RSI

4E: Trump's tariffs are about to take effect, and the market is on high alert, with risk aversion rising

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, Trump's reciprocal tariffs are imminent, and U.S. stocks opened lower due to heightened risk aversion in the early session. However, Chicago PMI data exceeded expectations, boosting risk sentiment, and coupled with quarter-end rebalancing trades, U.S. stocks narrowed their losses during the day, ending with mixed results among major indices. The S&P 500 rose by 0.55%, down 5.75% in March, and down 4.59% for the quarter; the Dow Jones increased by 1.00%, closing down 4.20% for the month, and down 1.28% for the quarter; the Nasdaq slightly fell by 0.14%, plummeting 8.21% in March, and down 10.42% for the quarter. Tech stocks were generally sluggish, with the "Tech Seven Sisters" index dropping 14.83% in the first quarter, led by Tesla down 35.83%, followed closely by Nvidia down 19.29%.The cryptocurrency market fluctuated narrowly, with Bitcoin rebounding to $84,000 under the boost from U.S. stocks, but retreated after the market closed, reporting $82,781 at press time, up 1.18% in 24 hours. After recording an 18% drop in February, it ended March with a further decline of 3.5%. Ethereum returned above $1,800, after a heavy drop of 32% in February, it fell another 18% in March, disappointing market expectations and resulting in very negative market sentiment.In the forex and commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, rising 0.18%, with a cumulative decline of 3.15% in March and a cumulative decline of 3.94% for the quarter; geopolitical tensions escalated, with U.S. oil rising over 3.05%, accumulating over 3.08% in March and up 1.39% for the quarter. Funds rushed into safe havens, with spot gold rising 1.25% to $3,145, hitting a new high, accumulating a 9.33% increase in March and an 18.48% increase for the quarter.Global major assets are affected by Trump's tariffs, and his erratic attitude exacerbates market uncertainty about future expectations. As the tariff liberation day approaches, the market feels increasingly uneasy, which may further amplify market volatility.

4E: Tariffs and inflation squeeze, risk aversion rises, focus this week on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" and non-farm data

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the data released last week has heightened market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Increasing signs indicate that due to worries about tariffs driving up inflation, U.S. consumer confidence has significantly declined, spending has decreased, and long-term inflation expectations have risen. U.S. stocks fell sharply last week, ending the strong rebound from the previous week. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.53%, the Dow Jones by 0.96%, and the Nasdaq by 2.59%. The Magnificent 7 index of tech giants dropped by 2.95% last week.The cryptocurrency market followed the U.S. stock market's downward trend. Bitcoin started the week by rising close to $89,000, but then fell back under pressure from Trump's tariff news, with Friday's PCE data further exacerbating the decline. As of the deadline, it was reported at $81,884, down 4.46% over the past 7 days. Other major tokens generally fell, with Ethereum dropping below $1,800, nearing new lows. Market sentiment remains gloomy and may continue to be under pressure until Trump's tariff actions become clearer.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell by 0.05% last week; risk assets were suppressed by safe-haven demand, while geopolitical tensions supported some bottoming out. Oil prices rose by about 2% last week, and gold has increased for four consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high, with spot gold surpassing $3,100.Last week's weak data reignited economic concerns, leading to a comprehensive decline in financial markets. As Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" loom on April 2, market nerves are frayed, and safe-haven sentiment is rising. Additionally, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for March will be released this Friday evening, followed by a speech from Powell. The Federal Reserve held steady in March, and the market is looking forward to Powell's further insights on the U.S. economy, inflation, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies, seeking new clues for the direction of the Fed's monetary policy and more reliable guidance for the market direction in April.
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