ChainCatcher news, the betting amount on the U.S. election on the prediction market Polymarket has surpassed $2.1 billion.Data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is currently reported at 60.1%, while Harris's probability of winning is reported at 39.9%, with a gap of over 20 percentage points between the two.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the betting amount on the U.S. presidential election results on Polymarket has exceeded $2 billion. As of October 17, Republican candidate Trump has a betting amount of nearly $608 million on Polymarket, with a winning probability of 62.3%; Democratic candidate Harris has a betting amount of $405 million, with a winning probability of 37.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, based on data from the CFTC website, the prediction market Kalshi has launched more than a dozen event contracts related to U.S. political outcomes. As of October 16, Kalshi's flagship market "Who will win the presidential election?" has reached a total betting amount of $14 million since its launch on October 7.Kalshi's scale still lags far behind the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which has nearly $2 billion in betting amounts related to the U.S. presidential election.

ChainCatcher news, according to Lookonchain monitoring, the whale "Fredi9999" has spent $938,000 on Polymarket in the past 12 hours to purchase 1.59 million "Yes" shares betting on Trump's victory. Currently, this whale holds 16.62 million "Yes" shares, worth approximately $9.9 million.

ChainCatcher news indicates that the betting amount on the U.S. election on the prediction market Polymarket is nearly $1.9 billion. Data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is currently reported at 55.8%, while Harris's probability of winning the election is currently reported at 43.7%.

ChainCatcher news, the probability of predicting Trump winning the U.S. presidential election on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to a two-month high of 55.5%, while the probability of Vice President Harris winning has dropped to 43.9%, further widening the gap between the two.In addition, the betting amount on the November election on Polymarket has exceeded $1.6 billion.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that the U.S. economic data for October is strong, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on November 8 have significantly decreased. Currently, based on the 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market's expected probability for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting is 85%, while the probability of no rate cut is 15%, which is significantly lower than last month.At the same time, in recent days, the probability of Trump being elected president has been rising significantly, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump. From the options data, the market's volatility expectation for October is very low, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) already below 45%, while the at-the-money IV for the expiration on November 8, one week later, is 55%. This indicates that most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market, and continuing to observe is the current mainstream sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the federal appeals court ruled that the prediction market platform Kalshi can continue to launch contracts to allow election betting.In an opinion submitted to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, Judge Patricia Millett ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) failed to demonstrate that "if the appeal is not stayed, the public will suffer irreparable harm."Since the CFTC stated at the end of last year that Kalshi could not offer contracts related to "Congressional control contracts," the CFTC and Kalshi have been in litigation.

ChainCatcher news, according to the "Procuratorial Daily," the methods used to assist information network criminal activities are constantly changing, and telecom network fraud cases triggered by virtual currencies occur from time to time.In June of this year, the suspect Yang logged into the black and gray market trading platform "Huiwang" through a chat software and joined a chat group for buying and selling the virtual currency "U Coin." Subsequently, Yang, Jin, and He jointly invested 220,000 yuan, with Yang purchasing virtual currency from a "U Merchant" in the group at a price three cents lower than the platform trading price, storing it in the "U Merchant's" account to receive tasks. The so-called tasks involved helping the "U Merchant" sell "U Coin" and collect the sales funds. On June 8, under the instruction of the "U Merchant," Yang, along with Jin and He, collected 220,000 yuan in cash from the victim Gao by selling "U Coin," and then placed the 220,000 yuan cash at a location designated by the "U Merchant." The "U Merchant" then transferred the payment in the form of "U Coin" to Yang's "U Coin" account, with the three of them earning a total profit of 3,800 yuan.The report states that in our country, buying and selling foreign exchange must be conducted at state-designated locations; otherwise, it constitutes illegal foreign exchange trading, and those with serious circumstances will be held criminally responsible. Therefore, prosecutors remind investors not to easily trust others for the sake of small profits, withdrawing large amounts of cash from banks to purchase virtual currencies. They should remain rational, strengthen risk prevention awareness and identification abilities, stay vigilant against virtual currency scams, and stay away from illegal fundraising.

ChainCatcher News, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stated that the CFTC will continue to argue that Kalshi's election contracts are illegal and warned of potential negative impacts.Last week, a court ruled that the CFTC overstepped its authority in opposing the listing of election-related contracts by Kalshi, and the CFTC has appealed. Behnam believes that allowing the CFTC to regulate election contracts could lead the agency to become involved in investigations of election-related fraud or manipulation, which exceeds the CFTC's mandate.He also stated that the CFTC is closely monitoring overseas prediction markets that serve U.S. customers, and will take enforcement action if any violations occur.Previously, the prediction market Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC for not being registered, agreeing to exit the U.S. market.

