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Trader Eugene: The recent structural decline of active developers is concerning, and the crypto market is陷入 a self-reinforcing cycle in the short term

ChainCatcher news, trader Eugene posted, "The introduction of global trade tariffs marks a change in the world order that has not been seen in over 50 years. Free trade has always been a key factor driving productivity and economic growth, contributing to the largest long-term bull market in history. The shift from openness to a protectionist stance will have profound effects, which will take years to gradually manifest, unless Trump completely abandons his tariff plans. I think the likelihood of that is very low. This will pose significant long-term resistance to global risk assets.In terms of cryptocurrency, the recent structural decline in active developers may be the most concerning thing. In the last cycle, we could observe developer activity and feel reassured because we knew our industry was still benefiting from long-term tailwinds. Fast forward 2-3 years later, and we have not produced anything particularly interesting or important, and the outlook for the future is even worse than it was then.In the last cycle, we looked forward to the launch of ETFs and a better regulatory environment under government support for cryptocurrencies as a light at the end of the tunnel. Now that these have been realized, but (once again) have failed to meet expectations, I see no future that can free cryptocurrency from its inherent 'Ouroboros' (self-circling, self-consuming dilemma).In the coming weeks to months, I hope to reduce operations in the cryptocurrency space, whether bullish or bearish, as I believe this is the wisest choice. Being a believer waiting for a new bull market is no longer contrarian thinking. However, starting to explore new greenfields (undeveloped areas) is indeed contrarian.For me, the only bright spot is that the use cases and global acceptance of Bitcoin are stronger than ever, which may encourage believers to continue hoarding Bitcoin and achieve decent returns (I hope so). The idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin by 2035 is not a fantasy in my view."
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