin fell 3% within 24 hours, and Ethereum dropped 6%. The crypto ETF saw a net outflow of $8.7 billion in a single day, while gold surpassed $3,150 per ounce, becoming the most popular safe-haven asset.
Despite the short-term disadvantages, this new tariff policy may bring structural benefits to Web3:
First, the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold may be strengthened. We have previously written that, within the framework of monetary finance, Bitcoin, like gold, serves as a means of value storage, while stablecoins like USDT and USDC serve as mediums of exchange like the dollar. In other words, Bitcoin does not directly compete with the dollar but should be compared to gold.
Regardless of how the dollar moves in the future, it is clear that it will cause considerable chaos in the world economic structure, primarily framed by various national currencies. At this time, Bitcoin will not directly replace the dollar's position but will serve its role as a means of value storage, fixing the value that economic entities hold in an economic system that is chaotic and uncertain due to fiat currency instability, thus becoming a safe-haven asset.
However, one issue is that Bitcoin and gold serve the same function in the economic system, and the current chaos in the global market has already shown that under extreme policies, investors still prefer traditional safe-haven channels like gold, leading Bitcoin to lose in competition with gold.
My view is that everything follows the law of inertia; gold remains the most recognized means of value storage in mainstream financial markets. But it is precisely because of this that Bitcoin has development potential. I have previously written that if we only consider physical characteristics, Bitcoin is more suitable than gold as a means of value storage because:
Its total supply is more fixed;
It is easier to store.
Its main shackles lie in regulatory and compliance issues. However, coincidentally, it is Trump who has listed Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve and introduced a series of pro-crypto policies, seemingly paving the way for Bitcoin's compliance while causing significant turbulence in the crypto market, as the saying goes, "Success and failure are both due to the same factor."
This is the first point, viewed from the economic structure. There is also a second point, viewed from the cross-border market.
If traditional cross-border payments encounter high tax obstacles, companies may choose stablecoins or cryptocurrencies for settlement to avoid the dollar system. Could the crypto industry's pain point of "Mass Adoption" also be resolved under the massive application scenarios of stablecoins inadvertently increased by Trump? It's hard to say, but there is an opportunity.
Conclusion: The Sober Ones in Chaos
Trump's global tariff policy is both a severe shock to trade systems and an extreme test of market faith. Countries around the world are forced to take sides, traditional financial markets are in turmoil, and the crypto market cannot remain unaffected. However, "volatility" does not mean "doom"; rather, it may give rise to historic opportunities under a new order. As Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said, "When market panic subsides, crypto assets will eventually return to fundamentals." In times of crisis, rationality and foresight are the true trump cards for navigating through chaos.
(Risk Warning: The crypto market is highly volatile; investment should be cautious.)
