ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs economists predict that due to tariffs and policy uncertainty putting pressure on the economy, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter will grow only 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, business and consumer surveys indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has not yet shown signs of this. They infer that economic indicators may begin to more clearly reflect a recession in the late summer. "The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the previous 'event-driven' growth slowdown. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data."

ChainCatcher message, according to a report by CryptoQuant, shows that before Trump's speech, investors transferred more Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP to trading platforms, indicating an increased willingness to sell. In the hours following Trump's speech, the single-block transaction volume of Bitcoin also surged. In the U.S., Bitcoin deposits on Coinbase have also increased, especially from large holders.Similarly, the inflow of ETH to trading platforms peaked at around 80,000 ETH within 1 hour. The amount of XRP transferred to Binance jumped to 130 million within 1 hour, while for most of the previous day, it was less than 10 million XRP per hour.CryptoQuant stated that the increase in inflows to trading platforms reflects investors' willingness to close positions amid rising economic uncertainty. As traders liquidate long positions to take profits, the demand for Bitcoin and ETH in the perpetual futures market has decreased. However, as adverse factors fade, new economic data to be released later on Friday (non-farm and unemployment reports) may provide momentum for a short-term market rebound.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in response to whether the Federal Reserve is concerned about new government officials suggesting changes to key indicators such as GDP and the dissolution of the Economic Advisory Council that the U.S. economic data provided by government agencies like the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce is crucial to the Federal Reserve's mission and is the "gold standard" in the world.

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute trader Jake O stated on social media that the cryptocurrency market can no longer trade in isolation and is currently in a macro-driven market environment.Jake O pointed out that this trend has repeatedly appeared throughout the market cycle, although it is not persistent, especially when the market fear index (VIX) is above 20. In this market environment, investors should pay extra attention to U.S. economic data and the dominant narratives in the market—currently mainly focused on tariff issues, which will drive marginal capital flows.

ChainCatcher news, last week, the final value of the U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for February recorded 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee downplayed this data result.In an interview on Sunday, Goolsbee stated that this number "is not good," but he added, "But this is just one month of data; we need at least two or three months of data to make it count."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the crypto market rebounded after the release of the US CPI data. Presto Research analyst Min Jung stated, "The initial CPI reaction was strong, but as investors took a more cautious approach, realizing that more data is needed to confirm inflation trends, the market rebounded."BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas attributed the market recovery to trading bots responding to the stability of macroeconomic conditions, "Algorithmic trading plays a significant role in these rapid movements, with many bots programmed to react instantly to keywords related to Powell, CPI data, and other major economic reports. Given the recent volatility driven by clearing, any stability in macro conditions could trigger positive buybacks, especially from these automated strategies."Lucas explained that the market seems to be shaking off tariff-related concerns and digesting the latest CPI data, as prices are rising without prominent bullish catalysts. "Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have responded positively to the stability of macroeconomic conditions, and if liquidity conditions remain supportive, the market may be preparing for the next leg up."

ChainCatcher news, organized by Jinshi, several financial institutions have expressed their views on the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting:Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected to remain on hold this month, taking a wait-and-see approach on interest rate cuts, doubting that Powell would want the FOMC to take a more hawkish stance at this stage.Nordea Bank: It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and wait for more data and information regarding President Trump's policies, with two rate cuts anticipated in May and September 2025.PIMCO: The Federal Reserve may "keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future," and may even raise borrowing costs, as officials are waiting for clarity on Trump's policies.Goldman Sachs: This meeting is not expected to provide much new information and is unlikely to offer forward guidance for policy action in March, with rate cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in June and September this year.Bank of America: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, as economic data stabilizes, and may raise expectations for the labor market. Powell may retain maximum flexibility for the March policy decision.ING: It is expected that there will be no change in monetary policy. The rapid rise in government bond yields has significantly increased borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, predicting three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.Rabobank: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, anticipating that Powell will take a cautious stance on further rate cuts while avoiding questions about the impact of Trump's policies on the Fed's rate path.JPMorgan Chase: It is expected to keep rates unchanged, without ruling out the possibility of action at the March meeting, focusing on whether and how the Fed will incorporate Trump's policies into its policy deliberations.Farm Credit: It is expected to maintain rates unchanged, with little likelihood of a hawkish surprise, and attention should be paid to how the Fed views the combination of Trump's policies and their impact on inflation and economic growth.EY: Data shows a robust economy, with inflation proving more stubborn than expected. It is expected to pause rate cuts this week to retain more options for further adjustments to the federal funds rate this year.

ChainCatcher news, the X account @WallStreetMav with millions of followers tweeted, stating "Trump has won, they are altering all the data from the Biden administration. The government initially reported that 653,000 jobs were added in the second quarter of 2024. This is actually a negative number. Last year's jobs were also revised to 800,000. Falsified data trying to help Biden/Harris. Now that Trump is elected president, they may portray the economy in a negative light."Musk responded under the X, asking "How can the data system be so bad?"

ChainCatcher news, UBS stated that the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move will be guided by economic data. Although major global markets have reacted negatively to changes in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle next year, the Fed will continue to monitor economic conditions and various data before taking any action.UBS said, "We believe that the Federal Reserve still relies on data, and future economic indicators will continue to play a crucial role in determining the Fed's next steps." Key indicators such as the Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE inflation, will play a critical role in shaping central bank policy, with data set to be released this Friday. However, UBS expects inflation to slow in the coming months, which could impact the Fed's policy outlook. Additionally, employment data will remain an important factor as the Fed assesses the strength of the labor market and the overall resilience of the economy. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday), some economic data and events in the U.S. will be released earlier.In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. and the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released earlier at 21:30 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday), and the monthly PCE inflation data, which is favored by the Federal Reserve, will be released earlier at 23:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday). In terms of events, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting will be released earlier at 03:00 Beijing time on November 27 (Wednesday).

