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BTC $70,948.34 -2.61%
ETH $2,187.15 -2.73%
BNB $591.84 -2.33%
XRP $1.33 -1.60%
SOL $81.67 -3.61%
TRX $0.3226 +1.31%
DOGE $0.0907 -2.23%
ADA $0.2384 -3.98%
BCH $422.83 -3.60%
LINK $8.72 -3.35%
HYPE $40.90 -2.40%
AAVE $89.39 -3.25%
SUI $0.9008 -3.78%
XLM $0.1507 -2.42%
ZEC $361.64 -3.81%

whales

Analysis: In the 6 weeks of the US-Iran conflict, the Bitcoin market has shown divergence, with institutions continuing to buy while whales and mining companies accelerate their sell-off

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

Bitcoin may drop below $60,000, and the return period could extend to 2027, with increased selling pressure from whales intensifying downside risks

According to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin further falls below $60,000, the time for the market to recover to historical highs may be delayed until 2027.Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025. According to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period is extended by an average of about 80 days. If $60,000 is the bottom for this phase, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to drop to the $40,000-$45,000 range, the overall retracement will exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027.On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12-0.15), indicating that there is still room for further downside. In terms of capital flow, the continued selling by whales is intensifying pressure. Data shows that the selling intensity by large holders has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further delay the recovery pace of the cryptocurrency market.
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