Market focus shifts to US PCE data, BTC fluctuates sideways

Author: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

On Thursday, the cryptocurrency market consolidated as investors awaited tomorrow's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator.

Bitpush data shows that Bitcoin is evenly matched between bulls and bears, with trading prices fluctuating between $60,500 and $62,500. As of the time of writing, the trading price is $61,458, with a 24-hour increase of 0.8%.

Altcoins are rising, with most of the top 200 tokens by market capitalization experiencing gains. Mog Coin (MOG) leads the increase at 31%, followed by SATS (1000SATS) at 16%, and Book of Meme (BOME) at 15.6%. Three AI concept coins are leading the decline, with Fetch.AI (FET) down 13.3%, Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) down 11.8%, and SingularityNET (AGIX) down 11.4%.

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.29 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at approximately 53%.

In the U.S. stock market, as of the close of the day, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rose by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.30%.

In addition to macro data, crypto investors are paying attention to the Biden-Trump debate.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for May will be released on Friday, and investors hope the report will show easing price pressures, providing evidence for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this year.

Additionally, crypto traders are closely watching the upcoming Biden-Trump presidential debate scheduled for 9 PM Eastern Time. It remains unclear whether the two candidates will mention cryptocurrency during the debate, but the election outcome could significantly impact the cryptocurrency industry.

Bitpush previously reported that Standard Chartered predicted in a report that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin could soar to a record $150,000.

Investors Return to Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Data from Farside Investors shows that after seven consecutive days of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investment products, the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs turned positive over the past two days, recording net inflows of $31 million and $21.3 million on June 25 and June 26, respectively. As of June 26, the BTC managed by these funds is valued at approximately $52.61 billion, up from $47 billion in early May.

Meanwhile, one of the first issuers of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., VanEck, has applied to issue a new Solana ETF. The company had also submitted the first Ethereum ETF application in 2021.

Although industry insiders say the probability of the Solana ETF being approved this year is low, this development highlights the increasing acceptance and adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in traditional finance, which helps drive up cryptocurrency market valuations.

Analyst: Bitcoin May Return to $50,000

Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen discussed the possibility of further declines, stating in his podcast that Bitcoin could return to the $50,000 range during a potential "summer slump."

Cowen said, "We could experience a deeper pullback, returning to around $50,000. I do think that is absolutely possible. In the previous cycle, after peaking in 2019, we ultimately pulled back about 50%. Even in 2016, there were some significant pullbacks, like 30% and 40%."

However, Cowen acknowledged that as the asset class matures, volatility is expected to decrease. He said, "You might also see decreasing volatility, and the cycles will continue because it takes more and more capital to push prices up."

Secure Digital Markets analysts believe that BTC is currently testing Tuesday's highs, with the next upward target at $65,000 and strong support at the $60,200 level.

Analyst Bloodgood stated on the X platform, "For altcoin traders, a close below $60,000 only means one thing: a painful summer; otherwise, the future will be a joyful time."

Adjustments May Last for Five Months

Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, discussed how long the BTC price adjustment from the historical high in March might last. By comparing it to price trends over the past few years, he believes Bitcoin is replicating the behavior seen at the end of 2019.

He wrote on the X platform, "The current market is very similar to the adjustments of 2019-2020, and this adjustment is most likely to last for 5 months, with a maximum decline of 46%."

In another chart, the profit share of circulating BTC has decreased by 18%. Adler noted that this corresponds with the overall "pessimistic" sentiment of holders.

Adler added that everything could still change—breaking the status quo would require buying pressure of 500,000 BTC ($31 billion), which could potentially reverse the current downturn.

Market analyst Sage Young is optimistic about the outlook for July, noting that history shows "a drop in Bitcoin prices in June means a double-digit increase in July."

According to data from the crypto derivatives statistics platform Coinglass, aside from this year, BTC has had five poor-performing years in June: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2018, and 2013. After a drop in June, BTC has risen by over 9.6% in the following month, sometimes even as high as 24%.

Sage Young added, "Looking at a larger sample size, the median return for BTC in June is -0.49%, while the median return for BTC in July is 9.6%."