Tariff Policy

4E: Trump ignites recession panic, U.S. stocks and crypto markets plummet simultaneously

ChainCatcher news, Trump's remarks over the weekend about the U.S. economy facing a "transformation period" weakened investors' confidence in a policy shift amid the backdrop of a market crash, exacerbating economic concerns.According to 4E monitoring, on Monday, all three major U.S. stock indices plummeted, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7%, marking a new closing low since September last year; the Dow Jones dropped 2.08%, erasing gains since the U.S. elections in November; the Nasdaq fell 4%, recording the largest daily drop since September 2022. Major tech stocks all declined, with Tesla closing down over 15%, the largest drop since September 2020, and its stock price halved from its historical high. The combined market value of the seven major tech companies evaporated by over $830 billion on Monday, setting a record for the highest single-day market value loss.The "Black Monday" in U.S. stocks crashed the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin hitting a low of $76,600, the lowest in nearly four months, essentially returning to the level when Trump won the election last year. At the time of writing, it has slightly rebounded to $79,125, with a 24-hour decline of about 3.5%. Mainstream altcoins, including ETH and SOL, were also severely affected, with Ethereum dropping below $1,800, marking the lowest since October 2023.In the foreign exchange market, risk aversion pushed the dollar index up slightly, while the oil market faced pressure, with international oil prices falling by 1.5%. Affected by profit-taking and a weakening stock market, spot gold dropped by 0.7%.In the past two months, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy has intensified market fears of a U.S. economic recession. An increasing number of viewpoints suggest that to achieve long-term goals of tariffs and reducing government size, Trump may tolerate short-term economic and market difficulties. Currently, the Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period ahead of the March 19 FOMC meeting, and the market cannot gain new policy guidance from officials' statements.

Traders expect the S&P 500 index to experience the largest volatility on a non-farm payroll day since the regional banking crisis in March 2023

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by 1.3% this Friday, which will be the largest fluctuation on a non-farm payroll data release day since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Citigroup data shows that the S&P 500 index is expected to have a two-way fluctuation of 1.4% on Wednesday, marking the highest implied volatility since the day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2023.The increase in market volatility is mainly influenced by two factors: the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Trump recently warned of potential future economic fluctuations and defended his plan to significantly raise tariffs, but U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo indicated that Trump is considering some tariff relief measures, which has slightly eased market sentiment.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at its highest level since December of last year, breaking through the 20-point mark. Economists expect that U.S. employment will increase by 160,000 in February, the unemployment rate will remain at 4%, and average hourly earnings will rise by 4.1% year-on-year. UBS equity derivatives strategist Grinkov stated, "Macroeconomic factors are becoming more important; this is a higher volatility environment."

4E: Concerns over tariff policies and economic recession rise, leading to declines in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher News: U.S. consumer confidence in February fell short of expectations, marking the largest monthly decline in over three years. Additionally, Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico after the grace period has heightened market concerns about tariffs and economic recession.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks saw more declines than gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.37%, the S&P 500 falling 0.47%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.35%. Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla plummeting over 8.39%, bringing its market value below $1 trillion, followed closely by Nvidia, which fell 2.8%. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds are withdrawing from U.S. tech and media stocks at the fastest pace in six months, with the seven tech giants entering a technical correction zone.The cryptocurrency market had already led the decline ahead of U.S. stocks yesterday, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,050 at one point and Ethereum hitting a low of $2,313. The cooling of meme coin trends, along with the impending unlocking of a large number of tokens, caused SOL to experience the steepest decline, falling nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $774 million yesterday, continuing a six-day streak of net outflows. The crypto market has remained sluggish since February, and the week started with another significant drop, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 21, the lowest level since September of last year.In the forex market, consumer confidence data pressured the dollar, causing the dollar index to drop 0.2%, approaching a two-month low set on Monday. Market concerns about oil demand, coupled with potential peace negotiations in Russia, led to oil prices falling over 2%. After reaching new highs, investors took profits in gold, with spot gold dropping over 1.2%.A series of weak data recently suggests that the U.S. economy may be heading into recession. The S&P and Nasdaq have seen four consecutive declines, intensifying market worries about the impact of declining consumer confidence and tariff policies on the economy. Traders are generally maintaining a cautious stance, awaiting more economic data and policy guidance.

Bloomberg: Trump's tariff policy is definitely not beneficial for the cryptocurrency market, and the U.S. system lacks effective oversight of the president

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg has questioned a series of actions taken by Trump in the cryptocurrency space since he took office, stating that President Trump and his entourage seem eager to establish their crypto empire. The family not only hopes to pave the way for the U.S. to support cryptocurrencies through more favorable regulations but also aims to secure a place in the positive outcomes.Based on the current (volatile) spot prices, the TRUMP holdings of entities related to Trump have an estimated book value of about $14.9 billion, with risks that are equally incredible. As token buyers and industry insiders see their opportunity to please Trump, the likelihood of quid pro quo and corruption will certainly increase. Additionally, moral hazard is also present.When Eric Trump tweeted a friendly suggestion that Ethereum is worth buying, he was by no means a neutral observer—when he removed the phrase "you can thank me later" from his post on X, he seemed to realize this. Meanwhile, the company has transferred most of its reserves to Coinbase Global Inc., and although it denied any plans to sell, it is difficult to assess what specific insider information might be involved. Trump's tariff policies are certainly not favorable to the crypto market, and the impact of Eric Trump's endorsements is similarly limited.Bloomberg believes that without effective enforcement and strengthening of regulations, oversight of the president's actions will become ineffective, and currently, Trump seems unencumbered by any constraints.
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