Sentiment

Viewpoint: Bitcoin faces short-term pressure, influenced by changes in macroeconomics and market sentiment

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure in the short term due to macroeconomic changes and market sentiment. Despite breaking through the historical high of $108,000 last December, Bitcoin is currently retracing due to a stronger dollar, increased volatility, and cautious trader attitudes. Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric, stated that market signals such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference on December 18 and the significant rise in the Volatility Index (VIX) have increased the probability of short-term declines. He believes that while the outlook is bearish in the short term, the long-term perspective remains bullish.In addition, the unexpected strengthening of the Dollar Index (DXY) has also become a focal point. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the DXY broke through long-standing resistance levels, reflecting market dynamics of global liquidity constraints and safe-haven demand. Singaporean crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out in a report to investors that although favorable regulatory narratives support the spot market, the market environment at the beginning of January may be unstable, as structural risks such as the debt ceiling issue could trigger market volatility. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's performance will continue to be closely related to Federal Reserve policies and the performance of the dollar. The short-term adjustment provides investors with a buying opportunity on dips, but market volatility may pose challenges for investors.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin faces short-term pressure due to changes in macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure in the short term due to macroeconomic changes and market sentiment. Despite breaking through the historical high of $108,000 in December last year, Bitcoin has recently retraced due to a stronger dollar, increased volatility, and cautious trader attitudes. Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric, stated that market signals such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference on December 18 and the significant rise in the volatility index (VIX) have increased the probability of short-term declines. He believes that while the short-term outlook is bearish, the long-term remains bullish.Additionally, the unexpected strength of the Dollar Index (DXY) has become a focal point. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the DXY broke through long-standing resistance levels, reflecting market dynamics of global liquidity constraints and safe-haven demand. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted in a report to investors that while favorable regulatory narratives support the spot market, the market environment at the beginning of January may be unstable, as structural risks such as the debt ceiling issue could trigger market volatility. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's performance will continue to be closely related to Federal Reserve policies and the dollar's performance. The short-term adjustment provides investors with a buying opportunity on dips, but market volatility may pose challenges for investors.

SoSoValue: Today's market risk sentiment VIX index has risen to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates). The market may be overreacting, and it is recommended to maintain risk exposure

ChainCatcher message, according to the SoSoValue macro sector display, on December 18th, at the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 4.25%-4.50%. For the rate cut pace next year, the Federal Reserve adjusted its expectations from "four rate cuts" to "two" through the latest dot plot. In addition, the Federal Reserve raised its expectations for future core PCE inflation and GDP growth, which is consistent with Powell's remarks, all conveying a more "hawkish" signal than the market expected. Data shows that the market risk sentiment VIX index rose to its highest point since early August (when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates).SoSoValue analysts stated that the FOMC proposed an unexpectedly aggressive rate cut plan, coupled with Powell's "hawkish" remarks, led to a shift in market sentiment towards panic, with U.S. Treasuries even overreacting. The U.S. stock market subsequently corrected, while the dollar strengthened. Overall, all risk assets reacted strongly to the FOMC's latest signals. Based on macro data, we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain unchanged, the dollar remains strong, and consensus-driven assets such as cryptocurrencies continue to be a destination for capital inflows. Each market correction driven by sentiment in the game is a good entry point, and we recommend maintaining risk exposure at this time.

QCP Capital: Bitcoin remains firmly driven by market sentiment, with little impact from this week's Federal Reserve meeting

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated today that earlier in the Asian session, Bitcoin surged past $106,500, reaching another milestone. In the past 12 hours, the total amount of short liquidations reached approximately $151 million, driving this rally, as the weekend market lacked liquidity and traders became overly complacent (the funding rate on Deribit briefly turned negative), leading to a squeeze on short positions in the market. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached an all-time high during this wave, further highlighting Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and solidifying its position as a more popular store of value than traditional gold.The inclusion of MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100 index further boosted market sentiment. Michael Saylor hinted that even if the spot price exceeds $100,000, the company may continue to purchase Bitcoin. This inclusion could attract passive capital into MicroStrategy's stock, thereby indirectly making it easier for the company to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. This week's Federal Reserve meeting seems to be merely background noise for Bitcoin, as its movements remain firmly driven by market sentiment. Although the likelihood is low, if the Federal Reserve and Powell take an extremely dovish stance, it could still provide support for further increases in Bitcoin.

4E: Bitcoin's bullish sentiment in December is strong, and this week's "non-farm payrolls + Powell" will set the tone for year-end interest rate cuts

ChainCatcher news, the rise of the "Trump trade" in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, last week all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones increased by 7.5% and the S&P rose by 5.7%, both marking the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq accumulated over 6%. Large tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, achieving its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia accumulating a 179.23% increase this year. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for U.S. stocks.The cryptocurrency market performed impressively in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's rise reached 54%. Altcoins experienced significant gains at the end of the month, with market share continuously expanding; Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a significant average increase in December during the second half of the year, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to strong bullish sentiment in the market.In the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell by 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, with a cumulative increase of 1.72% in November. The "Trump trade" boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward momentum and triggering a sell-off after the election; spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September of last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also become quite nuanced. While the market expects an increased probability of a rate cut in December, the space for cuts in 2025 is continuously decreasing. The "near increase, far decrease" phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about the resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This Thursday's speech by Powell and Friday's non-farm payroll data will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

4E: Powell suppresses interest rate cut expectations, U.S. stocks hit the largest weekly decline in two months, market sentiment declines

ChainCatcher news: After a strong surge following the election, market sentiment has somewhat cooled last week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seems intent on slowing down interest rate cuts, which has dampened the excitement generated by the "Trump trade."According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to weaken after reaching new highs on Monday. On Friday, a significant cut in interest rate expectations put pressure on the stock market, causing it to decline across the board. The S&P 500 index fell 2% over the past five trading days, erasing half of its gains since the election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.24% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.15%, marking its largest weekly decline since September.Bitcoin, after breaking through $93,000 on Wednesday to set a new all-time high, began to consolidate amid the pullback in U.S. stocks but showed resilience. It is currently trading in a narrow range around the $90,000 mark. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $90,799, with a 7-day increase of nearly 12%. Other altcoins followed Bitcoin's fluctuations, with SOL benefiting from the MEME frenzy, demonstrating strong rebound and upward momentum.In the commodities market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve has led to a continued strengthening of the dollar, reaching its highest level in over a year. The dollar index rose 1.6% last week and has increased for seven consecutive weeks. The strong dollar continues to pressure commodities, with spot gold falling about 4.6% last week, marking its largest weekly decline in three years, and retreating nearly 9.3% from its historical high. U.S. oil fell nearly 5%, while Brent crude dropped nearly 4%.Current market focus is on inflation concerns following the Trump administration's rise and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish outlook. Powell's speech on Thursday essentially indicated that Fed officials do not need to rush into rate cuts, leading traders to significantly reduce their rate cut expectations. The retreat in sentiment and uncertainty in monetary policy have increased upward resistance in the market. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.
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