Disaster Becomes a Betting Game? Polymarket Sparks Controversy Again with "California Wildfire Prediction Market"

Original Title: Polymarket faces backlash over 'sick' California wildfire markets
Author: Protos Staff
Translator: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: The article criticizes the prediction market platform Polymarket for the controversy sparked by users speculating on the California wildfires. In the context of wildfires that have resulted in multiple deaths and the evacuation of hundreds of thousands, users are callously betting on the disaster's progression, with some prediction pools reaching as high as $100,000. This act of "gamifying" public disasters has raised strong moral objections.

The following is the original content (reorganized for readability):

The "Gamification" of Wildfires Sparks Outrage

Polymarket is currently facing widespread criticism for its "disgusting" prediction markets, as the platform allows betting on the ongoing California wildfires.

The wildfires broke out on Wednesday in the Hollywood Hills and quickly spread throughout Los Angeles. So far, five deadly wildfires have led to the evacuation of over 137,000 people, with 5 unfortunate fatalities reported.

Many Polymarket users have taken the opportunity to create multiple prediction markets regarding the spread of the fire, when it will be contained, and potential resignations of political figures. Some markets have seen trading volumes nearing $100,000.

However, many netizens are not buying into these markets or Polymarket's promotion. One user on the X platform bluntly stated, "Betting on wildfires is truly sick." Another user expressed that betting on such a tragedy is "in any case an unacceptable shameless act."

Some users are even more concerned that the wildfire prediction markets might encourage gamblers to commit arson to increase their chances of winning bets. One user pointed out that the odds in these markets are entirely based on gamblers' emotions, responding to Polymarket's post by stating, "No, there is no such thing as a '48% chance it will spread'; it's just that 48% of people are betting it will happen."

For Polymarket, such strong opposition is not new. Last year, during the Titan submersible market, the platform faced similar criticism for allowing users to bet on whether the submersible would explode and result in the deaths of 5 passengers.

To mitigate its liability across at least 10 different wildfire markets, Polymarket added a brief disclaimer claiming it utilizes "crowd wisdom" to create "accurate and objective event predictions." The statement reads: "The devastating Pacific Palisades wildfire is one such event, and Polymarket is able to provide valuable real-time answers to those directly affected in a way that traditional media cannot."

It is worth noting that if you are truly affected by the wildfires, it is more reliable to rely on news organizations that report on the events rather than crypto prediction websites.

Crypto Companies Near the Fires

In addition to threatening millions of California residents, the rapidly spreading wildfires pose a serious threat to several crypto companies and well-known community members. Many have already lost their homes and belongings, including valuable hardware wallets.

Employees at the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office are located directly south of the Palisades and Sunset fires. Swan Bitcoin, which previously hosted the Pacific Bitcoin conference in Santa Monica, also has several employees in the southern fire zone.

Blockchain service provider BlockDaemon is headquartered in Los Angeles, alongside another crypto game developer, SuperVerse. The blockchain-based identity verification and tokenization company SpringLabs is located nearby in Marina del Rey.

Some companies are relatively lucky. So far, the Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles has not been affected by the fires. Additionally, the crypto entertainment venues DaBank and Jungla in Hawthorne and North Hollywood have also not been impacted by the wildfires.