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Economic data does not indicate an urgent need to cut interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the U.S. non-farm data for October is weak and below expectations, partly affected by hurricanes and strike events. The hurricane forced a large number of people to evacuate and significantly reduced the response rate of business surveys, leading to a sharp decline in employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors, with a surge in the number of people unable to work due to weather conditions. Strikes have also led to a noticeable shrinkage in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may reverse in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling down, with no signs of rapid deterioration.Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with monetary policy continuing to normalize, but the pace of rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions based on economic data from 2025.

ChainCatcher news, last week the U.S. September CPI and PPI data were released one after another, sending somewhat mixed signals to the market. However, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist, and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has almost become a certainty.According to 4E monitoring, last Friday's unexpectedly flat PPI data led to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices hitting intraday all-time highs. Last week, the Dow rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 gained 1.11%, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.13%, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains for all three indices. The cryptocurrency market followed the rise in U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin climbing back above $62,000, closing at $62,659, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.82%. Ethereum was reported at $2,455, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.47%.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound last week, rising 0.4%, leading to declines in most non-U.S. currencies. Affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices rose for the second consecutive week, with U.S. oil gaining 1.6% over the week and Brent oil rising 1.3%. The fluctuating dollar also drove spot gold further towards its historical high, with a slight increase over the week; COMEX gold futures were reported at $2,674.2 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 0.04% for the week.This week, U.S. economic data is relatively calm, and corporate earnings reports may become a bigger focus. As the new earnings season kicks off, U.S. stocks may face tests. Recently, the most dangerous news for the cryptocurrency market is the possibility of the U.S. government selling 69,000 Bitcoins (approximately $4.2 billion). Additionally, with only a few weeks until the U.S. elections, the tight election situation adds a lot of uncertainty to the market.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy once again highlighted unexpected resilience, alleviating market concerns about the economy. At the same time, boosted by China's unexpected policy measures, global financial markets surged.According to 4E observations, the three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 index closing up 0.40%, reaching a new historical high; the Dow Jones rose 0.62%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.60%. Chinese concept stocks soared, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 10.9%. Non-U.S. currencies generally rose, while the yen resumed its downward trend; cryptocurrencies surged across the board, with Bitcoin up 2.56%, breaking through $65,000, and Ethereum rising 0.96%.Gold, silver, and copper all soared, as major central banks such as those in the U.S. and China cut interest rates, coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold's intraday gains expanded to 1%, once again setting a new historical high, up nearly 30% this year; under China's stimulus policies, silver, a key industrial material, rose over 2.5%, reaching a 12-year high, and has increased 37% year-to-date.With global central banks cutting interest rates in succession and China's "policy package" igniting global optimism, combined with resilient U.S. economic data, investor risk appetite has risen. 4E is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. This Friday evening, the U.S. core PCE price index will be released, providing further key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets appropriately.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Birgit Henseler, an analyst at the German Central Cooperative Bank, stated that there is still a divergence in the money market regarding the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, which is expected to be between 25 basis points and 50 basis points, but there are several reasons indicating that the Federal Reserve should not take significant action.In a report, she stated, "Neither the labor market data nor the recently released inflation rate shows any signs that a substantial rate cut is necessary." Henseler said that the state of the labor market indicates an economic slowdown rather than a recession, and the core inflation rate has recently proven to be more stubborn than many market participants expected, due to rising housing and other service costs.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that economic data supports multiple rate cuts and has seen more warning signs regarding the labor market.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the U.S. ISM August Manufacturing PMI report released today shows that the U.S. economy continues to contract. Based on the Federal Reserve's implied probabilities from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), affected by the weak data, traders have increased the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 30% a day ago to 39%. However, the favored bet remains a 25 basis point cut at 61%.The main event in U.S. macro news is still Friday's August employment report, which could also be the final deciding factor for the Federal Reserve's rate hike of either 25 or 50 basis points. Economists predict that job gains will rebound from 114,000 in July to 160,000. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on social media that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference clarified the Fed's interest rate cut in September. There is currently a consensus on a 25 basis point cut, but if economic data pressures are significant this month, a 50 basis point cut is also possible. The clear commitment to rate cuts has given the market great confidence, leading to a rebound in major cryptocurrencies, although the subsequent trend still carries a lot of uncertainty.This week, there are several important economic data releases, as well as speeches from several key figures, primarily focused on the Fed's rate cut in September. Additionally, Russia's cryptocurrency legislation is also worth paying attention to, as crypto begins to take center stage.ETH has remained sluggish since the Cancun upgrade, with Gas now below 0.8 Gwei. The significant reduction in ETH consumption has caused the deflationary flywheel to fail, and currently, there seems to be no opportunity for an ETH exchange rate rebound, making the bearish ratio a good value for money.Key Events This Week:8/27 Tuesday2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks8/28 WednesdayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaks8/29 ThursdayInitial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook8/30 FridayU.S. July Core PCE Price Index Year-on-YearU.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on monetary policy and economic outlookRussia will begin implementing the digital currency cross-border payment law and the legalization of cryptocurrency mining legislation