ChainCatcher news, article from the official WeChat account of the Intermediate People's Court of Jinchang City. Recently, the Yongchang Court in Gansu, China, ruled on two cases involving telecom fraud, sentencing ten defendants to prison terms ranging from ten months to one year for the crime of assisting in information network criminal activities, and recovering illegal gains of over 1.19 million yuan.According to reports, since 2022, a certain Shen has illegally profited by raising funds to purchase computers, IoT cards, and other equipment, recruiting Li, Chen, and four others to join, and additionally recruiting more than ten people to successively rent houses in Hefei, Anhui, to establish a USDT (Tether) trading studio. They formed illegal over-the-counter trading groups through the Telegram app, buying low and selling high for profit. During this period, the five repeatedly took risks, knowingly helping telecom fraudsters settle payments between Tether and RMB at "high exchange rates," despite being aware that the U coins they received originated from online gambling and telecom fraud. Meanwhile, Shen also contacted downstream "coin traders" like Li to settle payments through methods designated by upstream criminals, using Alipay, WeChat transfers, and cash deposits. By the time the case was reported, the defendants had profited over 880,000 yuan, with more than ten victims, including residents like Meng from Chengguan Town in Yongchang County, losing over 5.9 million yuan while participating in virtual currency investments and online order brushing, with the funds all transferred to accounts related to Tether trading used by Shen and others.The court held that in this case, Shen and others used virtual currency trading activities to assist telecom network fraudsters in transferring funds, which has moved beyond mere virtual currency operations. Such behavior should be included as a key link in the comprehensive crackdown on telecom network fraud and illegal criminal activities, and the involved criminals should be punished.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, New York Congressman Ritchie Torres believes that U.S. regulators should not attempt to ban election betting contracts, but should focus on regulating these contracts to prevent bad actors from gaining market share.In a recent letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam, Ritchie Torres wrote: "I urge the Commission to consider developing a plan to regulate these markets, rather than preventing them from existing in regulated markets. If the CFTC collaborates with regulated registrants to enhance the integrity of elections and protect consumers from the dangers posed by the widespread adoption of illegal and unregulated election markets, it will be more effective."

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that the Bank of Canada has just announced a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with market expectations. The U.S. stock market continues to decline at the opening, with leading company Nvidia having dropped 20% in a week. The crypto market has also been dragged down by macro factors and the U.S. stock market, experiencing continuous declines recently. Therefore, the employment data in the next couple of days is worth paying attention to. If the economic data is weak, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month will be on the table, which would be beneficial for stopping the decline in both the U.S. stock market and crypto.However, from the options data, currently, except for the U.S. election week, the implied volatility for other maturities remains relatively stable. Crypto market whales have not bet on significant fluctuations this month, generally believing that the market will be relatively stable.

ChainCatcher message, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, the predicted probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to 53%, surpassing Harris.Three days ago, someone registered on Polymarket and withdrew 205,000 USDC from Binance to purchase 417,252 shares of the "yes" option for Trump winning the U.S. presidential election.Now, the user has made a profit of $15,000 as a result.

According to ChainCatcher news, the official website shows that the prediction market PolyMarket has launched a new political category section. Currently, betting activities related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election occupy the top positions on the platform's leaderboard, with the U.S. presidential election betting activity ranking first with $559 million in betting funds.Polymarket is a decentralized information market platform that allows users to trade on the most controversial topics in the world (such as coronavirus, politics, current events, etc.).

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, five U.S. senators and three House representatives have once again called on the CFTC to ban betting on the 2024 presidential election.In a letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Benham dated August 5, they stated that such a market "could affect and interfere with elections, further undermining public trust in democracy," urging the swift finalization and implementation of this regulation to prevent the commodification of U.S. elections.The letter was signed by Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Chris Van Hollen, Elizabeth Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, as well as Representatives Jamie Raskin, John Sarbanes, and Eleanor Holmes Norton.

ChainCatcher news, Bitlayer has announced the launch of a limited-time betting event for the 2024 Paris Olympics in the user center. Users can participate in multi-round event outcome betting using Bitlayer points or gems, and winners will share the points or gem rewards from the corresponding event prize pool. The specific time for this event is from August 2 to August 11 (UTC+8).The newly launched Olympic limited-time betting event is divided into two categories: points prize pool and gem prize pool. Users can spend 500 points or 200 gems to participate in a single bet, with a maximum of 10 participations per event, and there is a unique winning option. Winners will share the corresponding points or gem rewards based on their participation ratio. Each competition will be synchronized within 12 hours after the corresponding event results are announced, and the prize pool settlement will be completed. This limited-time betting event is a preliminary exploration of the use cases for Bitlayer gems and points. In the future, the team will introduce more interactive activities and reward mechanisms to ensure users have a richer experience within the Bitlayer ecosystem.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, within a week of President Joe Biden stepping down as the Democratic candidate, his running mate Kamala Harris has effectively doubled the chances of the Democrats taking the White House, rising from 18% to 38%. Harris's progress in the Polymarket poll seems to be due to small individual bets entering the market.However, Trump supporters appear to be more confident: the top five holders on the "yes" side of the Trump contract collectively hold 9.1 million shares, which would turn into a $9.1 million payout if Trump wins. Meanwhile, the top five holders on the "yes" side of the Harris contract collectively hold 4.7 million shares. Overall, the amount bet by traders on Polymarket regarding the presidential election outcome has reached $423 million.