ChainCatcher news, BitMEX Chief Growth Officer Raphael Polansky stated on X that despite many cheering for a market rebound, one of the macro indicators favored internally at BitMEX, the RRP, shows signs of continued tightening liquidity this month. Historically, RRP has been inversely correlated with Bitcoin's performance. A high RRP is typically bearish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, Santiment posted on X that since mid-August, there has been a noticeable decline in crypto whale transactions.Bitcoin: The number of transfers over $100,000 has decreased by 33.6% since the peak in March/April;Ethereum: The number of transfers over $100,000 has decreased by 72.5% since the peak in March/April.Analysis states that this is not necessarily a bearish signal. Whales remain active in both bull and bear markets. However, it does indicate that during times of extreme greed or extreme fear, large key stakeholders continue to wait for the right moment to take the next step.Since Bitcoin reached its all-time high six months ago, reactions to medium-sized fluctuations have been very strong. According to sentiment patterns, a return of Bitcoin to $70,000 could be accompanied by a lot of FOMO, while a drop to $45,000 could lead to severe FUD.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, the analysis and research platform Block Scholes stated in a new report that the implied volatility levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum options have significantly increased across different expiration dates. This surge is particularly evident in short-term options, indicating a rise in recent uncertainty.Analysts noted that the derivatives market is clearly leaning towards out-of-the-money put options for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term. As spot prices struggle to recover from recent declines, this trend suggests an enhanced bearish outlook in the short term. Some aggressive traders may look to buy call options expiring at the end of September, when uncertainty is expected to ease.

ChainCatcher message, cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo stated that the inflow of Bitcoin (Germany, MtGox, Department of Justice) is gradually being absorbed. Paper Bitcoin trading is declining, which is a good sign. Overall, from a supply perspective, the situation has shifted from bearish to neutral.

ChainCatcher message, Zhu Su stated on platform X that the current market lacks bearish reasons:Macroeconomic concerns are fading;Peace in Gaza is approaching;The summer off-season is ending;We are welcoming greater trading volume and liquidity;People are familiar with the saying "cycle rotation";The release date of CZ is near;Bitcoin is close to $60,000, and the chart looks good.

ChainCatcher news, well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo shared the five major macro signals for Bitcoin that he is closely monitoring, three of which are bullish and two are bearish.Bullish signals:The miner capitulation phase has ended, which is one of the most reliable bull market indicators.Hashrate is recovering, with the price and hashrate bottoming out in sync with the new generation of hardware upgrades.Global liquidity is starting to expand, benefiting traditional finance's purchase of risk assets like Bitcoin.Bearish signals:The increase in spot exchange coin volume, including the transfer of 50,000 BTC from Mt. Gox to Kraken.The upcoming launch of Ethereum spot ETFs, which may lead to some funds being transferred from Bitcoin ETFs.Woo believes that, overall, bullish factors outweigh bearish factors. He points out that in the short term, Bitcoin only needs to break through $73,000 to potentially trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price to $77,000, after which it will enter a price discovery phase.

ChainCatcher news, Santiment posted on X that after an astonishing rebound in Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market over the past two weeks, bearish sentiment on social media has significantly decreased. As Bitcoin approaches $70,000 again, the voices that predicted an impending bear market in early July have largely disappeared.

ChainCatcher news, a survey conducted by CoinGecko over the past two weeks (from June 25 to July 8) involving more than 2,500 people shows that when asked about their current views on the cryptocurrency market, 49.3% feel "bullish" or "somewhat bullish." About 25% believe they are "bearish" or "somewhat bearish," while roughly another 25% express a "neutral" stance—neither expecting the market to rise nor fall.Among the four types of survey participants (investors, traders, builders, and spectators), spectators are the most pessimistic about cryptocurrency, with two-fifths indicating some level of pessimism.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts say that as Bitcoin's price has recently pulled back, traders' demand for downside protection has increased, which is reflected in the rise in the number of put options.According to data from Deribit, the put/call ratio of Bitcoin options open interest expiring on Friday has risen above 1, which is seen as a bearish signal for the market. A ratio above 1 means that the number of put options traded significantly exceeds that of call options. This indicates that more investors are betting on or hedging against a price decline rather than a price increase."The increase in Bitcoin options open interest is mainly due to the rise in open interest of relatively bearish put options, which aligns with the recent price pullback of the asset, as Bitcoin options traders have increased their downside bets and hedges. The surge in the put/call volume ratio and a one-month 25-Delta skew indicate a significant increase in demand for downside protection," ETC Group wrote in the report.The report also noted that the implied volatility of Bitcoin options has increased during the recent decline, with the current implied volatility of at-the-money Bitcoin options for one month being around 50.5%. "The term structure of volatility is now also inverted, with the implied volatility of short-term options significantly higher than that of long-term options, which is often a sign of extreme bearishness in the options market," ETC Group analysts added.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, multiple institutions are bearish on Microstrategy's stock, with short positions reaching $6.9 billion. However, the confidence of short sellers seems to be waning, as Microstrategy's stock price has nearly doubled in six months.The largest position is approximately $2.4 billion. The short ratio of MicroStrategy stock has decreased from 3.1 days to 1.5 days over the past six months, a reduction of nearly 50%.Kerrisdale Capital believes that after several spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved this year, investors may have no reason to trade MicroStrategy stock for Bitcoin exposure.

ChainCatcher message, Kryptanium Capital founder Daniel Yan stated on the X platform: "The risk tonight is to the upside. I will closely monitor 3 tokens: BTC, NEAR, WIF. If either the CPI month-on-month or the core CPI month-on-month is 0.3% tonight, then bullish. If both figures reach 0.4% or higher, then bearish."