bearish

Viewpoint: The ETH/BTC exchange rate may drop another 30%, with fundamental factors also supporting a bearish outlook

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have warned that the ETH/BTC exchange rate may further decline in the coming weeks. Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani described the current situation as a "falling knife" scenario, indicating that it is experiencing a rapid and steep decline, which typically discourages buyers from entering too early. The "falling knife" metaphor suggests that attempting to "catch the knife" when one believes the asset is at a low point can lead to greater losses, especially when the downward trend continues.Technically, the relative strength index (RSI) on the ETH/BTC two-week chart has fallen to a historical low of 23.32. While an RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition that may trigger a rebound, Ethereum's RSI has continued to decline for two months after being oversold, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing. If it cannot rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, ETH/BTC may continue to drop to the 0.020-0.016 BTC range, representing a further decline of about 30% from the current price.Fundamental factors also support a bearish outlook. Ethereum faces strong competition from rivals like Solana, with VanEck data showing that Solana's decentralized exchange trading volume has surpassed that of Ethereum. Additionally, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted traditional cryptocurrency market cycles, with $129 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 draining liquidity from the altcoin market, including Ethereum.
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