Wall Street

Wall Street works overnight for the U.S. election and seeks support from Asia, preventing riots and major changes in "Trump trade" positions

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, the outcome of the U.S. election, which could significantly impact policy direction, is uncertain, and Wall Street is on high alert. Trading desks will have staff on duty overnight, and teams in Hong Kong and Singapore are arranged to assist. The "Trump trade" of going long on the dollar and shorting bonds may increase positions or be quickly closed out. Some institutions are taking unprecedented measures for this election. A London-based hedge fund has prepared a "world-shocking" computer model for this moment. Some banks are preparing for the risk of social unrest, no matter how distant that risk may seem; if it materializes, it would shake the U.S., the world, and global financial markets. JPMorgan plans to increase staffing in Europe and Asia to handle overnight trading and volatility; Goldman Sachs expects hundreds of sales and trading teams to work late into the night in New York, with more people ready to work from home.Employees across the industry in the U.S. are preparing for overnight work. As Harris and Trump make their final push to rally voters, American society is polarized, and the election is so tightly contested that the financial industry is simulating potential impacts. Currently, the market believes Trump will win. The stock market is rising, and both the dollar and cryptocurrencies are up. Bond yields are climbing. If Harris ultimately wins, the "Trump trade" could quickly reverse, leading to significant market volatility overnight.

Many analysts on Wall Street expect the Federal Reserve to cautiously implement its first rate cut

ChainCatcher news, many analysts on Wall Street still expect that the Federal Reserve's first step towards interest rate cuts will be more cautious. "I hope they cut by 50 basis points, but I suspect they will cut by 25 basis points," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "They have already completed the tasks of achieving full employment and returning inflation to target, and a fund rate around 5.5% is too high. Therefore, I think they need to quickly normalize rates and have plenty of room to do so.""Jeffries' U.S. economist Tom Simons said, "While the tightening policy seems effective, it hasn't worked out exactly as they imagined, so easing should be viewed as equally uncertain." "Therefore, if you're uncertain, you shouldn't rush." Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated, "I guess they have differing opinions." "From a risk management perspective, some committee members just want to be more cautious." Seema Shah, an analyst at Invesco, said that for the Federal Reserve, it ultimately comes down to deciding which risk is greater—if they cut by 50 basis points, it could reignite inflationary pressures, while cutting only by 25 basis points could lead to an economic recession. Criticized for being too slow to respond to the inflation crisis, the Federal Reserve may take a passive approach to the risk of recession rather than a proactive one. (Jin Shi)

Bloomberg: Wall Street giants are optimistic about potential opportunities in the crypto custody space, awaiting election results and regulatory clarity

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, so far, crypto-native companies like Coinbase Global Inc. and BitGo Inc. have been the dominant service providers, while traditional financial firms mostly remain in a holding pattern due to concerns over regulatory uncertainty surrounding digital assets.Although the current custody market is only about $300 million, the business remains attractive, with companies like Fireblocks Inc. estimating an annual growth rate of around 30% for the industry.Leading custody banks such as BNY Mellon, State Street Corp., and Citigroup Inc. have begun to dip their toes into the cryptocurrency custody space or have expressed interest. Despite facing setbacks, these companies are experimenting, with many plans focused on the protection of tokenized assets.For example, JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates a project called Onyx, which allows blockchain payments between bank clients. In December last year, a custody trust and clearing company acquired Securrency to provide products for tokenizing traditional financial assets. In August of this year, State Street chose the vendor Taurus for the tokenization and custody of digital asset services.One major issue hindering the entry of established financial institutions is a U.S. SEC regulation known as SAB 121, which prevents highly regulated financial companies from offering cryptocurrency custody services. President Biden vetoed efforts by Congress to overturn the rule. Several banks have received exemptions.
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